6 ms·

It's easily observable that colds are more common in winter (at least in temperate climates where winter is the cold season). I've just always had trouble buyin

It's easily observable that colds are more common in winter (at least in temperate climates where winter is the cold season). I've just always had trouble buying the argument that "people spend more time in enclosed spaces" in winter. At least not a degree significant enough to make a difference. I go to an office and spend the same amount of time in it in the winter and in the summer. Employees at meatpacking plants and Starbucks baristas don't get to work outside in the summertime. Children still go to school, their school days are just as long, and they don't have classes outside even if the weather allows it. You still have to walk the dog, whether it's summer or winter. All the outdoor activities that are easier to do in warmer weather just don't seem to be universal enough to explain effects on a whole population. Most people spend very little time hiking outdoors. As a fraction of the total number of people in the entire country, the number of people who play tennis outdoors is probably tiny. Drinking at the bar versus drinking on an outdoor patio barely seems worth mentioning. Maybe the cold epidemics are driven by agricultural workers who stay indoors in winter? At least they're pretty numerous, there are more of them than there are tennis players...

maelito 6y ago
> I go to an office and spend the same amount of time in it in the winter and in the summer. Employees at meatpacking plants and Starbucks baristas don't get to work outside in the summertime. Children still go to school, their school days are just as long, and they don't have classes outside even if the weather allows it. You still have to walk the dog, whether it's summer or winter. This is very different in my case (France). In the summer, windows are often open, which suffice to make a big difference I believe, work and home. Never in winter. In summer, half or our work meals are eaten outside or in well ventilated restaurants. Winter -> at most you walk fast 2 minutes to get in a hot building again. Social activites are all closed rooms in winter.
- legerdemain 6y ago
  Ah! What a fascinating world. The parts of the US that I am familiar with make extremely widespread use of indoor climate control. Many buildings, such as offices and schools, have windows that barely open or don't open at all. And even if the weather permits you to eat outdoors, there usually isn't enough public space where you could do it comfortably and safely. I guess you could drive to a restaurant and then eat in your car with the windows rolled down.
  - graeme 6y ago
    Notably the US had high summer covid cases in the AC belt, in contrast to the northeast and also in contrast to canada and europe, where hermetically sealed environments are less common. I’d be curious to know what flu and cold season is like in the south. There may also be seasonal changes to hvac systems in milder climates. They all have varying degrees of recirculation vs bringing in outside air. If you are running heavy ac or heavy heating, it costs more to bring in outside air. So there may be seasonal variations in recirculation settings even within the same sealed environment. I’m less confident on this point though as I don’t know hvac’s very well and they are supposed to filter viruses.
maxerickson 6y ago
Humidity factors into how long many viruses can remain viable. Covid lasts longer in dryer air. Beach trips, playgrounds, etc probably do add up.
- collyw 6y ago
  > Beach trips, playgrounds, etc probably do add up. It's killed quite quickly in UV light.
  - maxerickson 6y ago
    Add up to reduced time spent indoors. The messaging telling people not to spend time outside was terrible. With reasonable spacing it isn't a big risk, and there is less opportunity for it now.
    - collyw 6y ago
      Exactly, especially when vitamin D (the one your body generates from sunlight) appears to be a factor in severity of infections. So much of the response doesn't make sense. Lockdown because China did it. Then keep on locking down despite it not appearing to make a big difference. I just heard that beds in the UK hospitals were reduced so allow for social distancing.
kolinko 6y ago
Even if offices are similar summer/winter a tom of other places are not: - schools ventillate more - people sit outside vs inside in restaurants and bars - public transit is way more crowded if you live in a city center (because people don’t walk as much) Also, at least in Poland, the flu season usually comes in Autumn and Spring, not Winter, when the temperatures are the lowest. My personal bet: children go to schools in September, and distribute germs across population in October/November. February-March is an afternath of Christmass and winter holidays in Jan/Feb.
- legerdemain 6y ago
  I don't know about Poland, but those factors don't really apply in the parts of the US I am familiar with. - If buildings have climate control, which many schools and offices do, you are generally discouraged or prevented from opening windows. For example, a typical architecture for American public schools creates many entirely windowless classrooms. - A significant majority of American restaurants, in my experience, only have indoor seating, except for maybe a small number of tables outside. This is because sidewalks are narrow, and many restaurants are located in strip malls with shared parking lots. The strip mall is probably the most common form of American retail development. While burger chains like McDonald's and Burger King will typically occupy free-standing buildings in the middle of a parking lot, they also rarely have any outdoor seating, probably because of the hazard presented by cars at the drive-thru line. - In my experience, public transit in many American cities is insignificant. In the cities where public transit is a lifeline (such as the New York City subway, the DC metro, and the California Caltrain), ridership is high year-round and you also don't have much freedom to open windows. (And in a subway tunnel, why would you?)
  - kolinko 6y ago
    Hm, you’re right - what I said applies to Poland (perhaps Europe), but in SF/NYC/possibly rest of US it’s different and exactly like you said.

maelito 6y ago

> I go to an office and spend the same amount of time in it in the winter and in the summer. Employees at meatpacking plants and Starbucks baristas don't get to work outside in the summertime. Children still go to school, their school days are just as long, and they don't have classes outside even if the weather allows it. You still have to walk the dog, whether it's summer or winter. This is very different in my case (France). In the summer, windows are often open, which suffice to make a big difference I believe, work and home. Never in winter. In summer, half or our work meals are eaten outside or in well ventilated restaurants. Winter -> at most you walk fast 2 minutes to get in a hot building again. Social activites are all closed rooms in winter.

legerdemain 6y ago
Ah! What a fascinating world. The parts of the US that I am familiar with make extremely widespread use of indoor climate control. Many buildings, such as offices and schools, have windows that barely open or don't open at all. And even if the weather permits you to eat outdoors, there usually isn't enough public space where you could do it comfortably and safely. I guess you could drive to a restaurant and then eat in your car with the windows rolled down.
- graeme 6y ago
  Notably the US had high summer covid cases in the AC belt, in contrast to the northeast and also in contrast to canada and europe, where hermetically sealed environments are less common. I’d be curious to know what flu and cold season is like in the south. There may also be seasonal changes to hvac systems in milder climates. They all have varying degrees of recirculation vs bringing in outside air. If you are running heavy ac or heavy heating, it costs more to bring in outside air. So there may be seasonal variations in recirculation settings even within the same sealed environment. I’m less confident on this point though as I don’t know hvac’s very well and they are supposed to filter viruses.

maxerickson 6y ago

Humidity factors into how long many viruses can remain viable. Covid lasts longer in dryer air. Beach trips, playgrounds, etc probably do add up.

collyw 6y ago
> Beach trips, playgrounds, etc probably do add up. It's killed quite quickly in UV light.
- maxerickson 6y ago
  Add up to reduced time spent indoors. The messaging telling people not to spend time outside was terrible. With reasonable spacing it isn't a big risk, and there is less opportunity for it now.
  - collyw 6y ago
    Exactly, especially when vitamin D (the one your body generates from sunlight) appears to be a factor in severity of infections. So much of the response doesn't make sense. Lockdown because China did it. Then keep on locking down despite it not appearing to make a big difference. I just heard that beds in the UK hospitals were reduced so allow for social distancing.

kolinko 6y ago

Even if offices are similar summer/winter a tom of other places are not: - schools ventillate more - people sit outside vs inside in restaurants and bars - public transit is way more crowded if you live in a city center (because people don’t walk as much) Also, at least in Poland, the flu season usually comes in Autumn and Spring, not Winter, when the temperatures are the lowest. My personal bet: children go to schools in September, and distribute germs across population in October/November. February-March is an afternath of Christmass and winter holidays in Jan/Feb.

legerdemain 6y ago
I don't know about Poland, but those factors don't really apply in the parts of the US I am familiar with. - If buildings have climate control, which many schools and offices do, you are generally discouraged or prevented from opening windows. For example, a typical architecture for American public schools creates many entirely windowless classrooms. - A significant majority of American restaurants, in my experience, only have indoor seating, except for maybe a small number of tables outside. This is because sidewalks are narrow, and many restaurants are located in strip malls with shared parking lots. The strip mall is probably the most common form of American retail development. While burger chains like McDonald's and Burger King will typically occupy free-standing buildings in the middle of a parking lot, they also rarely have any outdoor seating, probably because of the hazard presented by cars at the drive-thru line. - In my experience, public transit in many American cities is insignificant. In the cities where public transit is a lifeline (such as the New York City subway, the DC metro, and the California Caltrain), ridership is high year-round and you also don't have much freedom to open windows. (And in a subway tunnel, why would you?)
- kolinko 6y ago
  Hm, you’re right - what I said applies to Poland (perhaps Europe), but in SF/NYC/possibly rest of US it’s different and exactly like you said.