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At least with BTC, if previous data is any decent indicator of future value (big IF), I think the price will come crashing down and land at probably $12k-$15k o

At least with BTC, if previous data is any decent indicator of future value (big IF), I think the price will come crashing down and land at probably $12k-$15k or so. My personal opinion is that the prices are driven by FOMO / hype / speculation, just like they were in 2014 and 2018. Big spikes in price that last a couple of months, then back to the trend-line. That line is growing with time, even a bit more than linear - a very slow exponential growth. From the people I speak with in the BTC camp, you seem to have two parties: 1) Those that believe crypto will replace fiat, and sincerely believe that there's no point in trading crypto for fiat - so they only purchase, and never sell. 2) The vast majority: Those that wait for some magic number, and will sell as soon as it's been crossed. edit: with that said, I think fundamentally a lot of institutional investors are getting in on the game because of zero interest rates, uncertainty around COVID, and in general trying crypto out for alternative risky / high-yield investments.

prepend 6y ago
Purely anecdotally, I know a bunch of people who took their COVID check, and since they were working and unaffected, and just bought crypto. The timing of this spike doesn’t correspond to the checks well, but my intuition says they are sort of related. People with jobs that are anti-fragile to covid seem much more likely to understand Bitcoin.
sekai 6y ago
I'd say the current BTC state in this cycle is similar to the beginning of 2017. Regular people are still sleeping on this, not minding it too much. ALTS are barely pumping, compared to the 100x's they did in 2017. BTC will simmer down and correct, but when, that's the question.
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Retric 6y ago
What interesting isn’t the price, what’s interesting is the relative stability. Bitcoin is up almost 2x the peak from 3 years ago which isn’t that exciting from a ROI perspective. Tesla for example hit 10x over the last 3 years peak to peak. The current peak might go much higher, but without that the peak to peak growth slowdown may discourage a lot of people long on Bitcoin. In other words if the price falls to 20k without hitting 100k, you might see a truly giant sell off. PS: Peak to peak growth is what’s important from an long term investment standpoint. You could have made great returns investing in say gold at the right time, but gold is a terrible option across 40+ year timescales.
barnabee 6y ago
3) those who believe BTC is likely to be a pretty good store of value regardless of whether (1) happens or not and include it in their portfolios on the belief that it will therefore not lose value vs cash (fiat) and may well increase in price significantly as more investors come to the same conclusion.
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prepend 6y ago

Purely anecdotally, I know a bunch of people who took their COVID check, and since they were working and unaffected, and just bought crypto. The timing of this spike doesn’t correspond to the checks well, but my intuition says they are sort of related. People with jobs that are anti-fragile to covid seem much more likely to understand Bitcoin.

sekai 6y ago

I'd say the current BTC state in this cycle is similar to the beginning of 2017. Regular people are still sleeping on this, not minding it too much. ALTS are barely pumping, compared to the 100x's they did in 2017. BTC will simmer down and correct, but when, that's the question.

deleted 6y ago

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Retric 6y ago

What interesting isn’t the price, what’s interesting is the relative stability. Bitcoin is up almost 2x the peak from 3 years ago which isn’t that exciting from a ROI perspective. Tesla for example hit 10x over the last 3 years peak to peak. The current peak might go much higher, but without that the peak to peak growth slowdown may discourage a lot of people long on Bitcoin. In other words if the price falls to 20k without hitting 100k, you might see a truly giant sell off. PS: Peak to peak growth is what’s important from an long term investment standpoint. You could have made great returns investing in say gold at the right time, but gold is a terrible option across 40+ year timescales.

barnabee 6y ago

3) those who believe BTC is likely to be a pretty good store of value regardless of whether (1) happens or not and include it in their portfolios on the belief that it will therefore not lose value vs cash (fiat) and may well increase in price significantly as more investors come to the same conclusion.

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