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This always feel like political theater. This is so far down the road that we don't even know if gas powered vehicles would be in wide-spread use in the US at t

This always feel like political theater. This is so far down the road that we don't even know if gas powered vehicles would be in wide-spread use in the US at that time. And how much do you want to bet that if they are, this date will just be pushed back. And they are only banning new car sales of gas powered vehicles, so you could go to the next state to get a gas car, or buy a used car.

toomuchtodo 6y ago
You only need enough jurisdictions onboard to push manufacturers to only build EVs. Once they’ve made the capital investments, they’re not going back. That’s the goal: to get us across the Rubicon to where the only way forward is EVs, and to make it untenable to revert to building new combustion vehicles. Many more states and countries still needed to make these declarations, but you don’t need all of them, just enough. Keep an eye out for more announcements from other states in the near future.
- maxerickson 6y ago
  You only need enough jurisdictions onboard to push manufacturers to only build EVs. Once they’ve made the capital investments, they’re not going back. What does that look like? Is the idea that Ford is going to make dramatically less money per vehicle if they start building ⅓ the ICE engines that they build right now? Typically they offer multiple engines per vehicle, and have quite a range of engines across their product line, so it seems like maximal volume isn't an issue.
  - toomuchtodo 6y ago
    > What does that look like? Factory and assembly line reconfigurations. Increased automation and the capex that comes with that. Worker retraining, reskilling, and replacement. Suppliers of ICE components who attrition out of the supply chain, simply because there are so many less moving parts in an EV powertrain (for each, they will reach a point where the diminished volume no longer supports a continuing business supplying automakers).
    - maxerickson 6y ago
      Right, but it's likely enough that they can profitably make a fairly small fraction of current production volumes. For instance, if they move 1 factory out of 2, then they don't haven any capex or retraining associated with the factory they don't move. What I was getting at with the quite range of engines that they choose to produce is that they seem to have quite a lot of capacity to make money at lower volumes.
      - toomuchtodo 6y ago
        Ford’s margin is ~%10. Not a lot of wiggle room imo, even less if their volume declines as someone like Tesla takes market share (Cybertruck is at ~1 million reservations).
        maxerickson 6y ago
        On a huge range of vehicles once you look at what they make is what I am getting at. Do they bother stopping selling popular vehicles if 33% of the US market bans IC engines?
        toomuchtodo 6y ago
        Will have to model specifics and follow up.

toomuchtodo 6y ago

You only need enough jurisdictions onboard to push manufacturers to only build EVs. Once they’ve made the capital investments, they’re not going back. That’s the goal: to get us across the Rubicon to where the only way forward is EVs, and to make it untenable to revert to building new combustion vehicles. Many more states and countries still needed to make these declarations, but you don’t need all of them, just enough. Keep an eye out for more announcements from other states in the near future.

maxerickson 6y ago
You only need enough jurisdictions onboard to push manufacturers to only build EVs. Once they’ve made the capital investments, they’re not going back. What does that look like? Is the idea that Ford is going to make dramatically less money per vehicle if they start building ⅓ the ICE engines that they build right now? Typically they offer multiple engines per vehicle, and have quite a range of engines across their product line, so it seems like maximal volume isn't an issue.
- toomuchtodo 6y ago
  > What does that look like? Factory and assembly line reconfigurations. Increased automation and the capex that comes with that. Worker retraining, reskilling, and replacement. Suppliers of ICE components who attrition out of the supply chain, simply because there are so many less moving parts in an EV powertrain (for each, they will reach a point where the diminished volume no longer supports a continuing business supplying automakers).
  - maxerickson 6y ago
    Right, but it's likely enough that they can profitably make a fairly small fraction of current production volumes. For instance, if they move 1 factory out of 2, then they don't haven any capex or retraining associated with the factory they don't move. What I was getting at with the quite range of engines that they choose to produce is that they seem to have quite a lot of capacity to make money at lower volumes.
    - toomuchtodo 6y ago
      Ford’s margin is ~%10. Not a lot of wiggle room imo, even less if their volume declines as someone like Tesla takes market share (Cybertruck is at ~1 million reservations).
      - maxerickson 6y ago
        On a huge range of vehicles once you look at what they make is what I am getting at. Do they bother stopping selling popular vehicles if 33% of the US market bans IC engines?
        toomuchtodo 6y ago
        Will have to model specifics and follow up.