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I think batteries will be annihilated by fuel cells in the near future. So in all likelihood the current business of Tesla will be wiped out. Tesla could only s

by Hypx 6y ago

I think batteries will be annihilated by fuel cells in the near future. So in all likelihood the current business of Tesla will be wiped out. Tesla could only survive if it completely reinvents itself.

cowmix 6y ago
Why do you think this?
- Hypx 6y ago
  It's the fundamentally superior technology. It's likely to be much cheaper than batteries in the long run, and I suspect will eventually equal batteries on efficiency too (fuel cells are technically batteries themselves). We can go into elaborate details on this, but that is the gist of it.
  - bryanlarsen 6y ago
    > I suspect will eventually equal batteries on efficiency too (fuel cells are technically batteries themselves). Fuel cell vehicles also use batteries. The fuel cell charges the batteries, and the batteries power electric motors. So it's impossible for a fuel cell vehicle to be more efficient than a battery-electric vehicle. Not to mention the massive losses generating the hydrogen, during electrolysis and compression.
    - Hypx 6y ago
      Not necessarily. They can use capacitors instead. And the battery is only engaged when accelerating or braking. The car runs mostly on the fuel cell in steady state operation. Those are just assumptions. There's no reason why you can't you reduce them to the point where they are non-factors. It's possible they go away completely, for instance if you use thermochemical production of hydrogen or store hydrogen in metal hydrides. As I said previously, you don't need to perfectly match batteries on efficiency. If fuel cells get close to batteries, it's enough for them to succeed. The rest can be made up by a combination of lower upfront costs and light weighting.
bryanlarsen 6y ago
VW had a great illustration showing why fuel cells are inferior to batteries: https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1127660_battery-electric-or-hydrogen-fuel-cell-vw-lays-out-why-one-is-the-winner https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1127660_battery-electri... AFAICT, there is no metric by which a green hydrogen powered fuel cell car is superior to a BEV. It's more expensive to buy, at best is 3X as expensive to fuel, is far more inconvenient to fill up (a grand total of 39 stations in the US), lower range (300 miles for current models), and is far less reliable (hydrogen embrittlement). That's assuming it's powered by green hydrogen (aka, hydrogen created via electrolysis). Grey hydrogen cracked from natural gas is cheaper than green hydrogen, but if you're not going green, why would you get anything other than a gasoline car?
- Hypx 6y ago
  These are backwards looking arguments. I'm talking about a future where: fuel cell cars are far cheaper, hydrogen is approximately as cheap and efficient as electricity, there is a substantial hydrogen infrastructure in place, and range is 400 miles or more (this has already happened). BTW the last statement was always wrong as modern fuel cell vehicles are more reliable than battery powered ones. It will be green hydrogen too. I don't think anyone is seriously proposing grey hydrogen as a fuel.
  - bryanlarsen 6y ago
    > hydrogen is approximately as cheap and efficient as electricity This is physically impossible. Green hydrogen is created from electricity and water and is converted back to electricity and water in a fuel cell. These are both lossy processes.
    - Hypx 6y ago
      No more so than a battery. A fuel cell is in fact a battery of sorts, and it's not out of the question that it approaches the efficiency of a conventional battery. It should also be pointed out that the lower weight of a fuel cell powertrain allows you to use less energy during operation. So even if fuel cells don't fully match the efficiency of conventional batteries, they can still use less energy on a final basis.

by Hypx 6y ago

cowmix 6y ago

Why do you think this?

Hypx 6y ago
It's the fundamentally superior technology. It's likely to be much cheaper than batteries in the long run, and I suspect will eventually equal batteries on efficiency too (fuel cells are technically batteries themselves). We can go into elaborate details on this, but that is the gist of it.
- bryanlarsen 6y ago
  > I suspect will eventually equal batteries on efficiency too (fuel cells are technically batteries themselves). Fuel cell vehicles also use batteries. The fuel cell charges the batteries, and the batteries power electric motors. So it's impossible for a fuel cell vehicle to be more efficient than a battery-electric vehicle. Not to mention the massive losses generating the hydrogen, during electrolysis and compression.
  - Hypx 6y ago
    Not necessarily. They can use capacitors instead. And the battery is only engaged when accelerating or braking. The car runs mostly on the fuel cell in steady state operation. Those are just assumptions. There's no reason why you can't you reduce them to the point where they are non-factors. It's possible they go away completely, for instance if you use thermochemical production of hydrogen or store hydrogen in metal hydrides. As I said previously, you don't need to perfectly match batteries on efficiency. If fuel cells get close to batteries, it's enough for them to succeed. The rest can be made up by a combination of lower upfront costs and light weighting.

bryanlarsen 6y ago

VW had a great illustration showing why fuel cells are inferior to batteries: https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1127660_battery-electric-or-hydrogen-fuel-cell-vw-lays-out-why-one-is-the-winner https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1127660_battery-electri... AFAICT, there is no metric by which a green hydrogen powered fuel cell car is superior to a BEV. It's more expensive to buy, at best is 3X as expensive to fuel, is far more inconvenient to fill up (a grand total of 39 stations in the US), lower range (300 miles for current models), and is far less reliable (hydrogen embrittlement). That's assuming it's powered by green hydrogen (aka, hydrogen created via electrolysis). Grey hydrogen cracked from natural gas is cheaper than green hydrogen, but if you're not going green, why would you get anything other than a gasoline car?

Hypx 6y ago
These are backwards looking arguments. I'm talking about a future where: fuel cell cars are far cheaper, hydrogen is approximately as cheap and efficient as electricity, there is a substantial hydrogen infrastructure in place, and range is 400 miles or more (this has already happened). BTW the last statement was always wrong as modern fuel cell vehicles are more reliable than battery powered ones. It will be green hydrogen too. I don't think anyone is seriously proposing grey hydrogen as a fuel.
- bryanlarsen 6y ago
  > hydrogen is approximately as cheap and efficient as electricity This is physically impossible. Green hydrogen is created from electricity and water and is converted back to electricity and water in a fuel cell. These are both lossy processes.
  - Hypx 6y ago
    No more so than a battery. A fuel cell is in fact a battery of sorts, and it's not out of the question that it approaches the efficiency of a conventional battery. It should also be pointed out that the lower weight of a fuel cell powertrain allows you to use less energy during operation. So even if fuel cells don't fully match the efficiency of conventional batteries, they can still use less energy on a final basis.