3 ms·
It is already bearing chaos in British hospitals, and it’s early days. With 50k infections a day, say the true number is 100k, in 3 months only about 1.5% of t
by rich_sasha 6y ago
It is already bearing chaos in British hospitals, and it’s early days.
With 50k infections a day, say the true number is 100k, in 3 months only about 1.5% of the UK popularion get infected, not really significant for her immunity numbers.
- kolinko 6y agoWell, it’s a week after x-mass so all countries see big increases because of family gatherings
- mynegation 6y agoIs that right? 100K daily infections give you 100,000 x 30 x 3 = 9,000,000 in three months which is 13% of 68M. Not anywhere close to herd immunity but not 1.5% either
- fellow_human 6y agoVaccinations can bring us closer to herd immunity too. Or at least take the load of the hospital system by covering off the vulnerable population.
- oxfordmale 6y agoBased on an IFR of 0.44, around 17 million already have contracted Covid. 9 million will not get us to full herd immunity, however, will reduce super spreading events (as super spreaders will already have had the disease)
- rich_sasha 6y agoAh yes my bad, off by 10x . Make it 15%. More, though as you say, not “enough more”
- baggy_trough 6y agoYou're off by an order of magnitude.