I'm probably going to get the maths wrong here, please correct me kind stranger! So closing schools and universities reduces R values by 38% (16%-54%) per your

I'm probably going to get the maths wrong here, please correct me kind stranger! So closing schools and universities reduces R values by 38% (16%-54%) per your excellent link. England R value is about 1.3 at last count. 1.3*(1-38%) = 0.806 So hopefully that's enough. I'm a cynic and pessimistic so I worry that: London is likely higher (more workers, denser, people use public transport). Keeping nurseries open and some pupils in schools will reduce the 38%. The spike from christmas/new year will ruin things. I guess the optimist would say: 1.3m people vaccinated (especially in high risk groups) means the hospitalisation rate should go down.