This post makes the same point at greater length and considers counterarguments: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2021/01/first-doses-first-sho

This post makes the same point at greater length and considers counterarguments: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2021/01/first-doses-first-show-your-work.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2021/01/fi... What's the expectation in lives/disability of one course vs. the other? That's the first-order question. Added: https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/m20-8137 https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/m20-8137 > We find that under most plausible scenarios, a more balanced approach that withholds fewer doses during early distribution in order to vaccinate more people as soon as possible could substantially increase the benefits of vaccines, while enabling most recipients to receive second doses on schedule. I've only read the abstract, but this is an example of the kind of analysis you want to see behind a decision, as opposed to "we cannot conclude anything definitive" which is true but a deflection from actual decision-making.