5 ms·

Anyone else think this will never end? How many years will you stay home?

by mrfusion 6y ago

brundolf 6y ago
People are literally getting vaccinated as we speak.
- mrfusion 6y ago
  https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/16/fauci-why-still-need-masks-social-distancing-after-covid-19-vaccine.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/16/fauci-why-still-need-masks-s... Feels like another goal post being moved. (FWIW I’d love to be wrong, so please share any optimism.)
  - heyitsguay 6y ago
    There's cause for optimism! Basically, it'll take a big chunk of 2021 to vaccinate everyone (at best), immunity may take a while to kick in, and while vaccines may be 90ish% effective, continuing to follow transmission reduction measures will help further mitigate spread while COVID is still prevalent, so keep it up for a couple months after the bulk of people start receiving vaccines. Not amazing, but also not indefinite, and I believe this has been the messaging for quite a while now.
  - Trasmatta 6y ago
    I'm not sure what you're asking. Do you think vaccines won't work, just because Fauci is advising caution even after you get one? That's good advice until society has widespread immunity, and it has nothing to do with the efficacy of the vaccines.
    - throwaway894345 6y ago
      Surely the reasoning is “since the vaccine is only 95% effective, it is prudent to exercise caution until we reach herd immunity, because you might be one of the 5% who aren’t immune”. But clearly that does pertain to the efficacy of the virus, so I don’t think I understand your meaning.
      - Trasmatta 6y ago
        You're right, it's partially that and partially the fact that you need two doses and potentially 2 weeks or more after the second dose to hit that 95% effectiveness. I was more responding to the idea that "maybe the vaccine isn't effective at all" which it seemed like the poster above might have been hinting at. Which doesn't make a lot of sense, because the article they linked pretty clearly lays out the rationale.
        throwaway894345 6y ago
        Ah, that makes sense. Thanks for clarifying!
      - dehrmann 6y ago
        How will we know we've reached it without people taking off masks and gathering in groups? It's also worth mentioning herd immunity depends on r0, and r0 changes when behaviors change.
oxfordmale 6y ago
Pandemics like this last two years. It will be over in 2022. Even without vaccine herd immunity would set in at some point. The vaccine roll out is going to speed this up, although it will take until the summer before it starts having a major impact on the number of cases
- mrfusion 6y ago
  Interesting. What makes you say two years?
  - oxfordmale 6y ago
    Spanish flu lasted about two years.
    - IAmGraydon 6y ago
      You think this will last two years because a pandemic 100 years ago did? Do you think all pandemics last the same amount of time or...what’s your reasoning here?
    - dehrmann 6y ago
      The Spanish Flu didn't have as many interventions as we have now, so it was allowed to run its course. We're actually in uncharted territory right now--we've never stopped a pandemic like this before. If the virus mutates faster than we can vaccinate, we could have just dragged out the inevitable. We could have also made it endemic by slowing its spread and selected extra contagious strains. Meanwhile, colds and flus are way down, but there might be unintended consequences of not using your immune system for a year+.
- spideymans 6y ago
  >Even without vaccine herd immunity would set in at some point. Doesn't immunity only last a few months?
  - mrfusion 6y ago
dm319 6y ago
I understand that this is how it feels. But the natural history of pandemics is that they end.
- mrfusion 6y ago
  This one will end but how do you fell about these kind of articles? https://www.vice.com/en/article/k7q9x9/humans-living-in-age-of-pandemics-covid-19-coronavirus https://www.vice.com/en/article/k7q9x9/humans-living-in-age-...
- williamstein 6y ago
  HIV/AIDS is the other pandemic right now.

Anyone else think this will never end? How many years will you stay home?

brundolf 6y ago

People are literally getting vaccinated as we speak.

mrfusion 6y ago
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/16/fauci-why-still-need-masks-social-distancing-after-covid-19-vaccine.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/16/fauci-why-still-need-masks-s... Feels like another goal post being moved. (FWIW I’d love to be wrong, so please share any optimism.)
- heyitsguay 6y ago
  There's cause for optimism! Basically, it'll take a big chunk of 2021 to vaccinate everyone (at best), immunity may take a while to kick in, and while vaccines may be 90ish% effective, continuing to follow transmission reduction measures will help further mitigate spread while COVID is still prevalent, so keep it up for a couple months after the bulk of people start receiving vaccines. Not amazing, but also not indefinite, and I believe this has been the messaging for quite a while now.
- Trasmatta 6y ago
  I'm not sure what you're asking. Do you think vaccines won't work, just because Fauci is advising caution even after you get one? That's good advice until society has widespread immunity, and it has nothing to do with the efficacy of the vaccines.
  - throwaway894345 6y ago
    Surely the reasoning is “since the vaccine is only 95% effective, it is prudent to exercise caution until we reach herd immunity, because you might be one of the 5% who aren’t immune”. But clearly that does pertain to the efficacy of the virus, so I don’t think I understand your meaning.
    - Trasmatta 6y ago
      You're right, it's partially that and partially the fact that you need two doses and potentially 2 weeks or more after the second dose to hit that 95% effectiveness. I was more responding to the idea that "maybe the vaccine isn't effective at all" which it seemed like the poster above might have been hinting at. Which doesn't make a lot of sense, because the article they linked pretty clearly lays out the rationale.
      - throwaway894345 6y ago
        Ah, that makes sense. Thanks for clarifying!
    - dehrmann 6y ago
      How will we know we've reached it without people taking off masks and gathering in groups? It's also worth mentioning herd immunity depends on r0, and r0 changes when behaviors change.

oxfordmale 6y ago

Pandemics like this last two years. It will be over in 2022. Even without vaccine herd immunity would set in at some point. The vaccine roll out is going to speed this up, although it will take until the summer before it starts having a major impact on the number of cases

mrfusion 6y ago
Interesting. What makes you say two years?
- oxfordmale 6y ago
  Spanish flu lasted about two years.
  - IAmGraydon 6y ago
    You think this will last two years because a pandemic 100 years ago did? Do you think all pandemics last the same amount of time or...what’s your reasoning here?
  - dehrmann 6y ago
    The Spanish Flu didn't have as many interventions as we have now, so it was allowed to run its course. We're actually in uncharted territory right now--we've never stopped a pandemic like this before. If the virus mutates faster than we can vaccinate, we could have just dragged out the inevitable. We could have also made it endemic by slowing its spread and selected extra contagious strains. Meanwhile, colds and flus are way down, but there might be unintended consequences of not using your immune system for a year+.
spideymans 6y ago
>Even without vaccine herd immunity would set in at some point. Doesn't immunity only last a few months?
- mrfusion 6y ago

dm319 6y ago

I understand that this is how it feels. But the natural history of pandemics is that they end.

mrfusion 6y ago
This one will end but how do you fell about these kind of articles? https://www.vice.com/en/article/k7q9x9/humans-living-in-age-of-pandemics-covid-19-coronavirus https://www.vice.com/en/article/k7q9x9/humans-living-in-age-...
williamstein 6y ago
HIV/AIDS is the other pandemic right now.