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> I think that, in a well-run civilization, the first covid vaccines would’ve been tested and approved by around March or April 2020, while mass-manufacturing s
by aaron-santos 6y ago
> I think that, in a well-run civilization, the first covid vaccines would’ve been tested and approved by around March or April 2020, while mass-manufacturing simultaneously ramped up with trillions of dollars’ investment.
We have 60 clinical vaccines[1]. Which ones? All of them? The first one? The first dozen?
You're going to see a bunch more of these types of arguments from hindsight in the coming months. The choice wasn't to approve or deny and then manufacture the vaccines we have today. It was to find the signal in the noise.
[1] https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-c...
- maxfan8 6y agoThe article addresses this point: > Instead events—including the staggering cost of delay, the spectacular failures of institutional authorities to adapt to the scientific realities of covid, and the long-awaited finding that all the major vaccines safely work (some better than others), just like the experts predicted back in February—all this only made me more confident of my original, stupid and naïve position.
- aaron-santos 6y agoThank you for digging up the quote. Not to argue against you, but to this part of the article. This again is arguing about making a decision with information we have available to us now. Now we know all major vaccines safely work. Scott Aaronson should be able to back up this claim, that among the vaccines we had in February all turned out to be effective so choosing amongst them at random would have yielded an acceptable outcome, with a source.