>or there has to be a big increase in new cars sold, which would be news in itself. Sure, but seems feasible. I mean upfront, 10-year horizons during disruptiv

>or there has to be a big increase in new cars sold, which would be news in itself. Sure, but seems feasible. I mean upfront, 10-year horizons during disruptive shifts absolutely can get a bit speculative. I don't mean to make any hard predictions here. But there certainly seems to be a ton of capital floating around right now that could get redirected given the right incentives. Privately, there seem to be a significant number of people who could buy new cars but aren't. Cars seem to last significantly longer these days [0, 1], and the burgeoning of EVs may itself act as a further deterrent. If minimum capex and TCO made major shifts, I could see that driving significantly faster replacement cycles temporarily until new market equilibrium and saturation was reached. Granted with some floors created by segments of the population who couldn't handle the capex even if the opex was favorable as is so often the case. But speaking of that there is the public side too. From what I can tell, a LOT of money continues to go into government subsidies of fossil fuels [2]. The politics will absolutely shift as the population shifts, and at some point it seems likely that "why not put those tens of billions into 'cash for clunkers' type schemes instead?" is going to make it one or another platform. Or all the platforms competing with each other. Of course that applies only to certain countries that can afford it. At any rate, it will be an interesting decade! ---- 0: https://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/18/automobiles/as-cars-are-kept-longer-200000-is-new-100000.html https://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/18/automobiles/as-cars-are-k... 1: https://www.aarp.org/auto/trends-lifestyle/info-2018/how-long-do-cars-last.html https://www.aarp.org/auto/trends-lifestyle/info-2018/how-lon... 2: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesellsmoor/2019/06/15/united-states-spend-ten-times-more-on-fossil-fuel-subsidies-than-education/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesellsmoor/2019/06/15/united...