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The fascinating thing to me is that if you bring Tesla valuation up the response is "lol dumb short seller, prepare to lose another X billion this year!". Tesl

The fascinating thing to me is that if you bring Tesla valuation up the response is "lol dumb short seller, prepare to lose another X billion this year!". Tesla's most valuable product definitely isn't anything made in a factory or produced by their programmers, it's the financial cult that has amassed around it. It's people who are putting every penny of their money on Tesla calls and spending every hour of their day making sure to spread the good news of Tesla and metaphorically stoning anyone who dares speak against Elon Musk. This will almost certainly not end well at some point, especially since the valuation exceeds even a scenario where Tesla becomes a global monopoly in a number of industries. How long will it take for the cult to realize this? Maybe never.

mehrdada 6y ago
> making sure to spread the good news of Tesla and metaphorically stoning anyone who dares speak against Elon Musk. That's an interesting take. Even if true today, does not reflect the historical reality at all; in fact I remember quite the opposite: for the majority of the history of the company I remember hearing that he is a clown, Tesla will go bankrupt, the product won't work, false stories on the product by major newspapers, the product won't make money, the factory won't scale.
- new_realist 6y ago
  Elon is a clown; sued for libel and by the SEC; Elon has admitted the company was weeks away from bankruptcy during Model 3 development; my Tesla was a lemon, Tesla makes almost all of its profits from regulatory credits; 500K production was only achieved by creating a second factory (not part of the original 500K projection); the Gigafactory is only 30% done and Tesla has abandoned it in favor of expansion with third party battery manufacturers. So, in all, pretty accurate.
  - mehrdada 6y ago
    Point is there is (or at least was as of 1.5 years ago) way more negative coverage of Tesla than positive, accuracy aside, which contradicts GP's take. There's been enough outlets to show the bad side and it was the most shorted stock which proves the point.
  - toomuchtodo 6y ago
    At what point do you believe your statements are delusional if not when Musk has become to wealthiest person in the world, Tesla one of the most valuable companies by market cap, and the world bends over backwards to get their factories in their backyard or get their cars in their garages? Elon will set foot on Mars and you’ll still have the delusional yelling Tesla is a farce I suppose.
aeternum 6y ago
You might be thinking too small. The USD derives much of its value from the 'petrodollar' deal from the 1970s. Tesla is set to replace oil, so maybe the USD itself will be backed by Tesla.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- yrimaxi 6y ago
  Don’t know why this obvious satire was downvoted.
  - dnissley 6y ago
    Poe's law
jkinudsjknds 6y ago
My impression is that aside from some crazies who generally get downvoted unilaterally, you rarely see antagonistic opposition to saying Tesla is overvalued. This doesn't hold if you instead make a meta observation that claiming it's overvalued would earn antagonism. It's not that surprising. The former is voicing an opinion. The latter is effectively just a pre-emptive insult to everyone who disagrees with you. Similar arguments hold for any popular unpopular opinion.
mgh2 6y ago
I am trying to take a balanced view on this, from both sides (long/lovers and shorts/haters), based on some preliminary research. Please correct/add if I am wrong/missing details. So far some things to be taken into consideration: 1. Investors To be fair, Tesla received bad press before Cathy Wood's predictions came true and decimated all short sellers, leading to a short squeeze (major bull contributor) - Car market: Stock price makes sense based on Ark's predictions, at least for now. Taking into account total addressable market (TAM) and market cap, Tesla's seeming monopoly with its 3-4 year lead on technology compared to all other competitors. - It makes sense how investors are valuing Tesla to include all ICE companies, betting on Elon's probability to capture this market (Market cap -> TAM bet) This is not including additional speculative TAM (insurance, energy, self-driving, etc.). Max bull case based on ARK's 7k prediction = 7k/5 (stock split) = 1.4k price target - Governments are going to start banning ICEs by 2035. So the EV trend is definitely happening. 2. Consumers - Product: Customers reviews and product seem solid. Value proposition to prospective new customers also make sense in terms of saving on gas long term compared to electricity. - Hype: Yes, there is a cult around Elon, and defects or abuses get overlooked in favor of Tesla Biased (shorts): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25360432 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25360432 - Supply: There might be a problem with cobalt supply due to its majority based on Democratic Republic of Congo. Ethical issues aside (child and forced labor)- One tesla contains ~4.5 kg of cobalt, compare this to global electronics' demand, there will be a big shortage (Glencore collaboration). Elon is working with CATL do develop new batteries that get rid of cobalt, but this is a long shot, and even if realized, efficiency with a new tech is at stake. - Demand: There is no doubt current market demand for EVs crossed an inflection point where consumer education is maturing due to Tesla. But most current customers are catered toward the rich (Boomers and Chinese). - There is some research suggesting that millennials (Tesla's next biggest target) don't want to own a car (depreciating asset), let alone afford one- given current economic situation, home ownership (charging), and remote work. Tesla' promise on the $25k car might help here. But they are also the major fans and Robinhood investors in Tesla... Not sure, overall I am glad that Tesla is forcing other companies to follow its lead, but a level headed approach is always good advice. Note: I don't own a car or Tesla stock
- mgh2 6y ago
  *should add: - Tesla’s TAM: https://blog.nvstr.com/what-is-tam-and-why-is-it-critical-to-understanding-stocks-39c44384b436 https://blog.nvstr.com/what-is-tam-and-why-is-it-critical-to... - The “rich” buying Teslas also include tech and other high earning workers- including millennials (as exception to the demographic trend) - Supply: Not only cobalt but chips shortage https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25686248 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25686248 - Pandemic caused real state boom out of cities to suburbs and remote work trend might help Tesla (home charging). Fear for public transport, for using gasoline stations and shared drives could change consumer EV ownership views

mehrdada 6y ago

> making sure to spread the good news of Tesla and metaphorically stoning anyone who dares speak against Elon Musk. That's an interesting take. Even if true today, does not reflect the historical reality at all; in fact I remember quite the opposite: for the majority of the history of the company I remember hearing that he is a clown, Tesla will go bankrupt, the product won't work, false stories on the product by major newspapers, the product won't make money, the factory won't scale.

new_realist 6y ago
Elon is a clown; sued for libel and by the SEC; Elon has admitted the company was weeks away from bankruptcy during Model 3 development; my Tesla was a lemon, Tesla makes almost all of its profits from regulatory credits; 500K production was only achieved by creating a second factory (not part of the original 500K projection); the Gigafactory is only 30% done and Tesla has abandoned it in favor of expansion with third party battery manufacturers. So, in all, pretty accurate.
- mehrdada 6y ago
  Point is there is (or at least was as of 1.5 years ago) way more negative coverage of Tesla than positive, accuracy aside, which contradicts GP's take. There's been enough outlets to show the bad side and it was the most shorted stock which proves the point.
- toomuchtodo 6y ago
  At what point do you believe your statements are delusional if not when Musk has become to wealthiest person in the world, Tesla one of the most valuable companies by market cap, and the world bends over backwards to get their factories in their backyard or get their cars in their garages? Elon will set foot on Mars and you’ll still have the delusional yelling Tesla is a farce I suppose.

aeternum 6y ago

You might be thinking too small. The USD derives much of its value from the 'petrodollar' deal from the 1970s. Tesla is set to replace oil, so maybe the USD itself will be backed by Tesla.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
yrimaxi 6y ago
Don’t know why this obvious satire was downvoted.
- dnissley 6y ago
  Poe's law

jkinudsjknds 6y ago

My impression is that aside from some crazies who generally get downvoted unilaterally, you rarely see antagonistic opposition to saying Tesla is overvalued. This doesn't hold if you instead make a meta observation that claiming it's overvalued would earn antagonism. It's not that surprising. The former is voicing an opinion. The latter is effectively just a pre-emptive insult to everyone who disagrees with you. Similar arguments hold for any popular unpopular opinion.

mgh2 6y ago

I am trying to take a balanced view on this, from both sides (long/lovers and shorts/haters), based on some preliminary research. Please correct/add if I am wrong/missing details. So far some things to be taken into consideration: 1. Investors To be fair, Tesla received bad press before Cathy Wood's predictions came true and decimated all short sellers, leading to a short squeeze (major bull contributor) - Car market: Stock price makes sense based on Ark's predictions, at least for now. Taking into account total addressable market (TAM) and market cap, Tesla's seeming monopoly with its 3-4 year lead on technology compared to all other competitors. - It makes sense how investors are valuing Tesla to include all ICE companies, betting on Elon's probability to capture this market (Market cap -> TAM bet) This is not including additional speculative TAM (insurance, energy, self-driving, etc.). Max bull case based on ARK's 7k prediction = 7k/5 (stock split) = 1.4k price target - Governments are going to start banning ICEs by 2035. So the EV trend is definitely happening. 2. Consumers - Product: Customers reviews and product seem solid. Value proposition to prospective new customers also make sense in terms of saving on gas long term compared to electricity. - Hype: Yes, there is a cult around Elon, and defects or abuses get overlooked in favor of Tesla Biased (shorts): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25360432 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25360432 - Supply: There might be a problem with cobalt supply due to its majority based on Democratic Republic of Congo. Ethical issues aside (child and forced labor)- One tesla contains ~4.5 kg of cobalt, compare this to global electronics' demand, there will be a big shortage (Glencore collaboration). Elon is working with CATL do develop new batteries that get rid of cobalt, but this is a long shot, and even if realized, efficiency with a new tech is at stake. - Demand: There is no doubt current market demand for EVs crossed an inflection point where consumer education is maturing due to Tesla. But most current customers are catered toward the rich (Boomers and Chinese). - There is some research suggesting that millennials (Tesla's next biggest target) don't want to own a car (depreciating asset), let alone afford one- given current economic situation, home ownership (charging), and remote work. Tesla' promise on the $25k car might help here. But they are also the major fans and Robinhood investors in Tesla... Not sure, overall I am glad that Tesla is forcing other companies to follow its lead, but a level headed approach is always good advice. Note: I don't own a car or Tesla stock

mgh2 6y ago
*should add: - Tesla’s TAM: https://blog.nvstr.com/what-is-tam-and-why-is-it-critical-to-understanding-stocks-39c44384b436 https://blog.nvstr.com/what-is-tam-and-why-is-it-critical-to... - The “rich” buying Teslas also include tech and other high earning workers- including millennials (as exception to the demographic trend) - Supply: Not only cobalt but chips shortage https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25686248 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25686248 - Pandemic caused real state boom out of cities to suburbs and remote work trend might help Tesla (home charging). Fear for public transport, for using gasoline stations and shared drives could change consumer EV ownership views