4 ms·

Show me the evidence. You look from nation to nation, region to region, and there is no effect at all from masks or lockdowns. You are imagining they work becau

Show me the evidence. You look from nation to nation, region to region, and there is no effect at all from masks or lockdowns. You are imagining they work because the TV tells you to, but they don't.

oblio 6y ago
Every time they impose a stricter lockdown where I am, numbers go down. They relax it, they go up. It's a roller coaster of disease. What have you got against lockdowns? Is it some philosophical hatred? You're not alone, governments also hate them. They do it because they have to.
- djsumdog 6y ago
  The actual numbers are totally opposite of what you say. Please show some sources. I think Shapiro covers the arguments against lockdowns very well: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymD9ipSm-eg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymD9ipSm-eg I'm against them because they literally do not work, and they violate our basic civil rights. A man in Canada was shot months ago for not wearing a mask, after he left the store, outside his own home. In Quebec over New Years Eve, police arrested someone for having more than five people in their homes. New York wants to pass ordinances that lets them put people in camps if they're infected. This is absolute insanity. The virus is an excuse to violate all our basic human rights. The United States constitution is basically suspended at this point. Look at this woman who was arrested for trying to save her deteriorating mother locked in a care home: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1E390UHzTY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1E390UHzTY
  - oblio 6y ago
    There you go, see the links and abstracts below. But you're emotional, I doubt these sources will change your mind. Have a nice day! https://www.benjaminborn.de/publication/bdm_lockdown_2020/ https://www.benjaminborn.de/publication/bdm_lockdown_2020/ > While most countries imposed a lockdown in response to COVID-19, Sweden did not. To quantify the lockdown effect, we approximate a counterfactual lockdown scenario for Sweden through the outcome in a synthetic control unit. We find, first, that a 9-week lockdown in the first half of 2020 would have reduced infections and deaths by about 75% and 50%, respectively. Second, the lockdown effect starts to materialize with a delay of 3-4 weeks only. Third, the actual adjustment of mobility patterns in Sweden suggests there has been substantial voluntary social restraint, although the adjustment was less strong than under the lockdown scenario. Lastly, we find that a lockdown would not have caused much additional output loss. https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(20)32034-1/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(20)32034-1/full... > Lockdown therefore appears to have been successful not only in alleviating the burden on the intensive care units of the two most severely affected regions of France, but also in preventing uncontrolled epidemics in other regions. These simple observations support results from other studies which have estimated the impact of lockdown on SARS-CoV-2 spread to be strong. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2049080120301485 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S204908012... > COVID-19's daily increasing cases and deaths have led to worldwide lockdown, quarantine and some restrictions. This study aims to analyze the effect of lockdown days on the spread of coronavirus in countries. COVID-19 cases and lockdown days data were collected for 49 countries that implemented the lockdown between certain dates (without interruption). The correlation tests were used for data analysis based on unconstrained (normal) and constrained (Tukey-lambda). The lockdown days was significantly correlated with COVID-19 pandemic based on unconstrained (r = −0.9126, F-ratio = 6.1654; t-ratio = 2.40; prob > .0203 with 49 observations) and based on Tukey-lambda (r = 0.7402, λ = 0.14). The lockdown, one of the social isolation restrictions, has been observed to prevent the COVID-19 pandemic, and showed that the spread of the virus can be significantly reduced by this preventive restriction in this study. This study offers initial evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic can be suppressed by a lockdown. The application of lockdown by governments is also thought to be effective on psychology, environment and economy besides having impact on Covid-19.
    - djsumdog 6y ago
      > https://www.benjaminborn.de/publication/bdm_lockdown_2020/ https://www.benjaminborn.de/publication/bdm_lockdown_2020/ Literally a pre-print. There's only an abstract. I don't see the actual one on Sci-Hub or anywhere. I can read it. > https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820%2932034-1 https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820... The full text of the 2nd paper is literally only two pages and only appears to look at regions in France and not other countries. There are literally no graphs, no detailed explanation of the methodology and the very next article is literally "Is COVID-19 being used as a weapon against Indigenous Peoples in Brazil?" which speaks of this very weird identity politics finding its way into major academic journals. There are references to an Appendix that I can't seem to find the full-text of, but it bothers me the paper itself doesn't seem to have a detail methodology section, risk analysis and also lists some pretty big financial incentives/interests. The 3rd study is the only really detailed source provided, yet it only covers data up to May 5th. It also has this interesting quote: > In addition, it is claimed that, besides the positive aspects of the lockdown, people who comply with this restriction cause a weakened immune system. The main reason for this is that there is too much food consumption and limited mobility. The effect of the lockdown caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on human health may be the subject of future work It also tries to look at environmental impacts and mentions the inconsistency of lock-downs across all areas. I'm also having a hard time understand the "Transformed data" as it doesn't seem to correlate to either of the two preceding graphs at all. Also keep in mind, correlational near r=1 shows that Ice Cream sales can lead to Polio: https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia.springernature.com%2Foriginal%2Fspringer-static%2Fimage%2Fchp%3A10.1007%252F978-3-319-93224-8_15%2FMediaObjects%2F430194_1_En_15_Fig4_HTML.png&f=1&nofb=1 https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2F... That combined with the limited window and inconsistent lock-downs should at least throw question on this study.
      - oblio 6y ago
        I want your sources.
        djsumdog 6y ago
danhor 6y ago
Here is the first result from google scholar: https://academic.oup.com/jtm/article/27/3/taaa037/5808003?login=true https://academic.oup.com/jtm/article/27/3/taaa037/5808003?lo.... Seems pretty effective to me
- djsumdog 6y ago
  > The positive impact of lockdown in Wuhan on containing the COVID-19 outbreak in China Wuhan, where they literally welded people in their homes?! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=meRUCxlleUc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=meRUCxlleUc Are you seriously advocating for elimination this virus by eliminating people's basic human rights?!
  - IgorPartola 6y ago
    What tells you that what you are seeing there is them welding people inside their apartment buildings? I see someone welding something. I don't see how you can tell who they are or what they are doing or why based on this video.
    - djsumdog 6y ago
      Um, the part where the guy opens the door and sees a bar welded in front of it?! There are Chineese sources that show bars being put up against peoples' doors: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QfzQ8Dag8V8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QfzQ8Dag8V8 There are tons of these videos by the way: https://www.msn.com/en-ae/news/other/is-china-locking-up-entire-residential-buildings-with-people-inside-to-stop-the-coronavirus/ar-BBZOrXP https://www.msn.com/en-ae/news/other/is-china-locking-up-ent... But they are difficult to confirm because China heavily restricts all coms in and out of the country, or are you going to try to deny the Great Firewall of China or extreme media censorship exists next? Here's an opinion piece from the WaPo by a Chinese citizen also stating people were welded into their homes: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/02/06/warning-chinese-authoritarianism-is-hazardous-your-health/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/02/06/warning-c... and here are a list of Chinese sources as well: https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/a/46045/15222 https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/a/46045/15222

Show me the evidence. You look from nation to nation, region to region, and there is no effect at all from masks or lockdowns. You are imagining they work because the TV tells you to, but they don't.

oblio 6y ago

Every time they impose a stricter lockdown where I am, numbers go down. They relax it, they go up. It's a roller coaster of disease. What have you got against lockdowns? Is it some philosophical hatred? You're not alone, governments also hate them. They do it because they have to.

djsumdog 6y ago
The actual numbers are totally opposite of what you say. Please show some sources. I think Shapiro covers the arguments against lockdowns very well: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymD9ipSm-eg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymD9ipSm-eg I'm against them because they literally do not work, and they violate our basic civil rights. A man in Canada was shot months ago for not wearing a mask, after he left the store, outside his own home. In Quebec over New Years Eve, police arrested someone for having more than five people in their homes. New York wants to pass ordinances that lets them put people in camps if they're infected. This is absolute insanity. The virus is an excuse to violate all our basic human rights. The United States constitution is basically suspended at this point. Look at this woman who was arrested for trying to save her deteriorating mother locked in a care home: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1E390UHzTY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1E390UHzTY
- oblio 6y ago
  There you go, see the links and abstracts below. But you're emotional, I doubt these sources will change your mind. Have a nice day! https://www.benjaminborn.de/publication/bdm_lockdown_2020/ https://www.benjaminborn.de/publication/bdm_lockdown_2020/ > While most countries imposed a lockdown in response to COVID-19, Sweden did not. To quantify the lockdown effect, we approximate a counterfactual lockdown scenario for Sweden through the outcome in a synthetic control unit. We find, first, that a 9-week lockdown in the first half of 2020 would have reduced infections and deaths by about 75% and 50%, respectively. Second, the lockdown effect starts to materialize with a delay of 3-4 weeks only. Third, the actual adjustment of mobility patterns in Sweden suggests there has been substantial voluntary social restraint, although the adjustment was less strong than under the lockdown scenario. Lastly, we find that a lockdown would not have caused much additional output loss. https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(20)32034-1/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(20)32034-1/full... > Lockdown therefore appears to have been successful not only in alleviating the burden on the intensive care units of the two most severely affected regions of France, but also in preventing uncontrolled epidemics in other regions. These simple observations support results from other studies which have estimated the impact of lockdown on SARS-CoV-2 spread to be strong. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2049080120301485 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S204908012... > COVID-19's daily increasing cases and deaths have led to worldwide lockdown, quarantine and some restrictions. This study aims to analyze the effect of lockdown days on the spread of coronavirus in countries. COVID-19 cases and lockdown days data were collected for 49 countries that implemented the lockdown between certain dates (without interruption). The correlation tests were used for data analysis based on unconstrained (normal) and constrained (Tukey-lambda). The lockdown days was significantly correlated with COVID-19 pandemic based on unconstrained (r = −0.9126, F-ratio = 6.1654; t-ratio = 2.40; prob > .0203 with 49 observations) and based on Tukey-lambda (r = 0.7402, λ = 0.14). The lockdown, one of the social isolation restrictions, has been observed to prevent the COVID-19 pandemic, and showed that the spread of the virus can be significantly reduced by this preventive restriction in this study. This study offers initial evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic can be suppressed by a lockdown. The application of lockdown by governments is also thought to be effective on psychology, environment and economy besides having impact on Covid-19.
  - djsumdog 6y ago
    > https://www.benjaminborn.de/publication/bdm_lockdown_2020/ https://www.benjaminborn.de/publication/bdm_lockdown_2020/ Literally a pre-print. There's only an abstract. I don't see the actual one on Sci-Hub or anywhere. I can read it. > https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820%2932034-1 https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820... The full text of the 2nd paper is literally only two pages and only appears to look at regions in France and not other countries. There are literally no graphs, no detailed explanation of the methodology and the very next article is literally "Is COVID-19 being used as a weapon against Indigenous Peoples in Brazil?" which speaks of this very weird identity politics finding its way into major academic journals. There are references to an Appendix that I can't seem to find the full-text of, but it bothers me the paper itself doesn't seem to have a detail methodology section, risk analysis and also lists some pretty big financial incentives/interests. The 3rd study is the only really detailed source provided, yet it only covers data up to May 5th. It also has this interesting quote: > In addition, it is claimed that, besides the positive aspects of the lockdown, people who comply with this restriction cause a weakened immune system. The main reason for this is that there is too much food consumption and limited mobility. The effect of the lockdown caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on human health may be the subject of future work It also tries to look at environmental impacts and mentions the inconsistency of lock-downs across all areas. I'm also having a hard time understand the "Transformed data" as it doesn't seem to correlate to either of the two preceding graphs at all. Also keep in mind, correlational near r=1 shows that Ice Cream sales can lead to Polio: https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia.springernature.com%2Foriginal%2Fspringer-static%2Fimage%2Fchp%3A10.1007%252F978-3-319-93224-8_15%2FMediaObjects%2F430194_1_En_15_Fig4_HTML.png&f=1&nofb=1 https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2F... That combined with the limited window and inconsistent lock-downs should at least throw question on this study.
    - oblio 6y ago
      I want your sources.
      - djsumdog 6y ago

danhor 6y ago

Here is the first result from google scholar: https://academic.oup.com/jtm/article/27/3/taaa037/5808003?login=true https://academic.oup.com/jtm/article/27/3/taaa037/5808003?lo.... Seems pretty effective to me

djsumdog 6y ago
> The positive impact of lockdown in Wuhan on containing the COVID-19 outbreak in China Wuhan, where they literally welded people in their homes?! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=meRUCxlleUc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=meRUCxlleUc Are you seriously advocating for elimination this virus by eliminating people's basic human rights?!
- IgorPartola 6y ago
  What tells you that what you are seeing there is them welding people inside their apartment buildings? I see someone welding something. I don't see how you can tell who they are or what they are doing or why based on this video.
  - djsumdog 6y ago
    Um, the part where the guy opens the door and sees a bar welded in front of it?! There are Chineese sources that show bars being put up against peoples' doors: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QfzQ8Dag8V8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QfzQ8Dag8V8 There are tons of these videos by the way: https://www.msn.com/en-ae/news/other/is-china-locking-up-entire-residential-buildings-with-people-inside-to-stop-the-coronavirus/ar-BBZOrXP https://www.msn.com/en-ae/news/other/is-china-locking-up-ent... But they are difficult to confirm because China heavily restricts all coms in and out of the country, or are you going to try to deny the Great Firewall of China or extreme media censorship exists next? Here's an opinion piece from the WaPo by a Chinese citizen also stating people were welded into their homes: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/02/06/warning-chinese-authoritarianism-is-hazardous-your-health/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/02/06/warning-c... and here are a list of Chinese sources as well: https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/a/46045/15222 https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/a/46045/15222