we make this kind of mistake all the time. it's the basis of the "you get what you measure" aphorism. confidence and charisma are secondary signals, loosely cor

we make this kind of mistake all the time. it's the basis of the "you get what you measure" aphorism. confidence and charisma are secondary signals, loosely correlated with wisdom and capability. once we emphasize confidence and charisma over wisdom and capability in our leader-choosing algorithm (how political contests have evolved, for instance), we're pressuring the system to weaken that correlation even further, as it's very hard (likely impossible) to maximize all desirable characteristics at the same time. we can see this with popularity itself, which has changed over the past century in the (american) culture from emphasizing capability to emphasizing confidence (with the concomitant rise of mass media and the concentration of mass attention and esteem).