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Hopefully the two vaccines currently being rolled out in the U.S. and Europe will largely eliminate the need for future lockdowns. Once the most vulnerable pop

Hopefully the two vaccines currently being rolled out in the U.S. and Europe will largely eliminate the need for future lockdowns. Once the most vulnerable populations are immune, it's just a matter of weeks or months before herd immunity among the general population is achieved and life can pretty much go back to normal.

pageandrew 6y ago
Your optimism is appreciated but the situation seems so bleak I cannot believe it could be that easy
- 0xffff2 6y ago
  Why not? Provided the vaccines work (hard to doubt at this point) and we can manufacture enough of them, what's going to stop us?
f6v 6y ago
Maybe in a year or so... There was another HN discussion on production capabilities, tldr: distribution and production takes a long time. Until then, there’s no way other than lockdown. I doubt contact tracing is going to get better, at least here in the EU.
abridgett 6y ago
Sadly the timescales are looking more like 1-2 _years_. That's before we get to anti-vaxers and there'll be a lot (there will also be plenty of side-effect cases - due to the sheer number of people being vaccinated at once, not because it's not safe!)
djsumdog 6y ago
Even with a vaccine this virus will not go away for at least 10 years. It took 185 years to eradicate SmallPox (mostly from the WHO push of 20 years in the 60s/70s). Vaccine manufactures are claiming 95% efficacy, but that's honestly not a comforting number. It leaves lots of room and since Challenge trials are unethical (they shouldn't be, but they are) we don't know how accurate that number really is. We still haven't eradicated Polio. This virus may be with us for another 100 years honestly. The next generation will grow up with it and likely won't be affected at all by it. Who knows, maybe the common cold Rhino and Coronaviruses killed millions in human pre-history and now they just give us the sniffles.
- 0xffff2 6y ago
  The virus existing is not the same as it being an ongoing global pandemic requiring widespread public health action.

pageandrew 6y ago

Your optimism is appreciated but the situation seems so bleak I cannot believe it could be that easy

0xffff2 6y ago
Why not? Provided the vaccines work (hard to doubt at this point) and we can manufacture enough of them, what's going to stop us?

f6v 6y ago

Maybe in a year or so... There was another HN discussion on production capabilities, tldr: distribution and production takes a long time. Until then, there’s no way other than lockdown. I doubt contact tracing is going to get better, at least here in the EU.

abridgett 6y ago

Sadly the timescales are looking more like 1-2 _years_. That's before we get to anti-vaxers and there'll be a lot (there will also be plenty of side-effect cases - due to the sheer number of people being vaccinated at once, not because it's not safe!)

djsumdog 6y ago

Even with a vaccine this virus will not go away for at least 10 years. It took 185 years to eradicate SmallPox (mostly from the WHO push of 20 years in the 60s/70s). Vaccine manufactures are claiming 95% efficacy, but that's honestly not a comforting number. It leaves lots of room and since Challenge trials are unethical (they shouldn't be, but they are) we don't know how accurate that number really is. We still haven't eradicated Polio. This virus may be with us for another 100 years honestly. The next generation will grow up with it and likely won't be affected at all by it. Who knows, maybe the common cold Rhino and Coronaviruses killed millions in human pre-history and now they just give us the sniffles.

0xffff2 6y ago
The virus existing is not the same as it being an ongoing global pandemic requiring widespread public health action.