> Anything more or less is pure speculation at best There are two lines of evidence. The first is empirical. It It appears that one dose of Moderna _is_ highly

> Anything more or less is pure speculation at best There are two lines of evidence. The first is empirical. It It appears that one dose of Moderna _is_ highly effective, perhaps 85% or more. Note the treatment-control divergence after about fourteen days [1]. The second is theoretical. From our ample medical experience with other vaccines, there is strong prior reason to think that one dose is likely to work well, and that a second shot in the distant future would be even better than a second shot after three or four weeks. Booster shots are given a.) as backup for people who don't seroconvert after one dose b.) to trigger a secondary immune response. In light of a.), we shouldn't be surprised by the 85% number (most people seroconvert; there's no partial immunity, you either seroconvert or you don't). In light of b.), we should be very skeptical of the four week interval, especially since the secondary response takes about two weeks to develop. It's shorter than the interval for every other vaccine. [1] https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/12/fda-releases-data-on-modernas-covid-vaccine-it-looks-good/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/12/fda-releases-data-on... [2] https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/schedules/hcp/imz/child-adolescent.html https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/schedules/hcp/imz/child-adolesc...