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"Bitcoin becomes less volatile over time" No, like gold, the more it is used as a savings asset, the more it gets tied to the real economy, the more it becomes
by BenoitEssiambre 6y ago
"Bitcoin becomes less volatile over time"
No, like gold, the more it is used as a savings asset, the more it gets tied to the real economy, the more it becomes unstable.
When gold had too much ties to the real economy, it became unstable enough to cause the great depression.
This happens because, people, businesses and banks start hording tokens instead of investing in building and maintaining production capacity of consumables and the ratio of value of tokens meant to buy consumables vs actual production of consumables gets out of wack.
When the music stops, people realize that people are sitting on tons of seemingly valuable tokens but stuff to buy with them is getting scarce because capacity is not being maintained, they reverse their trade, prices of stuff go up, volatility ensues, and the destructive cycle resets.
Savings being tied to too popular tokens instead of assets that create real value results in a massive coordination failure, a terrible Nash equilibrium, a prisoner's dilemma where the first to invest in production are disadvantaged so everyone hoards tokens instead. Companies hoarding Bitcoin is the first sign that this might be happening now.
This is what central banks and sound currencies are designed to prevent.
- ionwake 6y agoI believe you are making incorrect extrapolations. Gold did not cause the great depression, people invested in gold after the economy crashed. If people are hoarding Bitcoin, again it will be as a hedge against the inflation that is occurring.
- chucknthem 6y agofascinating take on the economic incentives, do you have any books or studies you can share if I want to learn more about it?
- BenoitEssiambre 6y agoI'm not an economist but David Beckworth's blog, especially posts during and after the global financial crisis is a good starting point: https://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ https://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/