I think there might be some truth to this ... observability of the pandemic is very highly non-uniform -- even assuming the input measurements can be somehow no

I think there might be some truth to this ... observability of the pandemic is very highly non-uniform -- even assuming the input measurements can be somehow normalized in a semi-trustable way (probably not true in general), non-uniform population distribution + exponential makes for much much more noisy measurement than I think is regularly acknowledged. I feel like there's a kind of built in bias against fully appreciating the effects of the unknowns given the nature of the crisis -- because being the guy who says 'well actually we might not _know_ that' in every policy discussion about the pandemic doesn't actually contribute much benefit ...