32 ms·

It’s a zero or one game for China —- they can make 10000 right decisions but the system could collapse with one, just one wrong decision. It’s not fault toleran

It’s a zero or one game for China —- they can make 10000 right decisions but the system could collapse with one, just one wrong decision. It’s not fault tolerant as the democracy system

squiggleblaz 6y ago
Which single wrong decision is going to collapse China? Their administration have made wrong decisions before — unless you subscribe to some outlandish conspiracy theory. It seems far more likely that if they collapse, it will be as a consequence of a series of wrong decisions, in a completely boring way. The straw that breaks the camel's back will be the same as all the straws before it, except that everyone will analyse it to death considering the camel could hold thousands of other very similar straws, just not this one.
- whoevercares 6y ago
  What I meant is high level strategic decisions. Example like cultural revolution. It’s really a single decision from one dictator and get carried out super efficiently. If you are Chinese, you’ll probably understand what I meant how single decisions could collapse China without even my explanation. China is strange, critical policies like cultural revolution and Deng’s decision to open the country was really very short and succinct words on paper
- AnimalMuppet 6y ago
  What single wrong decision? Invading Taiwan (depending on the US response). That could collapse a lot more than China...
- adamc 6y ago
  Any military decision that could trigger nuclear war has that potential.
- fomine3 6y ago
  Like this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward
loceng 6y ago
I was thinking that going after Ma so publicly could be one such decision, however what news is the CCP allowing regular citizens to see - what propaganda they're promoting to demonize Ma, etc. makes me realize it's probably a non-issue; even other billionaires in China may not be much wiser.
Bakary 6y ago
The advantage China has is that they can plan over the long term without worrying about short term concerns. This means that they are in a better position to avoid the slide into wrong decisions that compound over time, though by no means immune to it.
- medium_burrito 6y ago
  If they are so good at long term planning, then why is so much stuff they do shortsighted? IE... Building the 3 Gorges dam out of various types of concrete, and not letting it cure properly, etc. Every possible corner was cut, repeatedly. This is a project that not only supplies power- it is supposed to control floods, and they more or less agreed that it won't work for that. The damage to the dam this year must have been immense, and as the climate changes we can expect more of the same kind of rainfall and flooding. In no possible universe is a major dam collapse flooding Wuhan under 2m of water and washing away Pudong an example of "short term concerns". Building empty cities, despite having a population that will decline very soon, and low quality construction that degrades relatively quickly. Ok, short-term consequence is the real estate bubble keeps on going, but if you are worried about the long term, probably better to nip that in the bud. And don't even get me started on the Belt and Road initiative, which is an expensive jobs program that has hurt China's image abroad.

It’s a zero or one game for China —- they can make 10000 right decisions but the system could collapse with one, just one wrong decision. It’s not fault tolerant as the democracy system

squiggleblaz 6y ago

Which single wrong decision is going to collapse China? Their administration have made wrong decisions before — unless you subscribe to some outlandish conspiracy theory. It seems far more likely that if they collapse, it will be as a consequence of a series of wrong decisions, in a completely boring way. The straw that breaks the camel's back will be the same as all the straws before it, except that everyone will analyse it to death considering the camel could hold thousands of other very similar straws, just not this one.

whoevercares 6y ago
What I meant is high level strategic decisions. Example like cultural revolution. It’s really a single decision from one dictator and get carried out super efficiently. If you are Chinese, you’ll probably understand what I meant how single decisions could collapse China without even my explanation. China is strange, critical policies like cultural revolution and Deng’s decision to open the country was really very short and succinct words on paper
AnimalMuppet 6y ago
What single wrong decision? Invading Taiwan (depending on the US response). That could collapse a lot more than China...
adamc 6y ago
Any military decision that could trigger nuclear war has that potential.
fomine3 6y ago
Like this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward

loceng 6y ago

I was thinking that going after Ma so publicly could be one such decision, however what news is the CCP allowing regular citizens to see - what propaganda they're promoting to demonize Ma, etc. makes me realize it's probably a non-issue; even other billionaires in China may not be much wiser.

Bakary 6y ago

The advantage China has is that they can plan over the long term without worrying about short term concerns. This means that they are in a better position to avoid the slide into wrong decisions that compound over time, though by no means immune to it.

medium_burrito 6y ago
If they are so good at long term planning, then why is so much stuff they do shortsighted? IE... Building the 3 Gorges dam out of various types of concrete, and not letting it cure properly, etc. Every possible corner was cut, repeatedly. This is a project that not only supplies power- it is supposed to control floods, and they more or less agreed that it won't work for that. The damage to the dam this year must have been immense, and as the climate changes we can expect more of the same kind of rainfall and flooding. In no possible universe is a major dam collapse flooding Wuhan under 2m of water and washing away Pudong an example of "short term concerns". Building empty cities, despite having a population that will decline very soon, and low quality construction that degrades relatively quickly. Ok, short-term consequence is the real estate bubble keeps on going, but if you are worried about the long term, probably better to nip that in the bud. And don't even get me started on the Belt and Road initiative, which is an expensive jobs program that has hurt China's image abroad.