4 ms·

> Is that what you were predicting 3 years ago, still predicting? What is the biggest social crisis there now, for every opportunistic force to take advantage

> Is that what you were predicting 3 years ago, still predicting? What is the biggest social crisis there now, for every opportunistic force to take advantage off? One need to be very, very blind not to see it coming, especially living in a major US city.

andromeduck 6y ago
Gun control or land use causing inequality and social calcification?
- JKCalhoun 6y ago
  I think s/he might be referring to COVID but it is pretty unclear.
  - baybal2 6y ago
    COVID epidemic is not a social crisis, but you certainly can spin it as one.
JKCalhoun 6y ago
I still don't see how you are connecting the dots. A lot more needs to be in place for civil war. Pretty sure the monied interests have no desire for civil war — the opposite was the case in the mid 19th Century.
- baybal2 6y ago
  > A lot more needs to be in place for civil war. True, really a lot. In needs a nation on the edge for it to decide to turn on itself. And a nation on the edge it is. > Pretty sure the monied interests have no desire for civil war — the opposite was the case in the mid 19th Century. And so thought monied interests of the Old World when a wave of civil wars sped through the continent, and the Spring of Nations happened after few decades of turmoil. And historians err here, taking desirable, for believable. "The Two Terrible Decades," aren't called that for nothing. They were devastating for both of Europe's Old, and New Money. It were the same upper classes socialites who wrote the term in the history books after all.
  - rootusrootus 6y ago
    > In needs a nation on the edge for it to decide to turn on itself It would help if there were some geographical lines, as well. Are you envisioning the next civil war will be simultaneous sieges of all the major cities in the US?
    - baybal2 6y ago
      Are you envisioning the next civil war will be simultaneous sieges of all the major cities in the US? No, most likely the same North-South split, with a bit of interior, vs exterior element to it.
      - rootusrootus 6y ago
        That seems implausible. Slavery is no longer the overt separation between the areas. Democrats in Atlanta agree with Democrats in Portland far more than they agree with Republicans in rural Georgia. There's no basis for a civil war. Revolution is the closest we'd get, but neither side has anywhere near enough power to suppress the entirety of the other. Plus, when the shit hits the fan, the reasonable among us seem to suddenly conclude maybe we don't really care to fight about this. Yesterday is a classic example. These folks at the capitol like to think they were going to start the war and everyone else would join in. What really happens, of course, is that they find out how limited their numbers are, and that regular people will simply direct the police to squash the insurrection.
        baybal2 6y ago
        American socio-economic divide is very much geographical, unless the only poor people you know are urban homeless. And this divide lines uncannily along the lines from centuries ago.

andromeduck 6y ago

Gun control or land use causing inequality and social calcification?

JKCalhoun 6y ago
I think s/he might be referring to COVID but it is pretty unclear.
- baybal2 6y ago
  COVID epidemic is not a social crisis, but you certainly can spin it as one.

JKCalhoun 6y ago

I still don't see how you are connecting the dots. A lot more needs to be in place for civil war. Pretty sure the monied interests have no desire for civil war — the opposite was the case in the mid 19th Century.

baybal2 6y ago
> A lot more needs to be in place for civil war. True, really a lot. In needs a nation on the edge for it to decide to turn on itself. And a nation on the edge it is. > Pretty sure the monied interests have no desire for civil war — the opposite was the case in the mid 19th Century. And so thought monied interests of the Old World when a wave of civil wars sped through the continent, and the Spring of Nations happened after few decades of turmoil. And historians err here, taking desirable, for believable. "The Two Terrible Decades," aren't called that for nothing. They were devastating for both of Europe's Old, and New Money. It were the same upper classes socialites who wrote the term in the history books after all.
- rootusrootus 6y ago
  > In needs a nation on the edge for it to decide to turn on itself It would help if there were some geographical lines, as well. Are you envisioning the next civil war will be simultaneous sieges of all the major cities in the US?
  - baybal2 6y ago
    Are you envisioning the next civil war will be simultaneous sieges of all the major cities in the US? No, most likely the same North-South split, with a bit of interior, vs exterior element to it.
    - rootusrootus 6y ago
      That seems implausible. Slavery is no longer the overt separation between the areas. Democrats in Atlanta agree with Democrats in Portland far more than they agree with Republicans in rural Georgia. There's no basis for a civil war. Revolution is the closest we'd get, but neither side has anywhere near enough power to suppress the entirety of the other. Plus, when the shit hits the fan, the reasonable among us seem to suddenly conclude maybe we don't really care to fight about this. Yesterday is a classic example. These folks at the capitol like to think they were going to start the war and everyone else would join in. What really happens, of course, is that they find out how limited their numbers are, and that regular people will simply direct the police to squash the insurrection.
      - baybal2 6y ago
        American socio-economic divide is very much geographical, unless the only poor people you know are urban homeless. And this divide lines uncannily along the lines from centuries ago.