I think this is close to the truth but misses an important factor: journal editors are, as a result of increasing submissions, asking for more refereeing. As a

I think this is close to the truth but misses an important factor: journal editors are, as a result of increasing submissions, asking for more refereeing. As a result, an increasingly high proportion of academics don't referee at all and those that do tend to referee more papers in less depth. With less time spent per referee report, easily appreciated evidence of polish matters more where papers that pay attention to careful issues of methodology, tackle deep problems, etc., require time on the part of the referee that they are unwilling to spend.