2 ms·

Death counts don’t tell you much. If the main effect of the virus is ultimately to advance a bunch of older people’s deaths by a year or two, then it’s not a bi

Death counts don’t tell you much. If the main effect of the virus is ultimately to advance a bunch of older people’s deaths by a year or two, then it’s not a big deal. People live and people die, that’s life.

mcguire 6y ago
"We estimated roughly 1.2 million YLLs due to COVID-19 deaths." ("for the period 1 February 2020 through 11 July 2020.") https://academic.oup.com/jpubhealth/article/42/4/717/5901977 https://academic.oup.com/jpubhealth/article/42/4/717/5901977 "Deaths among adults 65 and older accounted for 80% of excess YLL in April but only 36% of excess YLL in June. Since April, working age adults 20-64 have accounted for 47% of excess YLL, and males 20 to 64 have contributed 34%." https://healthcostinstitute.org/hcci-research/the-impact-of-covid-19-on-years-of-life-lost https://healthcostinstitute.org/hcci-research/the-impact-of-...
- anonunivgrad 6y ago
  YLL is an interesting metric but deceptive. As the article says, about 80% of deaths have been in the 65 and above bracket.
  - adolph 6y ago
    Wouldn't YLL be a better measure between pandemics? Lets say pandemic A kills 100 humans at 25% of life consumed versus pandemic B that kills 200h at 75% of life consumed. If only lives are counted then B is 100% worse. But if the human-years are measured then pandemic A is 50% worse. Given a zero-sum trolley car dilemma, is plain lives or YLL a better measure of utility? For example, if a person dies at age 50, and life expectancy at age 50 is more 25 years, then the YLL is 25. In contrast, if a person dies at age 80 and life expectancy at 80 is 2 more years, then YLL is 2. https://healthcostinstitute.org/hcci-research/the-impact-of-covid-19-on-years-of-life-lost https://healthcostinstitute.org/hcci-research/the-impact-of-... Stipulation: if the baseline life-length is 80 years and a ninety year old dies, then the YLL is 0 and not -10.
    - IfOnlyYouKnew 6y ago
      > Stipulation: if the baseline life-length is 80 years and a ninety year old dies, then the YLL is 0 and not -10. No, of course it isn't. A 90-year old isn't expected to instantly die. They have some remaining live expectancy, maybe two or three years, even if they have passed median live expectancy.

mcguire 6y ago

"We estimated roughly 1.2 million YLLs due to COVID-19 deaths." ("for the period 1 February 2020 through 11 July 2020.") https://academic.oup.com/jpubhealth/article/42/4/717/5901977 https://academic.oup.com/jpubhealth/article/42/4/717/5901977 "Deaths among adults 65 and older accounted for 80% of excess YLL in April but only 36% of excess YLL in June. Since April, working age adults 20-64 have accounted for 47% of excess YLL, and males 20 to 64 have contributed 34%." https://healthcostinstitute.org/hcci-research/the-impact-of-covid-19-on-years-of-life-lost https://healthcostinstitute.org/hcci-research/the-impact-of-...

anonunivgrad 6y ago
YLL is an interesting metric but deceptive. As the article says, about 80% of deaths have been in the 65 and above bracket.
- adolph 6y ago
  Wouldn't YLL be a better measure between pandemics? Lets say pandemic A kills 100 humans at 25% of life consumed versus pandemic B that kills 200h at 75% of life consumed. If only lives are counted then B is 100% worse. But if the human-years are measured then pandemic A is 50% worse. Given a zero-sum trolley car dilemma, is plain lives or YLL a better measure of utility? For example, if a person dies at age 50, and life expectancy at age 50 is more 25 years, then the YLL is 25. In contrast, if a person dies at age 80 and life expectancy at 80 is 2 more years, then YLL is 2. https://healthcostinstitute.org/hcci-research/the-impact-of-covid-19-on-years-of-life-lost https://healthcostinstitute.org/hcci-research/the-impact-of-... Stipulation: if the baseline life-length is 80 years and a ninety year old dies, then the YLL is 0 and not -10.
  - IfOnlyYouKnew 6y ago
    > Stipulation: if the baseline life-length is 80 years and a ninety year old dies, then the YLL is 0 and not -10. No, of course it isn't. A 90-year old isn't expected to instantly die. They have some remaining live expectancy, maybe two or three years, even if they have passed median live expectancy.