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It can happen that an almost certainly bogus scientific field persists for decades using state of the art research methods and no bad faith on the part of the r
by adrusi 6y ago
It can happen that an almost certainly bogus scientific field persists for decades using state of the art research methods and no bad faith on the part of the researchers (any bias they introduce is probably not conscious). https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/04/28/the-control-group-is-out-of-control/ https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/04/28/the-control-group-is-o...
A/B testing is... not a state of the art scientific research technique. Moreover the companies that provide the tools to do A/B testing are the same companies that sell you access to advertising space. I'm not saying that it's a common practice to defraud A/B tests, I'm saying that the fact that adtech companies have chosen to enable that research methodology out of the set of all methodologies they could offer suggests that we should expect, before seeing the results of any A/B trial, that the results will tend to favor the adtech narrative.
I don't think that people in the adtech space believe they're selling a bogus product, but I do think they wouldn't want to know if they were — they have a good thing going.
If you're employed in adtech you're mostly fine, skills transfer. If you're invested in adtech, do what you can to diversify away. Advertising is overvalued to some extent and that bubble will burst at some point or other. The question is just how much actual value advertising provides, how much will remain when the bubble bursts.