4 ms·
> When you instead grade his foresight on the basis of how he predicts the development of technology over time, it's clear that a lot of what would seem to be p
by henrikschroder 6y ago
> When you instead grade his foresight on the basis of how he predicts the development of technology over time, it's clear that a lot of what would seem to be partial hits if assessed alone should actually be graded as hard fails. Discussion about the ubiquity of computers and their use in non-traditional roles for computers is a firm example here.
Absolutely, and this blog post is being way too generous.
In part one, he gave this a RIGHT: “Computers are now largely invisible. They are embedded everywhere–in walls, tables, chairs, desks, clothing, jewelry, and bodies.”
Yes, but actually no. You know that what Kurzweil was imagining was that there would be powerful computers embedded in stuff, and each would run some sort of AI with personality, so your toaster would have a personality, and your TV would have a personality, and it could - in a Star Wars droid-y way - recommend movies to you, allowing you to have a conversation with it:
"Sir, I think this new SciFi series called The Expanse would be very interesting to you!"
Yes, my TV has a processor. Yes, my TV has WiFi. But it's primary purpose is to show me ads and spy on what I'm watching to increase ad revenues somewhere, and although I can "talk" to my TV, what actually happens is that if I say the title of a movie or a show, my audio will be transmitted to some server somewhere, wrongly transcribed, and then my TV will display all the places I can rent episodes of Friends from.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Hard fail.
- m4rtink 6y agoIf your definition of computer includes microcontrollers then we indeed have computers embedded in about anything.
- sammax 6y ago> walls, tables, chairs, desks, clothing, jewelry, and bodies None of those routinely have microcontrollers in them. The closest are probably bodies (e.g. pacemakers) and maybe walls (e.g. smart light switches or power outlets with USB sockets). Jewelry with various computing devices exists but is hardly common and the only desks with computers in them that I know of are these gaming PC case desks that almost nobody has.
- m4rtink 6y agoI have an eymask with integrated Bluetooth headphones & motorized standing desks are controlled by a MCU. As for chairs - dentist chair setups are pretty sophisticated and include stuff such as built in panoramic xray device.
- sammax 6y agoSure but those things are not the norm. Or rather, motorized standing desks with microcontrollers are the norm for motorized standing desks, but not for desks. Same for dentist chairs, they are not the norm for chairs. Do they actually put xray devices directly into the chair? I always had to go into a special shielded room with an xray machine that slowly moves around my head.
- umvi 6y agoYes, but he picked the wrong "everything". Not "walls, tables, chairs" but "cars, phones, and tvs"
- joejerryronnie 6y agoAs an aside, my droid TV better recommend The Expanse or I’m going Butlerian Jihad on it.