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> In the end, the entire human race will be exposed to SARS-COV-2. This statement is false. (With regard to any reasonable definition of exposure to the curre

> In the end, the entire human race will be exposed to SARS-COV-2. This statement is false. (With regard to any reasonable definition of exposure to the current virulent strains and assuming the vaccines do their job.) One major purpose of the vaccines is to cause R < 1 and the virus to fade out, so that most humans will not be exposed to the virus ever in their lives. The other major purpose is for those humans who are exposed to it, to significantly reduce the chance of the virus causing harm. Like putting out a fire before it spreads everywhere. Some things are burned but not everything is even touched by the flame, if it's put out.

PaulDavisThe1st 6y ago
The epidemiology I saw near the beginning of the pandemic was fairly clear that even when R0 drops substantially below 1, the virus will be endemic to human existence. Sure, it's certainly up for debate (and the future) whether or not the rate will drop low enough that most humans escape exposure. That will depend on more than just R0 - we still don't know if the vaccines (any of them) prevent transference, and the emergence of new variants with higher R0 values but identical infection mechanisms (which most people would agree is the same virus) may also complicate this quite a bit. So sure, maybe I should have dialed it back to "it's entirely possible that the entire human race will be exposed to SARS-COV-2, though if we are lucky that probably won't happen". I don't think that changes my fundamental point that the crisis for a pandemic like this is not in personal health - "Am I going to die?" - but in the public health - "can my society's health care systems still function?"
- jlokier 6y ago
  I read that too, when the epidemiologists were saying it could become endemic, but if it does, it's unlikely to be the current virulence, which is what counts when discussing deaths etc. The evolution of viruses like this is they tend to mutate into milder strains as they become endemic. At that point the milder version may still cause excess deaths (like flu does, and unfortunately it would be in addition to flu deaths), but not at the same virulence. But an endemic virus does not necessarily mean every human will be exposed to it. There are diseases which are almost but not quite eradicated by widespread vaccination, and keep going in clusters, surviving in pockets here and there.

PaulDavisThe1st 6y ago

The epidemiology I saw near the beginning of the pandemic was fairly clear that even when R0 drops substantially below 1, the virus will be endemic to human existence. Sure, it's certainly up for debate (and the future) whether or not the rate will drop low enough that most humans escape exposure. That will depend on more than just R0 - we still don't know if the vaccines (any of them) prevent transference, and the emergence of new variants with higher R0 values but identical infection mechanisms (which most people would agree is the same virus) may also complicate this quite a bit. So sure, maybe I should have dialed it back to "it's entirely possible that the entire human race will be exposed to SARS-COV-2, though if we are lucky that probably won't happen". I don't think that changes my fundamental point that the crisis for a pandemic like this is not in personal health - "Am I going to die?" - but in the public health - "can my society's health care systems still function?"

jlokier 6y ago
I read that too, when the epidemiologists were saying it could become endemic, but if it does, it's unlikely to be the current virulence, which is what counts when discussing deaths etc. The evolution of viruses like this is they tend to mutate into milder strains as they become endemic. At that point the milder version may still cause excess deaths (like flu does, and unfortunately it would be in addition to flu deaths), but not at the same virulence. But an endemic virus does not necessarily mean every human will be exposed to it. There are diseases which are almost but not quite eradicated by widespread vaccination, and keep going in clusters, surviving in pockets here and there.