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The official position is that the start of this pandemic was in 'Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market' in Wuhan. [0] So are you proposing that a pangolin from Lanca

The official position is that the start of this pandemic was in 'Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market' in Wuhan. [0] So are you proposing that a pangolin from Lancang was transported more than 2000km to a seafood wetmarket in Wuhan? At face value, this sounds like a very unlikely scenario for a zoonotic event/origin. [0] https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/2020/04/coronavirus-linked-to-chinese-wet-markets/ https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/2020/04/coronavir...

Widdershin 6y ago
Maybe there’s a distinction to be had between patient zero and the first link in the chain we can reliably pinpoint.
incrudible 6y ago
As far as I'm aware, there is no "official" Chinese position on where and how the virus originated. Assuming a zoonotic origin in China, it's much more likely that an infected individual from rural Southern China happened to travel to Wuhan and that the seafood market just happened to be the kind of location where such a virus would spread. There is some evidence that there is a degree of immunity to COVID-19 in areas that had SARS-outbreaks. It would therefore be plausible that an initial COVID-19 outbreak in Southern China, the epicenter of SARS1, could have gone unnoticed. The actual animals sold at the market would then be irrelevant, but there's a narrative that "animal cruelty and human encroachment are to blame for COVID" that is being pushed here.
- dathinab 6y ago
  Given that the Covid 19 outbreak in Italy (and I think France too but I'm not sure) went unnoticed(1) for well over a month this is quite likely... (1): I probably should use "unidentified", it was noticed that there was a unusual spike in pneumonia related death. It was just not linked to a "new" virus.
bamboleo 6y ago
Given that apparently the virus was outside China in early December already, is it possible that Wuhan was simply the first fast-spreading location rather than the place where the transmission happened? If the virus was in Milan’s sewers in December, it feels that it might as swell have started spreading there first. Likewise, Italy contained the virus from May to September, then it exploded again. Nothing particularly happened in September, yet by chance it spiked. Just speculating though, I’d like to hear others’ opinion on this thought.
- SlipperySlope 6y ago
  China had direct flights between Wuhan and Italy with many Chinese working in Italy.
- DoingIsLearning 6y ago
  Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. There is no direct air flight from Italy to Wuhan without going through Amsterdam Schipol or Beijing. There are no Shipping ports in inland Wuhan. Do you truly believe it is a realistic scenario that a virus this infectious could traverse from northern Italy to Wuhan, Hubei, without creating multiple infection hotspots along the way? If I am to put on my tinfoil hat this is exactly the sort of disinformation I would expect from CCP propaganda in order to fight US politician memes of the "China Virus".
  - dathinab 6y ago
    > Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Assuming that Wuhan is the Orginal point of infection and there not being any previous infections spreading it to some parts of china including (or mainly) Wuhan is the actual extraordinary claim. > There is no direct ... Doesn't matter people travel. My sister had during that time a roommate from China from a large city without any direct flights or port or similar if that would have been Wuhan here bringing the virus to Germany before any travel restrictions started would have been well in the area of possibitly (and no joke as far as I remember it actually was Wuhan but I'm not fully sure about and no Virus was transmitted in this case it's just an example that the argument why virus transmittance is unlikely is IMHO not making much sense) EDIT: > without creating multiple infection hotspots along the way? 1. There where other hotspots then Wuhan. 2. Detection and reporting of SARS-Cov-2 was initially not very responsive. 3. Look at how SARS-Cov-1 spread. 4. You just need a exchange student from Wuhan to Italy.
sradman 6y ago
From How China’s ‘Bat Woman’ Hunted Down Viruses from SARS to the New Coronavirus [1]: > Shi’s team used the antibody test to narrow down the list of locations and bat species to pursue in the quest for genomic clues. After roaming mountainous terrain in most of China’s dozens of provinces, the researchers turned their attention to one spot: Shitou Cave, on the outskirts of Kunming, the capital of Yunnan, where they conducted intense sampling during different seasons over five consecutive years. Distance from Kumming to Wuhan: 1,566 km [2]. Distance from Kumming to Foshan (SARS-1): 1,315 km [3]. I am saying that horseshoe bats, pangolins, palm civets, and humans overlap in Yunnan province and along the Langcang/Mekong. This is the most likely ground zero for a natural recombination event. When and how the first SARS-CoV-2 virus made its way to Wuhan is a separate question; I'd think a human on a train is the most likely vector. [1] https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-woman-hunted-down-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-wo... [2] https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Wuhan,+Hubei,+China/Kunming,+Yunnan,+China/@27.7029188,104.0739748,6z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m14!4m13!1m5!1m1!1s0x342eaef8dd85f26f:0x39c2c9ac6c582210!2m2!1d114.305539!2d30.592849!1m5!1m1!1s0x36d083c31227d3cb:0xccb1f3a4984f0a36!2m2!1d102.832891!2d24.880095!3e0 https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Wuhan,+Hubei,+China/Kunming,... [3] https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Foshan,+Guangdong+Province,+China/Kunming,+Yunnan,+China/@23.8962241,103.4878978,6z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m14!4m13!1m5!1m1!1s0x340259585079a5b7:0x4061c8daecfded19!2m2!1d113.121435!2d23.021478!1m5!1m1!1s0x36d083c31227d3cb:0xccb1f3a4984f0a36!2m2!1d102.832891!2d24.880095!3e0 https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Foshan,+Guangdong+Province,+...
- tiahura 6y ago
  Is there a good reason to not nuke this cave?
lamontcg 6y ago
Straight from the wikipedia entry on the Huanan market: "In May 2020, George Gao, the director of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said animal samples collected from the seafood market had tested negative for the virus, indicating that the market was the site of an early superspreading event, but it was not the site of the initial outbreak.[43]" https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-rules-out-animal-market-and-lab-as-coronavirus-origin-11590517508 https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-rules-out-animal-market-a... I can't find references now but the idea that the virus started in Wuhan roughly early November and that the Huanan market was just a notable superspreading event which brought attention to the virus is pretty accepted in scientific circles. The virus was too well adpated to humans initially and has not evolved significantly since its first detection then (D614G and the new variants aside). The animals that carried the virus in the Huanan market were probably just an infected human, and not particularly close to the origin case. It was just detected there because it was a superspreading event that happened in the backyard of the nearby lab. The most plausible explanation I've heard as an origin is that it jumped from bat to human in the process of bat guano farming. This would have obviously happened in the rural area outside of Wuhan, but the virus found its way through spreading events into the higher density city, where it was eventually detected. Cryptic spread would have been happening for at least a month or more as it adapted to humans. The furin cleavage site may also be the result of a recombination event between two coronaviruses (coronaviruses don't just mutation and reassortment like influenza, they also recombine and dual infection with two coronaviruses in an animal or human can shuffle parts of genes): https://jvi.asm.org/content/84/7/3134?ijkey=b8e66cb01995eeb494ce222da7b25d369dac59c8&keytype2=tf_ipsecsha https://jvi.asm.org/content/84/7/3134?ijkey=b8e66cb01995eeb4... So if you just assume that trajectory from bat guano farming to city center, along with a missing link to provide the furin cleavage site, then the title articles analysis really falls apart. Not surprising that the bats are far away, the furin cleavage site may be not surprising if we manage to find a similar virus in nature, and mostly what is left is that it wasn't detected until it was right on the doorstep of the virology lab (where the virus found the people who were likely to set off the alarm about it) and the rest some mild cover-your-ass at the lab would be entirely expected. But that means that there's some bats with answers somewhere outside of Wuhan but China has been stalling efforts to go find them.
dathinab 6y ago
Going from: The often believed but not proven >"start of this pandemic was in 'Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market' in Wuhan." To: > It was produced in a Lab. Is IMHO a fully unreasonable jump of conclusions. Given that analysis in the recent year showed that the virus spread much earlier and initially undetected to the EU it is quite feasible that the epidemic in China started earlier and potential in different places then Wuhan. Also one big point ignored is both pangolin and bat are captured (sometimes alive) and kept/transported potentially close together. So even if there is a natural place where they would interact there are "unnatural" places created by the nature of the (not just seafood) marked in Wuhan...
- mytailorisrich 6y ago
  I believe that the preferred theory at the moment is that MERS originated in bats and was transmitted to camels before jumping to humans. Bats can easily come in close contacts with people and cattle even when they are not actively hunted. You also make a good point that we're discovering very early cases in the EU and US, which show that this all started earlier than the explosion in Wuhan. I seem to recall reading articles suggesting that the jump to humans may have occurred more than a year before Wuhan.

Widdershin 6y ago

Maybe there’s a distinction to be had between patient zero and the first link in the chain we can reliably pinpoint.

incrudible 6y ago

As far as I'm aware, there is no "official" Chinese position on where and how the virus originated. Assuming a zoonotic origin in China, it's much more likely that an infected individual from rural Southern China happened to travel to Wuhan and that the seafood market just happened to be the kind of location where such a virus would spread. There is some evidence that there is a degree of immunity to COVID-19 in areas that had SARS-outbreaks. It would therefore be plausible that an initial COVID-19 outbreak in Southern China, the epicenter of SARS1, could have gone unnoticed. The actual animals sold at the market would then be irrelevant, but there's a narrative that "animal cruelty and human encroachment are to blame for COVID" that is being pushed here.

dathinab 6y ago
Given that the Covid 19 outbreak in Italy (and I think France too but I'm not sure) went unnoticed(1) for well over a month this is quite likely... (1): I probably should use "unidentified", it was noticed that there was a unusual spike in pneumonia related death. It was just not linked to a "new" virus.

bamboleo 6y ago

Given that apparently the virus was outside China in early December already, is it possible that Wuhan was simply the first fast-spreading location rather than the place where the transmission happened? If the virus was in Milan’s sewers in December, it feels that it might as swell have started spreading there first. Likewise, Italy contained the virus from May to September, then it exploded again. Nothing particularly happened in September, yet by chance it spiked. Just speculating though, I’d like to hear others’ opinion on this thought.

SlipperySlope 6y ago
China had direct flights between Wuhan and Italy with many Chinese working in Italy.
DoingIsLearning 6y ago
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. There is no direct air flight from Italy to Wuhan without going through Amsterdam Schipol or Beijing. There are no Shipping ports in inland Wuhan. Do you truly believe it is a realistic scenario that a virus this infectious could traverse from northern Italy to Wuhan, Hubei, without creating multiple infection hotspots along the way? If I am to put on my tinfoil hat this is exactly the sort of disinformation I would expect from CCP propaganda in order to fight US politician memes of the "China Virus".
- dathinab 6y ago
  > Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Assuming that Wuhan is the Orginal point of infection and there not being any previous infections spreading it to some parts of china including (or mainly) Wuhan is the actual extraordinary claim. > There is no direct ... Doesn't matter people travel. My sister had during that time a roommate from China from a large city without any direct flights or port or similar if that would have been Wuhan here bringing the virus to Germany before any travel restrictions started would have been well in the area of possibitly (and no joke as far as I remember it actually was Wuhan but I'm not fully sure about and no Virus was transmitted in this case it's just an example that the argument why virus transmittance is unlikely is IMHO not making much sense) EDIT: > without creating multiple infection hotspots along the way? 1. There where other hotspots then Wuhan. 2. Detection and reporting of SARS-Cov-2 was initially not very responsive. 3. Look at how SARS-Cov-1 spread. 4. You just need a exchange student from Wuhan to Italy.

sradman 6y ago

From How China’s ‘Bat Woman’ Hunted Down Viruses from SARS to the New Coronavirus [1]: > Shi’s team used the antibody test to narrow down the list of locations and bat species to pursue in the quest for genomic clues. After roaming mountainous terrain in most of China’s dozens of provinces, the researchers turned their attention to one spot: Shitou Cave, on the outskirts of Kunming, the capital of Yunnan, where they conducted intense sampling during different seasons over five consecutive years. Distance from Kumming to Wuhan: 1,566 km [2]. Distance from Kumming to Foshan (SARS-1): 1,315 km [3]. I am saying that horseshoe bats, pangolins, palm civets, and humans overlap in Yunnan province and along the Langcang/Mekong. This is the most likely ground zero for a natural recombination event. When and how the first SARS-CoV-2 virus made its way to Wuhan is a separate question; I'd think a human on a train is the most likely vector. [1] https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-woman-hunted-down-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-wo... [2] https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Wuhan,+Hubei,+China/Kunming,+Yunnan,+China/@27.7029188,104.0739748,6z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m14!4m13!1m5!1m1!1s0x342eaef8dd85f26f:0x39c2c9ac6c582210!2m2!1d114.305539!2d30.592849!1m5!1m1!1s0x36d083c31227d3cb:0xccb1f3a4984f0a36!2m2!1d102.832891!2d24.880095!3e0 https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Wuhan,+Hubei,+China/Kunming,... [3] https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Foshan,+Guangdong+Province,+China/Kunming,+Yunnan,+China/@23.8962241,103.4878978,6z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m14!4m13!1m5!1m1!1s0x340259585079a5b7:0x4061c8daecfded19!2m2!1d113.121435!2d23.021478!1m5!1m1!1s0x36d083c31227d3cb:0xccb1f3a4984f0a36!2m2!1d102.832891!2d24.880095!3e0 https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Foshan,+Guangdong+Province,+...

tiahura 6y ago
Is there a good reason to not nuke this cave?

lamontcg 6y ago

Straight from the wikipedia entry on the Huanan market: "In May 2020, George Gao, the director of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said animal samples collected from the seafood market had tested negative for the virus, indicating that the market was the site of an early superspreading event, but it was not the site of the initial outbreak.[43]" https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-rules-out-animal-market-and-lab-as-coronavirus-origin-11590517508 https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-rules-out-animal-market-a... I can't find references now but the idea that the virus started in Wuhan roughly early November and that the Huanan market was just a notable superspreading event which brought attention to the virus is pretty accepted in scientific circles. The virus was too well adpated to humans initially and has not evolved significantly since its first detection then (D614G and the new variants aside). The animals that carried the virus in the Huanan market were probably just an infected human, and not particularly close to the origin case. It was just detected there because it was a superspreading event that happened in the backyard of the nearby lab. The most plausible explanation I've heard as an origin is that it jumped from bat to human in the process of bat guano farming. This would have obviously happened in the rural area outside of Wuhan, but the virus found its way through spreading events into the higher density city, where it was eventually detected. Cryptic spread would have been happening for at least a month or more as it adapted to humans. The furin cleavage site may also be the result of a recombination event between two coronaviruses (coronaviruses don't just mutation and reassortment like influenza, they also recombine and dual infection with two coronaviruses in an animal or human can shuffle parts of genes): https://jvi.asm.org/content/84/7/3134?ijkey=b8e66cb01995eeb494ce222da7b25d369dac59c8&keytype2=tf_ipsecsha https://jvi.asm.org/content/84/7/3134?ijkey=b8e66cb01995eeb4... So if you just assume that trajectory from bat guano farming to city center, along with a missing link to provide the furin cleavage site, then the title articles analysis really falls apart. Not surprising that the bats are far away, the furin cleavage site may be not surprising if we manage to find a similar virus in nature, and mostly what is left is that it wasn't detected until it was right on the doorstep of the virology lab (where the virus found the people who were likely to set off the alarm about it) and the rest some mild cover-your-ass at the lab would be entirely expected. But that means that there's some bats with answers somewhere outside of Wuhan but China has been stalling efforts to go find them.

dathinab 6y ago

Going from: The often believed but not proven >"start of this pandemic was in 'Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market' in Wuhan." To: > It was produced in a Lab. Is IMHO a fully unreasonable jump of conclusions. Given that analysis in the recent year showed that the virus spread much earlier and initially undetected to the EU it is quite feasible that the epidemic in China started earlier and potential in different places then Wuhan. Also one big point ignored is both pangolin and bat are captured (sometimes alive) and kept/transported potentially close together. So even if there is a natural place where they would interact there are "unnatural" places created by the nature of the (not just seafood) marked in Wuhan...

mytailorisrich 6y ago
I believe that the preferred theory at the moment is that MERS originated in bats and was transmitted to camels before jumping to humans. Bats can easily come in close contacts with people and cattle even when they are not actively hunted. You also make a good point that we're discovering very early cases in the EU and US, which show that this all started earlier than the explosion in Wuhan. I seem to recall reading articles suggesting that the jump to humans may have occurred more than a year before Wuhan.