3 ms·

An interesting thread here on this topic. That 0.7 increase can have devastating impacts. Also worth noting this variant is now spreading in SoCal, CO, and most

by erentz 6y ago

An interesting thread here on this topic. That 0.7 increase can have devastating impacts. Also worth noting this variant is now spreading in SoCal, CO, and most recently found in FL too. So the post holiday surge that’s already underway could get compounded by this variant. https://mobile.twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1344774555718590464 https://mobile.twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/13447745557185...

CydeWeys 6y ago
People have been saying since early 2020 that this winter was going to be the absolute worst of it (based on historical experience with e.g. the 1918 flu pandemic), and they were right. They didn't anticipate how quickly we'd develop a vaccine, but they also didn't anticipate such a more contagious variant. And the vaccine unfortunately won't roll out fast enough this winter to really put a damper on it. I fear that by February most cities will be going through what we here in NYC faced last April.
- kossTKR 6y ago
  I agree, but i also find it quite weird that the "seasonal angle" has been almost non existent, so why are people surprised? Most regions of the world have been following the regular flu intensity almost to a T. Especially in northern Europe after a summer with almost open societies and no grave surges. With this in mind we will peak when regular flu used to peak, ie. we are only now at the very start of some very bad months (for the latitudes with winter now). Also while this new variant may be the culprit, the regular flu probably also mutates in a similar pattern - though it could be that this variant is a heavy factor, but for me we are still pretty much following the seasons.
dm319 6y ago
Had a quick look at the figures for the UK today - it looks really bad, we've just overtaken the US on daily caserate at around 750 new daily cases / million. Germany were previously increasing fairly alarmingly in November, but seem to have been able to slow the increase down, if not get it heading down again. France had a large spike in November, got it under control in December, but are on the rise again (though under a new lockdown/curfew as of today). The problem now in the UK is the winter pressures are at their worst, we haven't even seen the impact of Christmas relaxation yet, and we've just exceeded the peak number of covid inpatients seen in the first wave. We're going to start seeing hospitals closing to new admissions soon (diverting to other nearby hospitals) as they hit full capacity.

by erentz 6y ago

CydeWeys 6y ago

People have been saying since early 2020 that this winter was going to be the absolute worst of it (based on historical experience with e.g. the 1918 flu pandemic), and they were right. They didn't anticipate how quickly we'd develop a vaccine, but they also didn't anticipate such a more contagious variant. And the vaccine unfortunately won't roll out fast enough this winter to really put a damper on it. I fear that by February most cities will be going through what we here in NYC faced last April.

kossTKR 6y ago
I agree, but i also find it quite weird that the "seasonal angle" has been almost non existent, so why are people surprised? Most regions of the world have been following the regular flu intensity almost to a T. Especially in northern Europe after a summer with almost open societies and no grave surges. With this in mind we will peak when regular flu used to peak, ie. we are only now at the very start of some very bad months (for the latitudes with winter now). Also while this new variant may be the culprit, the regular flu probably also mutates in a similar pattern - though it could be that this variant is a heavy factor, but for me we are still pretty much following the seasons.

dm319 6y ago

Had a quick look at the figures for the UK today - it looks really bad, we've just overtaken the US on daily caserate at around 750 new daily cases / million. Germany were previously increasing fairly alarmingly in November, but seem to have been able to slow the increase down, if not get it heading down again. France had a large spike in November, got it under control in December, but are on the rise again (though under a new lockdown/curfew as of today). The problem now in the UK is the winter pressures are at their worst, we haven't even seen the impact of Christmas relaxation yet, and we've just exceeded the peak number of covid inpatients seen in the first wave. We're going to start seeing hospitals closing to new admissions soon (diverting to other nearby hospitals) as they hit full capacity.