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What can the trade blocks do? Sanctions would be tantamount to what was seen at the start of the pandemic. Basically cutting your local economy off from the wor

by ianai 6y ago

What can the trade blocks do? Sanctions would be tantamount to what was seen at the start of the pandemic. Basically cutting your local economy off from the world’s manufacturing. War would be even more extreme. There’s 1.3 billion Chinese. Their government is capable of being infinitely more organized and long thinking than just about all the others. Maybe a world war could curb the inevitable sans nuclear weapons. With nuclear weapons... Perhaps if the smaller trade blocs all rejected vehemently China along with the major it’d be a stronger position. Say in reaction to such actions. The large trade parties could help this by investing with infrastructure and other such programs in those countries. Possibly hoping for the Chinese people to change their form of government from within is the “nicest” option.

ianai 6y ago
Basically, you've got to reproduce the factors within China making them such strong trading partners outside of them in a way they cannot diminish unilaterally. This could be done with political will or reproduction of their capacity. Personally, I wonder whether a UBI in a developed country could work to essentially lower their external 'trading costs'. Try to change their thought processes at the margin. i.e. Make the local goods and services out compete the foreign goods/services through moving local costs not observed in foreign goods/services to localized costs. i.e. Maybe a person making a UBI would be willing to do a job for (X+U) - where (X+U) is their reservation price, X is the foreign price, and U the UBI. Edit-flipped signs
BunsanSpace 6y ago
The long thinking aspect of the Chinese government is Chinese propaganda. You see them announcing long term goals and going on giant infrastructure projects, which go on to be under used, poorly built e&. China has serious structural issues that the CCP is trying to hide. Massive food, drug and alcohol fraud hurting people (fake alcohol is a HUGE issue). Riots, mass stabbings/attacks, economic slowdown/hardship. All of which the CCP covers up because foreign media can't easily penetrate, and the CCP control the domestic media/narrative. China is a house of lies, they're essentially trying to fake it until they make it.
- whoevercares 6y ago
  “massive” is somewhat ambiguous and common Chinese citizens would disagree with you that they have “massive” attacks and riots every few days. Fake alcohol WAS an issue that people talked about years ago but it’s rarely heard nowadays.
  - BunsanSpace 6y ago
    It's very very common. But when domestic media won't cover it full stop, and even social media is heavily censored, it's hard to tell. My view is based on ex-pats who've shared their experience and did pseudo journalism there.
- godtoldmetodoit 6y ago
  China is definitely facing some fundamental issues now - #1 being their aging population. Their demographic profile is a major drag on growth and will only get worse over the next few decades. When you have an aging population, the young need to take care of them, and when the old outnumber the young that tends to result in angst as the young are not as well off as those who came before them.
- NoOneNew 6y ago
  I agree with you about the overblown aspect of long term thinking... but I dont think you can fully discount it. Like it or not, a long term leader does have the benefit of seeing through long term ideas to the fullest. There is a lot of value in that, however that doesn't mean I'm fully convinced that winnie the pooh over there knows a good long term investment even if it threw honey in his face. A lot of their foreign infrastructure investments have been... either great genius we cant comprehend or they're complete idiots. There could be background plays that we'll never know about that actually do make them good maneuvers. As they stand, er, as they crumble from lack of use and maintenance, they dont seem good on the surface. Now, the long term taking stake in foreign entities, that one... that seems smart on the surface. As to what end, dont know and without a long form of discussion isnt practical to talk about here. House of lies... eh, barn full of horseshit if you ask me... but even horseshit has its uses... and flies. So many fucking flies. I hate horses. That and dude yea, the mass stabbings are insane over there.
cheph 6y ago
> What can the trade blocks do? Sanctions would be tantamount to what was seen at the start of the pandemic. What happened to never again? Or was it really "never again, unless we don't want to offend our authoritarian overloads, because god forbid we do something that offends them". EU and US should absolutely sanction China, and hard. Potential negative economic impacts is no excuse for continuing relations with China.
- NoOneNew 6y ago
  Philosophically, I agree with you. Pragmatically, I cant. Could be the one brilliant or accidental play that the CCP made, they hold the majority of manufacturing. It's not just about money. The covid lockdowns showed how dependent the world is on chinese manufacturing. Essentially the situation that every "xenophobic" warned about. Generally, it should be more of a centralized vs distributed discussion when it comes to manufacturing sourcing instead of a US vs China argument (or lowercase us, because I think other countries are in the same boat). But one is emotionally charged and gets clicks, and the other is a thoughtful form of discourse no one will ever listen to. Until the rest of the G20 distributes their goods sources to both internal and other external locales, China won't get a meaningful sanction anytime soon. The average "moral" person may say we should all do the right thing no matter the economic outcome... when push comes to shove, they back off that real quick. You can only calmly walk the high ground if someone bled before you to take that hill.
- boomboomsubban 6y ago
  >What happened to never again? Your proposed action would put millions of Chinese at extreme risk. "Potential negative economic impacts" isn't some vague reduction of profits, it's the poor having more limited access to what they need to survive.
  - cheph 6y ago
    And not doing this puts billions of people at extreme risk. I have no problem with accepting refugees from China. I have serious problems with continued relations with a country that is currently committing genocide. We have to buck up here, it is now or never.
esotericimpl 6y ago
If only there was a pacific partnership of many other countries that left China out in the cold. Maybe since its across the pacific it would be considered "trans". Alas, it was torn up and now china leads the way with SEA and other east asian countries.
ghostwriter 6y ago
> There’s 1.3 billion Chinese. Their government is capable of being infinitely more organized and long thinking than just about all the others. Those are the people that inhabit the territory. Don't attribute them all to a single party and to the same set of moral values that the party proclaims. One day it can turn out that their government is a joke, as it had happened before with USSR.

by ianai 6y ago

ianai 6y ago

Basically, you've got to reproduce the factors within China making them such strong trading partners outside of them in a way they cannot diminish unilaterally. This could be done with political will or reproduction of their capacity. Personally, I wonder whether a UBI in a developed country could work to essentially lower their external 'trading costs'. Try to change their thought processes at the margin. i.e. Make the local goods and services out compete the foreign goods/services through moving local costs not observed in foreign goods/services to localized costs. i.e. Maybe a person making a UBI would be willing to do a job for (X+U) - where (X+U) is their reservation price, X is the foreign price, and U the UBI. Edit-flipped signs

BunsanSpace 6y ago

The long thinking aspect of the Chinese government is Chinese propaganda. You see them announcing long term goals and going on giant infrastructure projects, which go on to be under used, poorly built e&. China has serious structural issues that the CCP is trying to hide. Massive food, drug and alcohol fraud hurting people (fake alcohol is a HUGE issue). Riots, mass stabbings/attacks, economic slowdown/hardship. All of which the CCP covers up because foreign media can't easily penetrate, and the CCP control the domestic media/narrative. China is a house of lies, they're essentially trying to fake it until they make it.

whoevercares 6y ago
“massive” is somewhat ambiguous and common Chinese citizens would disagree with you that they have “massive” attacks and riots every few days. Fake alcohol WAS an issue that people talked about years ago but it’s rarely heard nowadays.
- BunsanSpace 6y ago
  It's very very common. But when domestic media won't cover it full stop, and even social media is heavily censored, it's hard to tell. My view is based on ex-pats who've shared their experience and did pseudo journalism there.
godtoldmetodoit 6y ago
China is definitely facing some fundamental issues now - #1 being their aging population. Their demographic profile is a major drag on growth and will only get worse over the next few decades. When you have an aging population, the young need to take care of them, and when the old outnumber the young that tends to result in angst as the young are not as well off as those who came before them.
NoOneNew 6y ago
I agree with you about the overblown aspect of long term thinking... but I dont think you can fully discount it. Like it or not, a long term leader does have the benefit of seeing through long term ideas to the fullest. There is a lot of value in that, however that doesn't mean I'm fully convinced that winnie the pooh over there knows a good long term investment even if it threw honey in his face. A lot of their foreign infrastructure investments have been... either great genius we cant comprehend or they're complete idiots. There could be background plays that we'll never know about that actually do make them good maneuvers. As they stand, er, as they crumble from lack of use and maintenance, they dont seem good on the surface. Now, the long term taking stake in foreign entities, that one... that seems smart on the surface. As to what end, dont know and without a long form of discussion isnt practical to talk about here. House of lies... eh, barn full of horseshit if you ask me... but even horseshit has its uses... and flies. So many fucking flies. I hate horses. That and dude yea, the mass stabbings are insane over there.

cheph 6y ago

> What can the trade blocks do? Sanctions would be tantamount to what was seen at the start of the pandemic. What happened to never again? Or was it really "never again, unless we don't want to offend our authoritarian overloads, because god forbid we do something that offends them". EU and US should absolutely sanction China, and hard. Potential negative economic impacts is no excuse for continuing relations with China.

NoOneNew 6y ago
Philosophically, I agree with you. Pragmatically, I cant. Could be the one brilliant or accidental play that the CCP made, they hold the majority of manufacturing. It's not just about money. The covid lockdowns showed how dependent the world is on chinese manufacturing. Essentially the situation that every "xenophobic" warned about. Generally, it should be more of a centralized vs distributed discussion when it comes to manufacturing sourcing instead of a US vs China argument (or lowercase us, because I think other countries are in the same boat). But one is emotionally charged and gets clicks, and the other is a thoughtful form of discourse no one will ever listen to. Until the rest of the G20 distributes their goods sources to both internal and other external locales, China won't get a meaningful sanction anytime soon. The average "moral" person may say we should all do the right thing no matter the economic outcome... when push comes to shove, they back off that real quick. You can only calmly walk the high ground if someone bled before you to take that hill.
boomboomsubban 6y ago
>What happened to never again? Your proposed action would put millions of Chinese at extreme risk. "Potential negative economic impacts" isn't some vague reduction of profits, it's the poor having more limited access to what they need to survive.
- cheph 6y ago
  And not doing this puts billions of people at extreme risk. I have no problem with accepting refugees from China. I have serious problems with continued relations with a country that is currently committing genocide. We have to buck up here, it is now or never.

esotericimpl 6y ago

If only there was a pacific partnership of many other countries that left China out in the cold. Maybe since its across the pacific it would be considered "trans". Alas, it was torn up and now china leads the way with SEA and other east asian countries.

ghostwriter 6y ago

> There’s 1.3 billion Chinese. Their government is capable of being infinitely more organized and long thinking than just about all the others. Those are the people that inhabit the territory. Don't attribute them all to a single party and to the same set of moral values that the party proclaims. One day it can turn out that their government is a joke, as it had happened before with USSR.