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It's all very interesting. I'd say the CCP is the most powerful group in the world right now. That they can control billionaires like that is impressive and sca

by bserge 6y ago

It's all very interesting. I'd say the CCP is the most powerful group in the world right now. That they can control billionaires like that is impressive and scary. I have to admit, a one party system does seem like the best type of government, on paper. It can be more efficient and do things much faster than anything else. Billionaires can't just pay politicians to create/modify laws in their favour. And for the average citizen, life's the same as in a democracy. But that only works if the party is working for the country, gives people a decent amount of freedom and listens to their needs. When the party no longer keeps the people content (which seems inevitable, looking at history), there's practically no way to change it besides a violent revolution. That's a huge drawback, and the reason we're better off with a slower democratic system that doesn't have a single point of (catastrophic) failure. Modern China seems to work a lot like Imperial China. Just with different names for the emperor and his officials, more freedom and rights for the population, as well as more means to keep them in check.

whoevercares 6y ago
It’s a zero or one game for China —- they can make 10000 right decisions but the system could collapse with one, just one wrong decision. It’s not fault tolerant as the democracy system
- squiggleblaz 6y ago
  Which single wrong decision is going to collapse China? Their administration have made wrong decisions before — unless you subscribe to some outlandish conspiracy theory. It seems far more likely that if they collapse, it will be as a consequence of a series of wrong decisions, in a completely boring way. The straw that breaks the camel's back will be the same as all the straws before it, except that everyone will analyse it to death considering the camel could hold thousands of other very similar straws, just not this one.
  - whoevercares 6y ago
    What I meant is high level strategic decisions. Example like cultural revolution. It’s really a single decision from one dictator and get carried out super efficiently. If you are Chinese, you’ll probably understand what I meant how single decisions could collapse China without even my explanation. China is strange, critical policies like cultural revolution and Deng’s decision to open the country was really very short and succinct words on paper
  - AnimalMuppet 6y ago
    What single wrong decision? Invading Taiwan (depending on the US response). That could collapse a lot more than China...
  - adamc 6y ago
    Any military decision that could trigger nuclear war has that potential.
  - fomine3 6y ago
    Like this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward
- loceng 6y ago
  I was thinking that going after Ma so publicly could be one such decision, however what news is the CCP allowing regular citizens to see - what propaganda they're promoting to demonize Ma, etc. makes me realize it's probably a non-issue; even other billionaires in China may not be much wiser.
- Bakary 6y ago
  The advantage China has is that they can plan over the long term without worrying about short term concerns. This means that they are in a better position to avoid the slide into wrong decisions that compound over time, though by no means immune to it.
  - medium_burrito 6y ago
    If they are so good at long term planning, then why is so much stuff they do shortsighted? IE... Building the 3 Gorges dam out of various types of concrete, and not letting it cure properly, etc. Every possible corner was cut, repeatedly. This is a project that not only supplies power- it is supposed to control floods, and they more or less agreed that it won't work for that. The damage to the dam this year must have been immense, and as the climate changes we can expect more of the same kind of rainfall and flooding. In no possible universe is a major dam collapse flooding Wuhan under 2m of water and washing away Pudong an example of "short term concerns". Building empty cities, despite having a population that will decline very soon, and low quality construction that degrades relatively quickly. Ok, short-term consequence is the real estate bubble keeps on going, but if you are worried about the long term, probably better to nip that in the bud. And don't even get me started on the Belt and Road initiative, which is an expensive jobs program that has hurt China's image abroad.
dougmwne 6y ago
That is the problem with autocracy. If the leadership is good, it is very efficient and effective. Unfortunately based on thousands of years of examples, good leaders are rare. Without checks on power, bad leaders can tear a country down at lightening speed. Democracy is absolutely a messy government and it is frustrating to watch the glacial speed and bickering. It is also a very stable government that checks the worst impulses of the human lust for power. It keeps the power-hungry chasing each other's tails and away from the ship's wheel.
- AnimalMuppet 6y ago
  Good leaders don't even have to be rare. They just have to be not forever. Sooner or later you get a bad one. The more power they have, the worse the damage. The US has had bad presidents. They did damage. But without the checks and balances, they would have done far more.
  - dougmwne 6y ago
    And we got to watch those checks and balances play out this very weekend. Incredible to watch somone who would happily accept a crown be taken as a fool instead. Our system of governments may not be perfect, but it has certainly avoided a major historical event.
    - AnimalMuppet 6y ago
      Yeah. I'm rather pleased with how well the US system held up to Trump. It wasn't perfect, and there has been damage, but overall the checks and balances did their job.
- blippage 6y ago
  Democracy is the worst form of government there is, except for all the others. -- Winston Churchill. I may be factually wrong, but I hear that Singapore is/was somewhat autocratic. However, the government was competent and honest, avoiding things like nepotism and suchlike. The result of all this is that starting from the mid-20th century, it grew from one of the poorest nations on earth to one of the richest. All this as a small island country that even has to import its own water. China is basically a giant kleptocracy. My dad is fond of China, but I am hesitant. China is so corrupt that it's hard for good things to come from it. I guess it is slowly industrialising and getting better, but it seems to be labouring under a heavy burden. I have long been suspicious that the Chinese economy would collapse. My theory is that it produces returns below the cost of capital. That's why we've seen movement in production from places like America to China. My argument is that you produce wealth by creating returns that are in excess of the cost of capital. You destroy it if it's the reverse. So we could find out that America has actually done the right thing by letting China do the manufacturing. That's all just my theory, though. I've been thinking like this since the 90's. So far, I've been shown to be resoundingly completely wrong (at least as it appears on the surface. Will I have been proven to be very wrong until I'm proven very right, or is the whole thing just a completely invalid theory on my part).

by bserge 6y ago

whoevercares 6y ago

It’s a zero or one game for China —- they can make 10000 right decisions but the system could collapse with one, just one wrong decision. It’s not fault tolerant as the democracy system

squiggleblaz 6y ago
Which single wrong decision is going to collapse China? Their administration have made wrong decisions before — unless you subscribe to some outlandish conspiracy theory. It seems far more likely that if they collapse, it will be as a consequence of a series of wrong decisions, in a completely boring way. The straw that breaks the camel's back will be the same as all the straws before it, except that everyone will analyse it to death considering the camel could hold thousands of other very similar straws, just not this one.
- whoevercares 6y ago
  What I meant is high level strategic decisions. Example like cultural revolution. It’s really a single decision from one dictator and get carried out super efficiently. If you are Chinese, you’ll probably understand what I meant how single decisions could collapse China without even my explanation. China is strange, critical policies like cultural revolution and Deng’s decision to open the country was really very short and succinct words on paper
- AnimalMuppet 6y ago
  What single wrong decision? Invading Taiwan (depending on the US response). That could collapse a lot more than China...
- adamc 6y ago
  Any military decision that could trigger nuclear war has that potential.
- fomine3 6y ago
  Like this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward
loceng 6y ago
I was thinking that going after Ma so publicly could be one such decision, however what news is the CCP allowing regular citizens to see - what propaganda they're promoting to demonize Ma, etc. makes me realize it's probably a non-issue; even other billionaires in China may not be much wiser.
Bakary 6y ago
The advantage China has is that they can plan over the long term without worrying about short term concerns. This means that they are in a better position to avoid the slide into wrong decisions that compound over time, though by no means immune to it.
- medium_burrito 6y ago
  If they are so good at long term planning, then why is so much stuff they do shortsighted? IE... Building the 3 Gorges dam out of various types of concrete, and not letting it cure properly, etc. Every possible corner was cut, repeatedly. This is a project that not only supplies power- it is supposed to control floods, and they more or less agreed that it won't work for that. The damage to the dam this year must have been immense, and as the climate changes we can expect more of the same kind of rainfall and flooding. In no possible universe is a major dam collapse flooding Wuhan under 2m of water and washing away Pudong an example of "short term concerns". Building empty cities, despite having a population that will decline very soon, and low quality construction that degrades relatively quickly. Ok, short-term consequence is the real estate bubble keeps on going, but if you are worried about the long term, probably better to nip that in the bud. And don't even get me started on the Belt and Road initiative, which is an expensive jobs program that has hurt China's image abroad.

dougmwne 6y ago

That is the problem with autocracy. If the leadership is good, it is very efficient and effective. Unfortunately based on thousands of years of examples, good leaders are rare. Without checks on power, bad leaders can tear a country down at lightening speed. Democracy is absolutely a messy government and it is frustrating to watch the glacial speed and bickering. It is also a very stable government that checks the worst impulses of the human lust for power. It keeps the power-hungry chasing each other's tails and away from the ship's wheel.

AnimalMuppet 6y ago
Good leaders don't even have to be rare. They just have to be not forever. Sooner or later you get a bad one. The more power they have, the worse the damage. The US has had bad presidents. They did damage. But without the checks and balances, they would have done far more.
- dougmwne 6y ago
  And we got to watch those checks and balances play out this very weekend. Incredible to watch somone who would happily accept a crown be taken as a fool instead. Our system of governments may not be perfect, but it has certainly avoided a major historical event.
  - AnimalMuppet 6y ago
    Yeah. I'm rather pleased with how well the US system held up to Trump. It wasn't perfect, and there has been damage, but overall the checks and balances did their job.
blippage 6y ago
Democracy is the worst form of government there is, except for all the others. -- Winston Churchill. I may be factually wrong, but I hear that Singapore is/was somewhat autocratic. However, the government was competent and honest, avoiding things like nepotism and suchlike. The result of all this is that starting from the mid-20th century, it grew from one of the poorest nations on earth to one of the richest. All this as a small island country that even has to import its own water. China is basically a giant kleptocracy. My dad is fond of China, but I am hesitant. China is so corrupt that it's hard for good things to come from it. I guess it is slowly industrialising and getting better, but it seems to be labouring under a heavy burden. I have long been suspicious that the Chinese economy would collapse. My theory is that it produces returns below the cost of capital. That's why we've seen movement in production from places like America to China. My argument is that you produce wealth by creating returns that are in excess of the cost of capital. You destroy it if it's the reverse. So we could find out that America has actually done the right thing by letting China do the manufacturing. That's all just my theory, though. I've been thinking like this since the 90's. So far, I've been shown to be resoundingly completely wrong (at least as it appears on the surface. Will I have been proven to be very wrong until I'm proven very right, or is the whole thing just a completely invalid theory on my part).