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That's a lot; yet it's still nowhere near enough. We've got ~over 9~ around 8 billion who need vaccinations. EDIT: Even with 5+ different vaccines hitting 600M

That's a lot; yet it's still nowhere near enough. We've got ~over 9~ around 8 billion who need vaccinations. EDIT: Even with 5+ different vaccines hitting 600M (some of which require multiple doses per person), we're still talking years to achieve herd immunity. Years of continuing our current conditions.

glouwbug 6y ago
You mean 8 billion?
- londons_explore 6y ago
  2 doses per person... No need for 100% vaccination (some will die before being vaccinated, some immunity from already being infected, some too poor to buy it, etc.)
  - falcolas 6y ago
    > some will die before being vaccinated And their replacements (plus a few) will be born, also requiring a vaccination until we hit herd immunity.
    - standardUser 6y ago
      To be clear, none of these vaccines are approved for young children (though it helps that they are poor vectors and super low-risk).
      - falcolas 6y ago
        It doesn't have to be newborns who replace the dead from the vaccination pool - it can be children outside of the age range growing into the vaccination range.
standardUser 6y ago
It's one of 5 vaccines currently in use, with at least a couple more expected to be approved in various countries this and next month. So it does not need to be enough.
- falcolas 6y ago
  Even if all 5 produce 600M doses a year, it'll still take years. Some of those also require two doses per person.
  - standardUser 6y ago
    India alone plans to produce 1 billion doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine this calendar year, with 50 million already produced. These vaccines were just approved in a few countries and production is just starting to ramp up. Not a great time to be making projections. Give it a month.
oblio 6y ago
Yeah, but they don't all need it at the same time. Plus there are multiple companies producing vaccines. There's Moderna, Pfizer/Biontech, Astra Zeneca/Oxford, the Russian one, the Chinese one.
- falcolas 6y ago
  > they don't all need it at the same time We're talking about years, even if all of the existing vaccines can hit the same or similar production quotas. Compounded by individuals requiring multiple doses of some of the vaccines. Years is a long time to wait for herd immunity.
amanaplanacanal 6y ago
Not sure I understand you. If most of the US is vaccinated, do you think the US will have to continue lockdown simply because most of Africa hasn’t yet gotten the vaccine? Substitute whatever country you are worried about. I fully suspect that once the older folks and health care get vaccinated, at some point ICUs will start clearing out and lockdowns will start coming off.
- falcolas 6y ago
  > If most of the US is vaccinated These vaccines aren't all going to the US (or at least, not that I've heard about). I've been hearing 600,000 vaccinations (granted, this is from politicians, so ready your salt) this year in the US. > ICUs will start clearing out and lockdowns will start coming off In which case they'll fill right back up (as is being aptly demonstrated in the US right now). It's not just the elderly who are filling those beds - slightly over half of the hospitalizations are under 65, pretty consistently throughout the pandemic.
  - wang_li 6y ago
    > I've been hearing 600,000 vaccinations (granted, this is from politicians, so ready your salt) this year in the US. I don't know where you're hearing that, but the US is already doing more than 300,000 vaccinations per day (302,000 on 1/1 and 325,000 on 1/2.) If we maintain that rate we'll have 100% vaccination before the end of the year. Of course not everyone will take the vaccine, but "600,000 vaccinations this year" is wrong.

glouwbug 6y ago

You mean 8 billion?

londons_explore 6y ago
2 doses per person... No need for 100% vaccination (some will die before being vaccinated, some immunity from already being infected, some too poor to buy it, etc.)
- falcolas 6y ago
  > some will die before being vaccinated And their replacements (plus a few) will be born, also requiring a vaccination until we hit herd immunity.
  - standardUser 6y ago
    To be clear, none of these vaccines are approved for young children (though it helps that they are poor vectors and super low-risk).
    - falcolas 6y ago
      It doesn't have to be newborns who replace the dead from the vaccination pool - it can be children outside of the age range growing into the vaccination range.

standardUser 6y ago

It's one of 5 vaccines currently in use, with at least a couple more expected to be approved in various countries this and next month. So it does not need to be enough.

falcolas 6y ago
Even if all 5 produce 600M doses a year, it'll still take years. Some of those also require two doses per person.
- standardUser 6y ago
  India alone plans to produce 1 billion doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine this calendar year, with 50 million already produced. These vaccines were just approved in a few countries and production is just starting to ramp up. Not a great time to be making projections. Give it a month.

oblio 6y ago

Yeah, but they don't all need it at the same time. Plus there are multiple companies producing vaccines. There's Moderna, Pfizer/Biontech, Astra Zeneca/Oxford, the Russian one, the Chinese one.

falcolas 6y ago
> they don't all need it at the same time We're talking about years, even if all of the existing vaccines can hit the same or similar production quotas. Compounded by individuals requiring multiple doses of some of the vaccines. Years is a long time to wait for herd immunity.

amanaplanacanal 6y ago

Not sure I understand you. If most of the US is vaccinated, do you think the US will have to continue lockdown simply because most of Africa hasn’t yet gotten the vaccine? Substitute whatever country you are worried about. I fully suspect that once the older folks and health care get vaccinated, at some point ICUs will start clearing out and lockdowns will start coming off.

falcolas 6y ago
> If most of the US is vaccinated These vaccines aren't all going to the US (or at least, not that I've heard about). I've been hearing 600,000 vaccinations (granted, this is from politicians, so ready your salt) this year in the US. > ICUs will start clearing out and lockdowns will start coming off In which case they'll fill right back up (as is being aptly demonstrated in the US right now). It's not just the elderly who are filling those beds - slightly over half of the hospitalizations are under 65, pretty consistently throughout the pandemic.
- wang_li 6y ago
  > I've been hearing 600,000 vaccinations (granted, this is from politicians, so ready your salt) this year in the US. I don't know where you're hearing that, but the US is already doing more than 300,000 vaccinations per day (302,000 on 1/1 and 325,000 on 1/2.) If we maintain that rate we'll have 100% vaccination before the end of the year. Of course not everyone will take the vaccine, but "600,000 vaccinations this year" is wrong.