3 ms·
I don’t mean to diminish the gravity of such numbers but don’t projections like this ignore asymptomatic cases? How many of those projected to die here have alr
by crateandarrow 6y ago
I don’t mean to diminish the gravity of such numbers but don’t projections like this ignore asymptomatic cases? How many of those projected to die here have already contacted it but are immune for whatever reason and never got tested? The death rates across age ranges can only account for confirmed deaths and cases in that range, no? Without testing every single person in an age range we can’t make accurate projections because we can’t know the percentage of “immune” people, no?
- thomasz 6y agoYes, they do. There is obviously some guesswork involved, but after several seroprevalence studies, these arguments can be laid to rest. There is no giant iceberg of undetected cases, we’re still in the beginning of the pandemic, and IFR is frighteningly high. Especially in older populations.
- saberdancer 6y agoThey don't ignore asymptomatic cases. IFR is calculated using symptomatic and asymptomatic cases. It's total % of people that die if they get infected, symptomatic or not. Studies are showing Covid-19 has IFR of 0.5-1% in western world (due to age). This means if 100% of England got infected, 0.5 to 1% would die. This is not counting that if hospitals got overwhelmed, IFR would increase.
- iso1631 6y agoThe figures I used were median figure in the range, with modern intervention techniques (theraputic drugs etc) The range (95%ile I think) for 45-65 year old was 0.24% - 0.41%, median 0.32%. The full details are on the link.