3 ms·
What I argued was that lockdowns don't work. Depends on which studies you trust. I've read a few, and my conclusion back then was that they do work. However, I
by cygx 6y ago
What I argued was that lockdowns don't work.
Depends on which studies you trust. I've read a few, and my conclusion back then was that they do work. However, I've not kept up with the debate once I came to that conclusion, so maybe I shouldn't have phrased things quite as strongly as I did. If you have a recommendation for a single study that makes a particularly strong case against lockdowns, feel free to link it.
Looking for more recent results just now, I found [1], analyzing the differences in response of US states. It seems to suggests that as a general rule, the stronger the restrictions, the smaller the case growth, which would have been my null hypothesis anyway. Cf. https://i.imgur.com/kLfSs6W.png https://i.imgur.com/kLfSs6W.png
I do agree that we do not yet know the effectiveness of any particular measure. It would be nice if we knew better, but experimenting with extinguishing agents while your house is on fire is too risky for my taste.
[1] https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2020-12/BSG-WP-2020-034-v2_0.pdf https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2020-12/BSG-WP-...