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> So, er, what if the growth trends are suppressed by the tighter lockdown, as seems likely? Will things then be better than the "best" case scenario? There's
by flukus 6y ago
> So, er, what if the growth trends are suppressed by the tighter lockdown, as seems likely? Will things then be better than the "best" case scenario?
There's two lag factors to consider. The first is the lag between restrictions and cases dropping, this takes a couple of weeks and cases and the growth isn't likely to even slow for 1 week. The second is the lag between infections and people getting seriously sick and needing hospitalization, that takes 3-4 weeks. There's also the serious possibility that the restrictions arn't strict enough to make a big difference.
This scenario is basically baked in, avoiding it required action weeks earlier.
- andy_ppp 6y agoOr because of the incompetence of those in charge people just don’t take the lockdown seriously...
- Blahah 6y agoNobody is in charge of people's perspectives. The UK has really gone all in on psychosocial nudge tactics in this pandemic, and it has massively failed so far. Arguably, they've done so because they knew the population were so belligerent and arrogantly ignorant that a more direct approach would definitely fail. They have leveraged the 'new variant' to implement at the last moment the measures that were being recommended for months by all their expert committees. People here don't want to be told what to do and there are very well organised efforts to encourage people to feel empowered in their ignorance and irresponsibility. The 'people in charge' aren't the only ones to blame for that.