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Speaking from Ireland. - Car traffic will be only slightly less than 2019 levels, despite rolling lockdowns all year. - Brexit will start to be noticed on sup

by ploika 6y ago

Speaking from Ireland. - Car traffic will be only slightly less than 2019 levels, despite rolling lockdowns all year. - Brexit will start to be noticed on supermarket shelves. - The built-up stresses of 2020/2021 will turn some relatively minor issue into a genuine political crisis, in a straw-that-broke-the-camel's-back situation. It might bring down the government.

toomuchtodo 6y ago
Do you think Brexit reaching a conclusion could spur reunification between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland (a “United Ireland”)?
- fy20 6y ago
  (Lived in UK and Ireland, and various other EU countries) NI is now effectively separated from the rest of the UK, so will rely on Ireland a lot more for trade. For sure there will be more cooperation between the two countries, but in the last survey only 20% of NI residents favoured a united Ireland. [0] I doubt Brexit has shifted that number too much. I'd more expect NI to become an independent country, but Scotland will be first. In terms of Ireland I think this is good for them, as it'll give them more opportunity to be more independent. At least when I was there (nearly 10 years ago, in Dublin), it felt like 'the UK but slightly different', i.e. very different from the rest of Europe. Online retailers often didn't have an IE store, but most UK retailers would ship to IE for extra shipping. Now it will probably be the other way, IE retailers will ship to NI for a little extra. The combined markets have a population of nearly 7m people, so it's bigger than a lot of European countries. As OP says it might be painful to begin with (for NI and IE) as they adjust to the new position. Ireland drives on the same side of the road as the UK, and uses UK plugs, so cars and consumer goods will most likely become more expensive too. [0] https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/56/Northern_Ireland_Constitutional_Preference.png https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/56/Northern...
  - tonyedgecombe 6y ago
    That's a dubious looking poll with three options on remain and one on re-unification.
  - mkl 6y ago
    Other polls seem to range from 29% [1] to 80% [2]. I think it depends who's asked! [1] https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-nireland-poll/poll-shows-northern-ireland-majority-against-united-ireland-idUKKBN20C0WF https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-nireland-poll/poll... [2] https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/election-2020-we-want-united-ireland-say-four-in-five-voters-bcsbnkjld https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/election-2020-we-want-uni...
    - notahacker 6y ago
      Polls [1] and [2] are polls of the electorate on different sides of the border. Both need to approve for unification to happen. In Northern Ireland identification primarily with the UK or with Ireland is a defining identity issue for Protestant and Catholic communities respectively. The 29% figure for near term unification can still rise but campaigners for a United Ireland there face two problems: firstly that many in their own community broadly sympathetic to the idea of a United Ireland are concerned that changing the status quo now would lead to a return to the sectarian violence of a generation ago, and secondly that the Protestant community is slightly larger and also less flexible on national identity.
- ploika 6y ago
  Maybe "spur" might be putting it a bit strong, but I do think it will make it more likely in subtle, marginal ways. It will be an extra push factor in an already complicated dynamic. In any case, I think a referendum on unity is still decades rather than years away.
- throwaway2245 6y ago
  Yes - If Northern Ireland is following the Republic of Ireland/EU commercial regulatory framework, and not the rest of the UK's as that quickly diverges, there will be a new pragmatic argument for Northern Ireland to leave the UK. I'd give it at least 5 years, though.
vjuvvadi123 6y ago
It is weird how no one wants to talk about the over-inflated euro and its potential impact on Ireland.

by ploika 6y ago

toomuchtodo 6y ago

Do you think Brexit reaching a conclusion could spur reunification between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland (a “United Ireland”)?

fy20 6y ago
(Lived in UK and Ireland, and various other EU countries) NI is now effectively separated from the rest of the UK, so will rely on Ireland a lot more for trade. For sure there will be more cooperation between the two countries, but in the last survey only 20% of NI residents favoured a united Ireland. [0] I doubt Brexit has shifted that number too much. I'd more expect NI to become an independent country, but Scotland will be first. In terms of Ireland I think this is good for them, as it'll give them more opportunity to be more independent. At least when I was there (nearly 10 years ago, in Dublin), it felt like 'the UK but slightly different', i.e. very different from the rest of Europe. Online retailers often didn't have an IE store, but most UK retailers would ship to IE for extra shipping. Now it will probably be the other way, IE retailers will ship to NI for a little extra. The combined markets have a population of nearly 7m people, so it's bigger than a lot of European countries. As OP says it might be painful to begin with (for NI and IE) as they adjust to the new position. Ireland drives on the same side of the road as the UK, and uses UK plugs, so cars and consumer goods will most likely become more expensive too. [0] https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/56/Northern_Ireland_Constitutional_Preference.png https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/56/Northern...
- tonyedgecombe 6y ago
  That's a dubious looking poll with three options on remain and one on re-unification.
- mkl 6y ago
  Other polls seem to range from 29% [1] to 80% [2]. I think it depends who's asked! [1] https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-nireland-poll/poll-shows-northern-ireland-majority-against-united-ireland-idUKKBN20C0WF https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-nireland-poll/poll... [2] https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/election-2020-we-want-united-ireland-say-four-in-five-voters-bcsbnkjld https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/election-2020-we-want-uni...
  - notahacker 6y ago
    Polls [1] and [2] are polls of the electorate on different sides of the border. Both need to approve for unification to happen. In Northern Ireland identification primarily with the UK or with Ireland is a defining identity issue for Protestant and Catholic communities respectively. The 29% figure for near term unification can still rise but campaigners for a United Ireland there face two problems: firstly that many in their own community broadly sympathetic to the idea of a United Ireland are concerned that changing the status quo now would lead to a return to the sectarian violence of a generation ago, and secondly that the Protestant community is slightly larger and also less flexible on national identity.
ploika 6y ago
Maybe "spur" might be putting it a bit strong, but I do think it will make it more likely in subtle, marginal ways. It will be an extra push factor in an already complicated dynamic. In any case, I think a referendum on unity is still decades rather than years away.
throwaway2245 6y ago
Yes - If Northern Ireland is following the Republic of Ireland/EU commercial regulatory framework, and not the rest of the UK's as that quickly diverges, there will be a new pragmatic argument for Northern Ireland to leave the UK. I'd give it at least 5 years, though.

vjuvvadi123 6y ago

It is weird how no one wants to talk about the over-inflated euro and its potential impact on Ireland.