> I don't think the problem is a lack of tools. It's more fundamental. It's very hard for us to admit that something could just be a string of pure luck, like

> I don't think the problem is a lack of tools. It's more fundamental. It's very hard for us to admit that something could just be a string of pure luck, like the brief moment where Flash, Newgrounds, and fighting stickmen were at the cultural epicenter. In fact, we as engineers seem biased in the complete opposite direction when it comes to understanding social phenomena. Technical advantages and disadvantages do very little to explain the world and why people do things and why things catch on. Whether or not HTML5 replicates "what mattered" about Flash does nothing to understand how Flash fell out of cultural hegemony because it's not what mattered about Flash. HTML5 can't do anything to roll back the clock and recreate the perfect storm responsible Flash culture. I think Flash, like Javascript and Wordpress, was simply at the right place at the right time to take advantage of unique characteristics of the early internet that are very hard to quantify with confidence much less replicate or predict.