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> Cases have already started to level in London. Lockdown has been implemented too late to make any significant difference to that. This is a common claim and
by alimw 6y ago
> Cases have already started to level in London. Lockdown has been implemented too late to make any significant difference to that.
This is a common claim and I have seen it made about various periods of lockdown in various countries. "Look, rate of increase started to slow within a week of lockdown, but it should take two weeks to see the effect, so it can't be that lockdown has made any difference." There is usually far too much noise in the figures to make such a claim about small differences in time scale. Also if you were expecting a sudden drop after two weeks then you were bound to be disappointed. The amount of time it takes for an infection to become a recorded case of Covid will be random according to some distribution (possibly with a mean of one or two weeks) so the transition will be smooth.
- oxfordmale 6y agoI am not suggesting lockdowns do not work. Hospital peak was predicted to be around the 10th of January well before lockdown was announced and that has not shifted. Lockdown is undoubtedly going to change the shape of the curve after the peak has passed, but it didn't move the actual peak.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- okl 6y agoAdd to that additional delays because of the holidays.
- spion 6y agoAdding android mobility trends % increase in stay at home is more illuminating. Qute a large percentage of the people that can afford to "lock down" already do: https://imgur.com/jPctkws https://imgur.com/jPctkws (thats London) but lockdowns do add another layer to that.