4 ms·

This is a very tricky situation. Two things come to mind. 1. Turkey wants a fight. I keep up on reading the western commentary and analysis about the region (N

This is a very tricky situation. Two things come to mind. 1. Turkey wants a fight. I keep up on reading the western commentary and analysis about the region (Not the mainstream crap), and it's apparent to me that deeply-entrenched forces in Turkey want a fight. Our strategy so far is to do the best we can to ignore/placate them. I'm not sure how long that continues to work. 2. From time-to-time, we talk on HN about the internet becoming more and more walled off, with commercial ventures preventing competition and nationalistic devices like the Great Firewall of China preventing movement of information. There's not going to be one dramatic moment when we wake up and the net is gone. It's probably mostly gone now, and every day a bit more slips away unnoticed. We talk about and react to stories like this, but there are plenty of similar actions that nobody responds to. It's like Google customer support: the only way to make anything at all happen is to make a big stink, and in the long-run even doing that doesn't matter much to the average net user. I am deeply unhappy and concerned about Turkey's future. I wish there was something I could to to help, but any response at all from the west will be used as political fodder. They're not in a good spot right now.

psKama 6y ago
I don't believe HN is the right place to engage in political discussions but I need to clarify couple of points. > Turkey wants a fight. You need to make clear references about what and who you refer to when you say "Turkey". Even with a totally oppressed media and everything else, Erdogan's support in Turkey is in the band of 30-40%. Majority of Turkish citizens are not happy with him. Western world keeps doing the some mistake (if not on purpose) as they do with Russia, skipping that difference when bringing up all the negativity about him. As Putin, this just helps him solidifying his base, by using this to create a common enemy outside of Turkey. With that said, I don't believe even Erdogan himself wants to have any fight with anyone outside of Turkey but just trying to protect country's interest internationally. That's why although his support is in a band of 30-40%, a solid 85% of Turkish people are supporting his international policies.
- tehwebguy 6y ago
  Yes, thank you. I am not one to mince words but think people make a huge mistake when they talk about what ${country} wants instead of ${country.leader} or ${party}
  - wonnage 6y ago
    Yeah, westerners freely disassociate themselves from their leaders. But they abruptly lose this ability as soon as some other country is involved.
- JumpCrisscross 6y ago
  There is a deeply-religious Islamist section of the Turkish elite, with influence in Anatolia, who helped bring Erdogan to power. Integration with the West promotes secular, urban Istanbul interests relative to them. An East-West engagement, with Turkey in the East, boosts their power.
  - notsureaboutpg 6y ago
    It's interesting because actually most people would consider the secular urbanites from Istanbul to be the elite. Deeply religious and Islamist also describes a large portion of rural Turkey. The US has a similar thing. Most secular urbanites are seen as the elite but in the halls of power you find a lot more who push non-elite views (but aren't they also elites, being politicians and all?)
- notsureaboutpg 6y ago
  Support of 30-40% is super high. I don't think most democratically elected leaders have that kind of support among the populace. I know you're just winging these numbers, but just thought I'd chime in.
- DanielBMarkham 6y ago
  I completely agree with you. Thank you for that additional detail. I have no politics in this matter, as I have no list of desired winners or losers and no desired end-state (aside from just being generally unhappy with the way things are in Turkey currently). I don't know how I could be less political. It's a very complex situation, as you've pointed out. My only intent was to provide a shorthand evaluation of the area for others to dive down on if they desired. There is no one "Turkey", which is why I used the broad term. Of course it's much more nuanced. Thanks for the help.
AnimalMuppet 6y ago
Clarify, please. What kind of a fight, and with whom? A political fight, or a real shooting fight? With internal enemies, the west, or Syria (or somebody else)?

psKama 6y ago

I don't believe HN is the right place to engage in political discussions but I need to clarify couple of points. > Turkey wants a fight. You need to make clear references about what and who you refer to when you say "Turkey". Even with a totally oppressed media and everything else, Erdogan's support in Turkey is in the band of 30-40%. Majority of Turkish citizens are not happy with him. Western world keeps doing the some mistake (if not on purpose) as they do with Russia, skipping that difference when bringing up all the negativity about him. As Putin, this just helps him solidifying his base, by using this to create a common enemy outside of Turkey. With that said, I don't believe even Erdogan himself wants to have any fight with anyone outside of Turkey but just trying to protect country's interest internationally. That's why although his support is in a band of 30-40%, a solid 85% of Turkish people are supporting his international policies.

tehwebguy 6y ago
Yes, thank you. I am not one to mince words but think people make a huge mistake when they talk about what ${country} wants instead of ${country.leader} or ${party}
- wonnage 6y ago
  Yeah, westerners freely disassociate themselves from their leaders. But they abruptly lose this ability as soon as some other country is involved.
JumpCrisscross 6y ago
There is a deeply-religious Islamist section of the Turkish elite, with influence in Anatolia, who helped bring Erdogan to power. Integration with the West promotes secular, urban Istanbul interests relative to them. An East-West engagement, with Turkey in the East, boosts their power.
- notsureaboutpg 6y ago
  It's interesting because actually most people would consider the secular urbanites from Istanbul to be the elite. Deeply religious and Islamist also describes a large portion of rural Turkey. The US has a similar thing. Most secular urbanites are seen as the elite but in the halls of power you find a lot more who push non-elite views (but aren't they also elites, being politicians and all?)
notsureaboutpg 6y ago
Support of 30-40% is super high. I don't think most democratically elected leaders have that kind of support among the populace. I know you're just winging these numbers, but just thought I'd chime in.
DanielBMarkham 6y ago
I completely agree with you. Thank you for that additional detail. I have no politics in this matter, as I have no list of desired winners or losers and no desired end-state (aside from just being generally unhappy with the way things are in Turkey currently). I don't know how I could be less political. It's a very complex situation, as you've pointed out. My only intent was to provide a shorthand evaluation of the area for others to dive down on if they desired. There is no one "Turkey", which is why I used the broad term. Of course it's much more nuanced. Thanks for the help.

AnimalMuppet 6y ago

Clarify, please. What kind of a fight, and with whom? A political fight, or a real shooting fight? With internal enemies, the west, or Syria (or somebody else)?