3 ms·

Yes the effects may last a long time, much of the effects should be mittigated by government though (suicide is often because of financial issues - something th

Yes the effects may last a long time, much of the effects should be mittigated by government though (suicide is often because of financial issues - something that governments can fix by issuing a new-deal style work program post vaccination to reboot the economy) However if Covid ran wild and infected 70% of the UK, and assuming no healthcare collapse, based on medium IFR figures from https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/ https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/ There would be 38,413 deaths for those age 45-64 and 3,037 deaths for those age 25-44 In addition to the 100k 65-74 year olds, and the 350k 75+ Even if you felt those were acceptable figures, how would you deal with healthcare collapse? Decide to withhold hospital treatment from over 65s?

abduhl 6y ago
A government known for its austerity measures is going to mitigate its citizens' financial issues? I find that hard to believe. I'm not going to engage with someone over the internet about the weighing of people's quality of life years or which side of the fence I come down on there. My post was merely pointing out that extrapolating a suicide rate for 2Q 2020 to the total suicide death number was in error.
- avianlyric 6y ago
  > A government known for its austerity measures is going to mitigate its citizens' financial issues? At least it’s possible. Last I checked death was impossible to mitigate.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
crateandarrow 6y ago
I don’t mean to diminish the gravity of such numbers but don’t projections like this ignore asymptomatic cases? How many of those projected to die here have already contacted it but are immune for whatever reason and never got tested? The death rates across age ranges can only account for confirmed deaths and cases in that range, no? Without testing every single person in an age range we can’t make accurate projections because we can’t know the percentage of “immune” people, no?
- thomasz 6y ago
  Yes, they do. There is obviously some guesswork involved, but after several seroprevalence studies, these arguments can be laid to rest. There is no giant iceberg of undetected cases, we’re still in the beginning of the pandemic, and IFR is frighteningly high. Especially in older populations.
- saberdancer 6y ago
  They don't ignore asymptomatic cases. IFR is calculated using symptomatic and asymptomatic cases. It's total % of people that die if they get infected, symptomatic or not. Studies are showing Covid-19 has IFR of 0.5-1% in western world (due to age). This means if 100% of England got infected, 0.5 to 1% would die. This is not counting that if hospitals got overwhelmed, IFR would increase.
- iso1631 6y ago
  The figures I used were median figure in the range, with modern intervention techniques (theraputic drugs etc) The range (95%ile I think) for 45-65 year old was 0.24% - 0.41%, median 0.32%. The full details are on the link.

abduhl 6y ago

A government known for its austerity measures is going to mitigate its citizens' financial issues? I find that hard to believe. I'm not going to engage with someone over the internet about the weighing of people's quality of life years or which side of the fence I come down on there. My post was merely pointing out that extrapolating a suicide rate for 2Q 2020 to the total suicide death number was in error.

avianlyric 6y ago
> A government known for its austerity measures is going to mitigate its citizens' financial issues? At least it’s possible. Last I checked death was impossible to mitigate.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]

crateandarrow 6y ago

I don’t mean to diminish the gravity of such numbers but don’t projections like this ignore asymptomatic cases? How many of those projected to die here have already contacted it but are immune for whatever reason and never got tested? The death rates across age ranges can only account for confirmed deaths and cases in that range, no? Without testing every single person in an age range we can’t make accurate projections because we can’t know the percentage of “immune” people, no?

thomasz 6y ago
Yes, they do. There is obviously some guesswork involved, but after several seroprevalence studies, these arguments can be laid to rest. There is no giant iceberg of undetected cases, we’re still in the beginning of the pandemic, and IFR is frighteningly high. Especially in older populations.
saberdancer 6y ago
They don't ignore asymptomatic cases. IFR is calculated using symptomatic and asymptomatic cases. It's total % of people that die if they get infected, symptomatic or not. Studies are showing Covid-19 has IFR of 0.5-1% in western world (due to age). This means if 100% of England got infected, 0.5 to 1% would die. This is not counting that if hospitals got overwhelmed, IFR would increase.
iso1631 6y ago
The figures I used were median figure in the range, with modern intervention techniques (theraputic drugs etc) The range (95%ile I think) for 45-65 year old was 0.24% - 0.41%, median 0.32%. The full details are on the link.