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If there were any greater signal that bitcoin is not a safe bet right now, my dad has started buying it. He keeps saying thinks like "if I'd have put in £100 4

If there were any greater signal that bitcoin is not a safe bet right now, my dad has started buying it. He keeps saying thinks like "if I'd have put in £100 4 years ago". I keep trying to tell him that if he'd tell me tomorrow's lottery numbers we'd be much better off but alas I think he's a lost cause.

hanniabu 6y ago
"If there were any greater signal that gold is not a safe bet right now, my dad has started buying it."
- arcticbull 6y ago
  Is gold a safe bet? Seems pretty speculative to me.
moonbug 6y ago
hoo boy. I hope you aren't counting on an inheritance.
- VBprogrammer 6y ago
  Thankfully he has a guitar collection that means more to me than any amount of money could! (one Les Paul he has owned for over 30 years and some guitars he has built by hand).
WrtCdEvrydy 6y ago
I disagree with most of this thread but this is a common sign that you have missed the boat for entering a market. By the time you see a thread on Bitcoin going up 10% this week, you have failed to secure a position. I've made some decent cash by shifting some money into Bitcoin on a Monday and cashing out my positions by Friday during these rallies to the tune of 30-70% profits but it's not for the faint of heart.
- whimsicalism 6y ago
  > I've made some decent cash by shifting some money into Bitcoin on a Monday and cashing out my positions by Friday during these rallies to the tune of 30-70% profits but it's not for the faint of heart. All of this is gambling, not some rational modeling of how the bitcoin price will move. I'm glad that it has worked out for you.
  - WrtCdEvrydy 6y ago
    Of course it's gambling... just like putting money in Tesla, Zoom or any other stock that made cash during Covid. Bitcoin's price is irrelevant if you're planning on using it as a deflation countering method but if you're looking at pricing, you're basically gambling on you not being the bigger fool.
    - whimsicalism 6y ago
      > Bitcoin's price is irrelevant if you're planning on using it as a deflation countering How does bitcoin function as a "deflation countering method"?
      - WrtCdEvrydy 6y ago
        As long as you can find someone willing to trade something for Bitcoin, your Bitcoins are safe from USD printing. Whether it's a pizza that later on is worth billions, or a car or something else. Your bitcoin is worth something, and is just another method of payment.
        whimsicalism 6y ago
        > your Bitcoins are safe from USD printing. Wouldn't that make it a hedge against inflation? Many people in this thread on the wrong side of the Dunning-Kruger curve.
        WrtCdEvrydy 6y ago
hinkley 6y ago
I personally found it more convincing to think of what I would have done the first time the asset doubled. There is no way I'd 'let it ride'. At some point you rebalance your portfolio and you 'miss out' on some of the upside by hedging your bets against an isolated downside. I bought my first AAPL stock at ~$40 a share the first time, which I believe was about a year before their previous stock split. If I'd held it continuously I'd have 8x as many shares and a basis of $5 a share, which would mean I'd have 25x as much money as I started with. But my portfolio would be unbalanced as hell, and I would have missed out on a lot of run-ups for WWDC and such. So I sold some, did profit taking on the rest, and occasionally bought back in, not always at the best times. So instead I have about 5x as many shares, and my basis is more like $45 a share, but now with some dividends on top, which is nice. If anything, my portfolio still has too much AAPL in it (I sold about 10% a few weeks ago)

hanniabu 6y ago

"If there were any greater signal that gold is not a safe bet right now, my dad has started buying it."

arcticbull 6y ago
Is gold a safe bet? Seems pretty speculative to me.

moonbug 6y ago

hoo boy. I hope you aren't counting on an inheritance.

VBprogrammer 6y ago
Thankfully he has a guitar collection that means more to me than any amount of money could! (one Les Paul he has owned for over 30 years and some guitars he has built by hand).

WrtCdEvrydy 6y ago

I disagree with most of this thread but this is a common sign that you have missed the boat for entering a market. By the time you see a thread on Bitcoin going up 10% this week, you have failed to secure a position. I've made some decent cash by shifting some money into Bitcoin on a Monday and cashing out my positions by Friday during these rallies to the tune of 30-70% profits but it's not for the faint of heart.

whimsicalism 6y ago
> I've made some decent cash by shifting some money into Bitcoin on a Monday and cashing out my positions by Friday during these rallies to the tune of 30-70% profits but it's not for the faint of heart. All of this is gambling, not some rational modeling of how the bitcoin price will move. I'm glad that it has worked out for you.
- WrtCdEvrydy 6y ago
  Of course it's gambling... just like putting money in Tesla, Zoom or any other stock that made cash during Covid. Bitcoin's price is irrelevant if you're planning on using it as a deflation countering method but if you're looking at pricing, you're basically gambling on you not being the bigger fool.
  - whimsicalism 6y ago
    > Bitcoin's price is irrelevant if you're planning on using it as a deflation countering How does bitcoin function as a "deflation countering method"?
    - WrtCdEvrydy 6y ago
      As long as you can find someone willing to trade something for Bitcoin, your Bitcoins are safe from USD printing. Whether it's a pizza that later on is worth billions, or a car or something else. Your bitcoin is worth something, and is just another method of payment.
      - whimsicalism 6y ago
        > your Bitcoins are safe from USD printing. Wouldn't that make it a hedge against inflation? Many people in this thread on the wrong side of the Dunning-Kruger curve.
        WrtCdEvrydy 6y ago

hinkley 6y ago

I personally found it more convincing to think of what I would have done the first time the asset doubled. There is no way I'd 'let it ride'. At some point you rebalance your portfolio and you 'miss out' on some of the upside by hedging your bets against an isolated downside. I bought my first AAPL stock at ~$40 a share the first time, which I believe was about a year before their previous stock split. If I'd held it continuously I'd have 8x as many shares and a basis of $5 a share, which would mean I'd have 25x as much money as I started with. But my portfolio would be unbalanced as hell, and I would have missed out on a lot of run-ups for WWDC and such. So I sold some, did profit taking on the rest, and occasionally bought back in, not always at the best times. So instead I have about 5x as many shares, and my basis is more like $45 a share, but now with some dividends on top, which is nice. If anything, my portfolio still has too much AAPL in it (I sold about 10% a few weeks ago)