8 ms·

These studies all assume that there wouldn't be a recession without a lockdown. This is fallacious. Even without a lockdown, consumers are going to stop going t

by greedo 6y ago

These studies all assume that there wouldn't be a recession without a lockdown. This is fallacious. Even without a lockdown, consumers are going to stop going to large events, restaurants, movies etc when they see that it causes death...

stouset 6y ago
You might have missed reading the entire comment you replied to. The authors of the study explicitly stated that while the effects of the lockdown exceed the effects of COVID, the net effects of no lockdown would be worse.
- Thorrez 6y ago
  I think what greedo is saying is that since the stuff would happen anyway, it shouldn't be attributed to the lockdown, but should be attributed to COVID. That is, instead of having 2 categories: (1) effects of COVID and (2) effects of lockdown, with economic downturn put in effects of lockdown, there should be 3 categories: (1) direct effects of COVID, (2) indirect effects of COVID, and (3) effects of lockdown, with economic downturn put in indirect effects of COVID (or at least largely there).
  - jozvolskyef 6y ago
    The paper is available here if anyone's interested: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/907616/s0650-direct-indirect-impacts-covid-19-excess-deaths-morbidity-sage-48.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...
Mediterraneo10 6y ago
Every time lockdown has been lifted in the country I live in, the restaurants and pubs have quickly gone back to full capacity even as deaths continue and the state only lessened restrictions to improve consumption. The general public has a vague awareness that the victims of COVID are overwhelmingly people aged 75+ with multiple comorbidities. Deaths of younger people are statistical outliers, and claims of "long COVID" are mainly uniformed self-diagnosis by people on the internet, the same people who before COVID were claiming to have "chronic Lyme disease". Furthermore, that elderly demographic that represents the real risk group, doesn't contribute to the economy much anyway. (In Russia and other economies based on resource extraction, for example, thinktanks have referred to such as "superfluous population").
leetcrew 6y ago
to varying extents. I still see restaurants maxing out their 25% capacity for indoor dining every friday/saturday night.

by greedo 6y ago

stouset 6y ago

You might have missed reading the entire comment you replied to. The authors of the study explicitly stated that while the effects of the lockdown exceed the effects of COVID, the net effects of no lockdown would be worse.

Thorrez 6y ago
I think what greedo is saying is that since the stuff would happen anyway, it shouldn't be attributed to the lockdown, but should be attributed to COVID. That is, instead of having 2 categories: (1) effects of COVID and (2) effects of lockdown, with economic downturn put in effects of lockdown, there should be 3 categories: (1) direct effects of COVID, (2) indirect effects of COVID, and (3) effects of lockdown, with economic downturn put in indirect effects of COVID (or at least largely there).
- jozvolskyef 6y ago
  The paper is available here if anyone's interested: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/907616/s0650-direct-indirect-impacts-covid-19-excess-deaths-morbidity-sage-48.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...

Mediterraneo10 6y ago

Every time lockdown has been lifted in the country I live in, the restaurants and pubs have quickly gone back to full capacity even as deaths continue and the state only lessened restrictions to improve consumption. The general public has a vague awareness that the victims of COVID are overwhelmingly people aged 75+ with multiple comorbidities. Deaths of younger people are statistical outliers, and claims of "long COVID" are mainly uniformed self-diagnosis by people on the internet, the same people who before COVID were claiming to have "chronic Lyme disease". Furthermore, that elderly demographic that represents the real risk group, doesn't contribute to the economy much anyway. (In Russia and other economies based on resource extraction, for example, thinktanks have referred to such as "superfluous population").

leetcrew 6y ago

to varying extents. I still see restaurants maxing out their 25% capacity for indoor dining every friday/saturday night.