I think what greedo is saying is that since the stuff would happen anyway, it shouldn't be attributed to the lockdown, but should be attributed to COVID. That

I think what greedo is saying is that since the stuff would happen anyway, it shouldn't be attributed to the lockdown, but should be attributed to COVID. That is, instead of having 2 categories: (1) effects of COVID and (2) effects of lockdown, with economic downturn put in effects of lockdown, there should be 3 categories: (1) direct effects of COVID, (2) indirect effects of COVID, and (3) effects of lockdown, with economic downturn put in indirect effects of COVID (or at least largely there).