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We are right now observing exponential spread of a virus. And we don't want to hit the natural end of exponential spread for this virus.

by lolc 6y ago

postalrat 6y ago
I've been hearing that for months. If coronavirus had a doubling time of 7 days we should be well over 1,000,000,000,000,000 cases by now. And you or nobody else knows what the natural end would be for this virus. A fast spreading variant could overall reduce deaths over the next 5 years.
- lolc 6y ago
  The projected natural end of this pandemic would come within a year when the majority of the population got infected. As a society we've decided to not let this happen. Which is why the numbers diverge from your simplistic formula. > A fast spreading variant could overall reduce deaths over the next 5 years. What do you mean by this?
  - postalrat 6y ago
    > What do you mean by this? Assume being infected from this variant grants some protection to future variants. If everyone was infected (or vaccinated) and protected then it would be difficult for the virus to spread and mutate. A slower spreading virus would produce more mutations over time and its possible one of those mutations could be catastrophic (though unlikely). Not only do you have more mutations but you also have fewer people protected.
    - lolc 6y ago
      > A slower spreading virus would produce more mutations over time Mutation is not primarily a function of time but of infections. So mutation is higher when there are more hosts. Letting the virus infect people leads to more mutations. Now we're probably not talking about the same thing when we say mutations. I mean the sum-total of mutations. You mean successful mutations. But here comes the connection: The virus is more likely to evolve into infecting vaccinated people when it is more widespread. Because there are more mutations and consequently more chances for one of them to evade the immune response of vaccinated people.
- apexalpha 6y ago
  Coronavirus will grow exponentially IF you let it! That's why we're all wearing face masks, limiting social interaction and even put whole countries in a full lockdown. WE all do this to LOWER the spread of the virus.
  - postalrat 6y ago
    Nothing grows "exponentially" for long. Because if it did it would overtake the universe.

We are right now observing exponential spread of a virus. And we don't want to hit the natural end of exponential spread for this virus.

by lolc 6y ago

We are right now observing exponential spread of a virus. And we don't want to hit the natural end of exponential spread for this virus.

postalrat 6y ago

I've been hearing that for months. If coronavirus had a doubling time of 7 days we should be well over 1,000,000,000,000,000 cases by now. And you or nobody else knows what the natural end would be for this virus. A fast spreading variant could overall reduce deaths over the next 5 years.

lolc 6y ago
The projected natural end of this pandemic would come within a year when the majority of the population got infected. As a society we've decided to not let this happen. Which is why the numbers diverge from your simplistic formula. > A fast spreading variant could overall reduce deaths over the next 5 years. What do you mean by this?
- postalrat 6y ago
  > What do you mean by this? Assume being infected from this variant grants some protection to future variants. If everyone was infected (or vaccinated) and protected then it would be difficult for the virus to spread and mutate. A slower spreading virus would produce more mutations over time and its possible one of those mutations could be catastrophic (though unlikely). Not only do you have more mutations but you also have fewer people protected.
  - lolc 6y ago
    > A slower spreading virus would produce more mutations over time Mutation is not primarily a function of time but of infections. So mutation is higher when there are more hosts. Letting the virus infect people leads to more mutations. Now we're probably not talking about the same thing when we say mutations. I mean the sum-total of mutations. You mean successful mutations. But here comes the connection: The virus is more likely to evolve into infecting vaccinated people when it is more widespread. Because there are more mutations and consequently more chances for one of them to evade the immune response of vaccinated people.
apexalpha 6y ago
Coronavirus will grow exponentially IF you let it! That's why we're all wearing face masks, limiting social interaction and even put whole countries in a full lockdown. WE all do this to LOWER the spread of the virus.
- postalrat 6y ago
  Nothing grows "exponentially" for long. Because if it did it would overtake the universe.