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I agree that the "best case" scenario should probably involve some impact from the lockdown (after a delay), but given the experience in California (which was t
by rossdavidh 6y ago
I agree that the "best case" scenario should probably involve some impact from the lockdown (after a delay), but given the experience in California (which was that the lockdown didn't slow things down much, if at all), it seems at least plausible to look at what happens if the same is true in the U.K.
- toyg 6y agoBig lockdowns last year definitely made an impact in England and Italy. I expect it will be the same now. What failed here in UK was the regional approach, the continuous attempts at unfounded optimism, and the attitude that covid-related rules were just another game to play and cheat at (like a minster saying that a scotch egg is “a substantial meal” which can justify going to the pub...). The population doesn’t take the message seriously unless the gravity of the situation is stressed and the necessary plans are clear, simple, consistent throughout, and ruthlessly enforced. When most of that happened, lockdowns worked.
- Taurenking 6y agoThey made so much of an impact that we're still battling with the virus 8 months later
- toyg 6y agoThe critical issue is to ensure the health system is not overwhelmed, and that was achieved. Prolonging the agony is actually a result of unwillingness to extend hard lockdowns for 4+ straight months over whole countries - we keep lowering restrictions as soon as possible. But sure, things might have definitely been faster if only we just let more people die.
- ben_w 6y agoI’m not an epidemiologist, so I’m going out on a limb with this, but: Looking at the infection rate curve, I think the lockdown was working right up until the more-infectious strain took over. (“People tested positive” graph: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/)