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Not forever. Their economic growth will end due to demographic, technological, and geopolitical reasons. They are aging rapidly due to one child which makes the
by pretendscholar 6y ago
Not forever. Their economic growth will end due to demographic, technological, and geopolitical reasons. They are aging rapidly due to one child which makes their labor cost 8 times (inflation adjusted) what it cost in 2000 and most of the countries with any wealth who china would export to are post consumption because they are also rapidly aging. Automation has made it cheaper for many industries to produce goods closer to end markets rather than ship it half way around the world. Geopolitically countries like the us have lost interest in the doctrine of free trade and covid-19 in particular sped this up by exposing the vulnerabilities of long supply chains for critical supplies.
- lqqq 6y agoNot forever but long enough. Note that they are involved in numerous regions economically and politically, placing different debt-traps. The one child policy is also removed. Automation is good, yet it is not as cheap as slavery. I don't see anything like you described will happen anytime soon without major changes of political powers, policies across the globe.
- pretendscholar 6y agoDebt they can't collect on. Its already over. They may have had a few more years without covid but now its over. Just like with japan in the late 80s people haven't caught up to the situation on the ground yet.