4 ms·

I am not spreading "misinformation." That term is the new slander. I am referring to initial infections, not pretending that tourism has been going full swing s

I am not spreading "misinformation." That term is the new slander. I am referring to initial infections, not pretending that tourism has been going full swing since March. You cannot compare New Zealand to New York City. I don't even think you can compare Seoul — and I accounted for the difference in interventions, regarding Seoul. But you conveniently leave that out. As for your "everyone likes to quote," I in fact said: "you'll note that death estimates in the United States were from 200 thousand (if we followed their recommendations) to 2.2 million (if we did nothing)." Are you pretending now that I am misrepresenting the paper? You are simply repeating what I've written, and pretending to be contributing something new to the conversation.

jeremysalwen 6y ago
If you are referring to the initial infections then you are just as misleading. Again, we don't need to speculate about how much the coronavirus was initially spread to different cities based on their tourist populations, we can just look at the facts of how much initial spread there was to each location/ On February 24th, there were 14 cases diagnosed in the United States, and 39 people who were infected and repatriated to the United States[1]. In comparison, at the same time there were 564 cases in South Korea[2]. The difference between 350k deaths (so far) and 200k deaths (total) is a lot, and is perfectly consistent with the paper's findings that if you perform some interventions but not all of them, hundreds of thousands of people will die unnecessarily. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6908e1.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6908e1.htm [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_South_Korea#20_January_%E2%80%93_17_February https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_South_Kor...

jeremysalwen 6y ago

If you are referring to the initial infections then you are just as misleading. Again, we don't need to speculate about how much the coronavirus was initially spread to different cities based on their tourist populations, we can just look at the facts of how much initial spread there was to each location/ On February 24th, there were 14 cases diagnosed in the United States, and 39 people who were infected and repatriated to the United States[1]. In comparison, at the same time there were 564 cases in South Korea[2]. The difference between 350k deaths (so far) and 200k deaths (total) is a lot, and is perfectly consistent with the paper's findings that if you perform some interventions but not all of them, hundreds of thousands of people will die unnecessarily. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6908e1.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6908e1.htm [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_South_Korea#20_January_%E2%80%93_17_February https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_South_Kor...