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The projected natural end of this pandemic would come within a year when the majority of the population got infected. As a society we've decided to not let this
by lolc 6y ago
The projected natural end of this pandemic would come within a year when the majority of the population got infected. As a society we've decided to not let this happen. Which is why the numbers diverge from your simplistic formula.
> A fast spreading variant could overall reduce deaths over the next 5 years.
What do you mean by this?
- postalrat 6y ago> What do you mean by this? Assume being infected from this variant grants some protection to future variants. If everyone was infected (or vaccinated) and protected then it would be difficult for the virus to spread and mutate. A slower spreading virus would produce more mutations over time and its possible one of those mutations could be catastrophic (though unlikely). Not only do you have more mutations but you also have fewer people protected.
- lolc 6y ago> A slower spreading virus would produce more mutations over time Mutation is not primarily a function of time but of infections. So mutation is higher when there are more hosts. Letting the virus infect people leads to more mutations. Now we're probably not talking about the same thing when we say mutations. I mean the sum-total of mutations. You mean successful mutations. But here comes the connection: The virus is more likely to evolve into infecting vaccinated people when it is more widespread. Because there are more mutations and consequently more chances for one of them to evade the immune response of vaccinated people.