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Regardless of politics, I think places like LA need to institute a full lockdown. No one leaves their house except to go to the grocery store and pharmacy. No o

Regardless of politics, I think places like LA need to institute a full lockdown. No one leaves their house except to go to the grocery store and pharmacy. No one leaves more than 2 miles away from their residence. It should be enforced by the military. Essentially martial law. It’s not something I suggest lightly. But 6-8 weeks of complete lockdown and pay people to stay home. It’s the only way that California is going to survive this. Yes, I know that the death rate is low, ~0.2%. But when hospitals are full like this we need to have a circuit breaker and the only thing we have is a full, military-enforced lockdown. We should also stop all traffic on the highways. Set up tanks on the I-5 and 101 and turn people back. We have to stop this uncontrolled catastrophe.

burnthrow 6y ago
> It’s not something I suggest lightly. Anonymous HN comments lack a certain gravitas.
highmastdon 6y ago
There’s enough evidence for medication and preventive supplements (Ivermectin, Vitamin D) that lockdowns aren’t necessary anymore. Other treatments have looked promising when applied early in the disease instead of after hospitalisation. According to combined research (c19study.com) over 800,000 lives could’ve been saved when treated earlier
- adrianN 6y ago
  If there were such evidence I doubt that so many countries would fuck over their economy with lockdowns, so I have strong doubts about your claim.
  - highmastdon 6y ago
    Turkey has been treating people with HCQ from May onwards, despite outcomes of the now-retracted(!) study once published in The Lancet, and they have a very low death rate. 256/1M Population. (See: https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-turkey-lancet-study-who-trial https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/hydroxychloroquine-corona...) Their death rate has been on a steady 1% throughout the pandemic where for example Germany is on about 3%. Of course this needs to be corrected for age etc etc.
    - adrianN 6y ago
      It also needs to be corrected for test strategy.
    - saberdancer 6y ago
      The median age in Turkey is 31.5 years. The median age in Germany is 45.7 years.
- geewee 6y ago
  You realize this is crazy-talk right? No country has avoided a pretty wild amount of casualties without locking down. If the evidence was so strong, you'd think at least one of them would have succeeded with this strategy.
- remote_phone 6y ago
  There’s nothing except lockdowns that will stop what is happening in LA right now. It will be quick and effective and we really don’t have any other tool. We still don’t have a prophylaxis or treatment. People are going to die that shouldn’t be dying and I’m not just talking about COVID patients. When hospitals are full, people die. Ivermectin is not a supplement. It’s an expensive anti-scabies drug. I’ve read it’s supposedly somewhat effective but I haven’t seen anyone implement it in treatment yet at least in the US. I’m familiar with the IMASK+ protocol. I believe they are using that in Peru but it doesn’t appear to have been making any changes in the death rate.
- CyanLite4 6y ago
  The vaccine is more effective. But we have 35 million doses stuck in warehouses around the U.S. because we don’t have a credible distribution plan. No way we’d be able to mass distribute vitamins to the general population. Not to mention the reluctance due to anti-vaxx social media memes.
dawnerd 6y ago
I know you’re being downvoted by the open everything up crowd but I agree. People have proven they can’t follow the guidelines multiple times, there’s been plenty of chances. Quite frankly it’s an embarrassment. I can only imagine how bad it would be if they acted like Florida and allowed the theme parks to open. But yeah, once hospitals are full the national guard really needs to step in and take over.
throwaway4good 6y ago
I don't know what the US thinks of what is going on in the UK or France? Here severe lockdown and rationing of health care services have been in place for months. Do you think it is all politics? Because we like communism? Or rather it is because we don't have a choice.
Der_Einzige 6y ago
I was waiting for a military style quarantine earlier on. I still think it should have happened - though it may not be effective since china lied about the numbers BIG TIME and they're cited as the big success story here https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-55481397 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-55481397
- triceratops 6y ago
  > china lied about the numbers BIG TIME I'm sure they lied, but by how much could they have realistically lied? Their death numbers could 10x higher than reported and they'd still be 4x better than the US per-capita. Could they cover up 10x the bodies that have been reported? I'm highly skeptical.
  - Der_Einzige 6y ago
    China's lockdowns sure helped, but if this BBC article and study it cites (from china's own CDC) is correct, than we have to reckon with the fact that hardcore militarized quarantines still don't solve this problem the way that we would like...
saberdancer 6y ago
CFR is 0.5%-1%.
- multjoy 6y ago
  with treatment.
- polytely 6y ago
  While that is true it doesn't take into account what happens once hospitals reach capacity. Once all doctors are busy and beds are full the fatality rate of strokes, heart attacks, car accidents, cancer goes way up which is something that has to be avoided.
  - saberdancer 6y ago
    Yes, I agree. I was pointing out that death rate is higher than 0.2% that parent mentioned. CFR of 0.5% to 1% with treatment for a (likely) seasonal virus is extremely high.
tomjen3 6y ago
The only solution is to vacinate at much, much higher rates than they are doing now. I don't know what is holding it up, but I imagine that setting an agressive deadline, say 2 weeks, for everybody to be offered a vaccine will get things moving, so long as the penalty is sufficiently harsh. Maybe holding politicians individually responsible for each dead as manslaughter? Basically I am tired of politicans doing jack shit and expect the rest of us to dance to their tunes.
- SAI_Peregrinus 6y ago
  Production capacity. The equipment to make the effective vaccines in high enough quantity simply doesn't exist yet. The easier to produce vaccines are either less effective (AstraZeneca) or haven't finished demonstrating how effective they are (Johnson & Johnson, CanSino, Gamelya, Sinovac, SinoPharm, and Novavax are still in trials). The risk with a less effective vaccine is that the virus could evolve resistance to whatever particular antibody types the vaccine tends to cause the body to produce, since there would be more vaccinated people who could get infected. Then we'd be back to square 1, trying to develop a new vaccine for the new variant. We REALLY want to avoid that.

burnthrow 6y ago

> It’s not something I suggest lightly. Anonymous HN comments lack a certain gravitas.

highmastdon 6y ago

There’s enough evidence for medication and preventive supplements (Ivermectin, Vitamin D) that lockdowns aren’t necessary anymore. Other treatments have looked promising when applied early in the disease instead of after hospitalisation. According to combined research (c19study.com) over 800,000 lives could’ve been saved when treated earlier

adrianN 6y ago
If there were such evidence I doubt that so many countries would fuck over their economy with lockdowns, so I have strong doubts about your claim.
- highmastdon 6y ago
  Turkey has been treating people with HCQ from May onwards, despite outcomes of the now-retracted(!) study once published in The Lancet, and they have a very low death rate. 256/1M Population. (See: https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-turkey-lancet-study-who-trial https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/hydroxychloroquine-corona...) Their death rate has been on a steady 1% throughout the pandemic where for example Germany is on about 3%. Of course this needs to be corrected for age etc etc.
  - adrianN 6y ago
    It also needs to be corrected for test strategy.
  - saberdancer 6y ago
    The median age in Turkey is 31.5 years. The median age in Germany is 45.7 years.
geewee 6y ago
You realize this is crazy-talk right? No country has avoided a pretty wild amount of casualties without locking down. If the evidence was so strong, you'd think at least one of them would have succeeded with this strategy.
remote_phone 6y ago
There’s nothing except lockdowns that will stop what is happening in LA right now. It will be quick and effective and we really don’t have any other tool. We still don’t have a prophylaxis or treatment. People are going to die that shouldn’t be dying and I’m not just talking about COVID patients. When hospitals are full, people die. Ivermectin is not a supplement. It’s an expensive anti-scabies drug. I’ve read it’s supposedly somewhat effective but I haven’t seen anyone implement it in treatment yet at least in the US. I’m familiar with the IMASK+ protocol. I believe they are using that in Peru but it doesn’t appear to have been making any changes in the death rate.
CyanLite4 6y ago
The vaccine is more effective. But we have 35 million doses stuck in warehouses around the U.S. because we don’t have a credible distribution plan. No way we’d be able to mass distribute vitamins to the general population. Not to mention the reluctance due to anti-vaxx social media memes.

dawnerd 6y ago

I know you’re being downvoted by the open everything up crowd but I agree. People have proven they can’t follow the guidelines multiple times, there’s been plenty of chances. Quite frankly it’s an embarrassment. I can only imagine how bad it would be if they acted like Florida and allowed the theme parks to open. But yeah, once hospitals are full the national guard really needs to step in and take over.

throwaway4good 6y ago

I don't know what the US thinks of what is going on in the UK or France? Here severe lockdown and rationing of health care services have been in place for months. Do you think it is all politics? Because we like communism? Or rather it is because we don't have a choice.

Der_Einzige 6y ago

I was waiting for a military style quarantine earlier on. I still think it should have happened - though it may not be effective since china lied about the numbers BIG TIME and they're cited as the big success story here https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-55481397 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-55481397

triceratops 6y ago
> china lied about the numbers BIG TIME I'm sure they lied, but by how much could they have realistically lied? Their death numbers could 10x higher than reported and they'd still be 4x better than the US per-capita. Could they cover up 10x the bodies that have been reported? I'm highly skeptical.
- Der_Einzige 6y ago
  China's lockdowns sure helped, but if this BBC article and study it cites (from china's own CDC) is correct, than we have to reckon with the fact that hardcore militarized quarantines still don't solve this problem the way that we would like...

saberdancer 6y ago

CFR is 0.5%-1%.

multjoy 6y ago
with treatment.
polytely 6y ago
While that is true it doesn't take into account what happens once hospitals reach capacity. Once all doctors are busy and beds are full the fatality rate of strokes, heart attacks, car accidents, cancer goes way up which is something that has to be avoided.
- saberdancer 6y ago
  Yes, I agree. I was pointing out that death rate is higher than 0.2% that parent mentioned. CFR of 0.5% to 1% with treatment for a (likely) seasonal virus is extremely high.

tomjen3 6y ago

The only solution is to vacinate at much, much higher rates than they are doing now. I don't know what is holding it up, but I imagine that setting an agressive deadline, say 2 weeks, for everybody to be offered a vaccine will get things moving, so long as the penalty is sufficiently harsh. Maybe holding politicians individually responsible for each dead as manslaughter? Basically I am tired of politicans doing jack shit and expect the rest of us to dance to their tunes.

SAI_Peregrinus 6y ago
Production capacity. The equipment to make the effective vaccines in high enough quantity simply doesn't exist yet. The easier to produce vaccines are either less effective (AstraZeneca) or haven't finished demonstrating how effective they are (Johnson & Johnson, CanSino, Gamelya, Sinovac, SinoPharm, and Novavax are still in trials). The risk with a less effective vaccine is that the virus could evolve resistance to whatever particular antibody types the vaccine tends to cause the body to produce, since there would be more vaccinated people who could get infected. Then we'd be back to square 1, trying to develop a new vaccine for the new variant. We REALLY want to avoid that.