5 ms·

Lockdowns are not bullshit. They are effective, unless we did a half ass job.

by kiba 6y ago

jrehor 6y ago
We did a half ass job. Everybody outside of East Asia did a half ass job or less.
- dkdk8283 6y ago
  East asia is a police state: have you seen how they treated black people? If east asia is the model you want the USA to follow I’m afraid of the politics your generation will bring.
  - sfmike 6y ago
    Taiwan Japan and Korea are police state? Didn't notice this. I noticed some cops helping a drunk guy into a tax. Also helping to find a lost cat. I guess this is what you mean by police state.
    - djsumdog 6y ago
      In South Korea the contact tracing led to people being found who were cheating on their partners. Some committed suicide. Moral questions aside, is that the world you want to live in? I personally don't even use an Android/eyePhone any more to avoid that dystopia.
  - freeflight 6y ago
    Last time I checked no other country locks up more people, at higher rates, in prisons it won't even let the UN inspect [0], than the US does. In no other country is one as likely to end up in prison as in the US. Neither can I think of many countries where police are more heavily armed, literally militarized [1], while killing people at rates that can only be estimated, as there are no state or federal statistics on that. Still doesn't stop some US Americans from seeing the "police state" everywhere, except at home. Even after over ten thousand people were arrested, thousands injured, many maimed, protesting against exactly that police state and its violence that disproportionately affects black people and other minorities. [0] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-rights-un-usa-torture-idUSKCN0WA2B8 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-rights-un-usa-torture-idU... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_Enforcement_Support_Office https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_Enforcement_Support_Office
dkdk8283 6y ago
Since you didn’t provide additive information I reaffirm lockdowns are bullshit.
orangecat 6y ago
Abstinence is effective at preventing STDs and pregancy, unless you're a sinner. Eating less and exercising more is effective at avoiding obesity, unless you're a lazy glutton. A plan that reliably fails when exposed to human nature is a bad plan.
- frenchy 6y ago
  Abstinence as the primary tool for birth control/STD prevention is stupid because we have better alternatives. If we didn't, abstience would be a lot more popular. We don't have good alternatives to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Edit: this isn't entirely true though, and there is a lot of grey area. For example, correctly masking & social distancing is a good alternative, but only in spaces where people can/are willing to do it properly.
- Klinky 6y ago
  It sounds like you're saying people who cannot follow lockdown are on par with "sinners" and/or "lazy gluttons", or maybe you're saying some people failing to do something is a good excuse for no one to do it?
- mensetmanusman 6y ago
  covid-induced insanity had me laughing maniacally at this comment
djsumdog 6y ago
There is literally no scientific evidence they've been effective at all. If you really dig, you find things like the Flaxman, et. al. paper (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2405-7 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2405-7) which falls apart if you try to apply it retroactively (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.22.20160341v3 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.22.20160341v...) not to mention the huge issues with the methodology (https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmed.2020.580361/full#B1 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmed.2020.58036...) On social media, people pass around pre-prints like this (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.24.20248802v2 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.24.20248802v...) on the "long COVID" narrative, which uses the mythology of self reporting on online forums. There is zero science on the effectiveness of lockdowns what so ever. the Great Barrington Declaration is a scientific counter to any pro-lockdown arguments as well. Everyone is saying "We didn't lockdown long and hard enough" .. which is just fucking insane at this point. Unless you're an island nation like NZ, there is literally no way to stop a virus that has entered our ecosystem at this scale. It took over 160 years between the development of the Jenner/Smallpox vaccine and its elimination, with a huge 20 year push in the 60s/70s. This thing will be with us for at least a decade or more to come, and we can't continue fooling ourselves into thinking we can just turn off society like gears in a machine with little to no consequences. Humans are not batteries with an on off switch.
- NickNameNick 6y ago
  People keep saying that lockdown and elimination strategies only work on islands, but I've yet to hear a compelling narrative why that should be the case. The only variations in the effectiveness of a lockdown strategy should be due to - Household size - Compliance levels - Duration Covered population, and population density should be completely irrelevant. You also need a seperate and ongoing strategy to prevent re-introduction, and an outbreak management strategy, but those are seperate concerns. Ideally, if your neighbouring countries/states/whatever were similarly effective, then re-introduction management shouldn't be too difficult (cf 'pacific travel bubble', etc).
  - josephcsible 6y ago

Lockdowns are not bullshit. They are effective, unless we did a half ass job.

by kiba 6y ago

Lockdowns are not bullshit. They are effective, unless we did a half ass job.

jrehor 6y ago

We did a half ass job. Everybody outside of East Asia did a half ass job or less.

dkdk8283 6y ago
East asia is a police state: have you seen how they treated black people? If east asia is the model you want the USA to follow I’m afraid of the politics your generation will bring.
- sfmike 6y ago
  Taiwan Japan and Korea are police state? Didn't notice this. I noticed some cops helping a drunk guy into a tax. Also helping to find a lost cat. I guess this is what you mean by police state.
  - djsumdog 6y ago
    In South Korea the contact tracing led to people being found who were cheating on their partners. Some committed suicide. Moral questions aside, is that the world you want to live in? I personally don't even use an Android/eyePhone any more to avoid that dystopia.
- freeflight 6y ago
  Last time I checked no other country locks up more people, at higher rates, in prisons it won't even let the UN inspect [0], than the US does. In no other country is one as likely to end up in prison as in the US. Neither can I think of many countries where police are more heavily armed, literally militarized [1], while killing people at rates that can only be estimated, as there are no state or federal statistics on that. Still doesn't stop some US Americans from seeing the "police state" everywhere, except at home. Even after over ten thousand people were arrested, thousands injured, many maimed, protesting against exactly that police state and its violence that disproportionately affects black people and other minorities. [0] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-rights-un-usa-torture-idUSKCN0WA2B8 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-rights-un-usa-torture-idU... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_Enforcement_Support_Office https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_Enforcement_Support_Office

dkdk8283 6y ago

Since you didn’t provide additive information I reaffirm lockdowns are bullshit.

orangecat 6y ago

Abstinence is effective at preventing STDs and pregancy, unless you're a sinner. Eating less and exercising more is effective at avoiding obesity, unless you're a lazy glutton. A plan that reliably fails when exposed to human nature is a bad plan.

frenchy 6y ago
Abstinence as the primary tool for birth control/STD prevention is stupid because we have better alternatives. If we didn't, abstience would be a lot more popular. We don't have good alternatives to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Edit: this isn't entirely true though, and there is a lot of grey area. For example, correctly masking & social distancing is a good alternative, but only in spaces where people can/are willing to do it properly.
Klinky 6y ago
It sounds like you're saying people who cannot follow lockdown are on par with "sinners" and/or "lazy gluttons", or maybe you're saying some people failing to do something is a good excuse for no one to do it?
mensetmanusman 6y ago
covid-induced insanity had me laughing maniacally at this comment

djsumdog 6y ago

There is literally no scientific evidence they've been effective at all. If you really dig, you find things like the Flaxman, et. al. paper (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2405-7 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2405-7) which falls apart if you try to apply it retroactively (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.22.20160341v3 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.22.20160341v...) not to mention the huge issues with the methodology (https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmed.2020.580361/full#B1 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmed.2020.58036...) On social media, people pass around pre-prints like this (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.24.20248802v2 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.24.20248802v...) on the "long COVID" narrative, which uses the mythology of self reporting on online forums. There is zero science on the effectiveness of lockdowns what so ever. the Great Barrington Declaration is a scientific counter to any pro-lockdown arguments as well. Everyone is saying "We didn't lockdown long and hard enough" .. which is just fucking insane at this point. Unless you're an island nation like NZ, there is literally no way to stop a virus that has entered our ecosystem at this scale. It took over 160 years between the development of the Jenner/Smallpox vaccine and its elimination, with a huge 20 year push in the 60s/70s. This thing will be with us for at least a decade or more to come, and we can't continue fooling ourselves into thinking we can just turn off society like gears in a machine with little to no consequences. Humans are not batteries with an on off switch.

NickNameNick 6y ago
People keep saying that lockdown and elimination strategies only work on islands, but I've yet to hear a compelling narrative why that should be the case. The only variations in the effectiveness of a lockdown strategy should be due to - Household size - Compliance levels - Duration Covered population, and population density should be completely irrelevant. You also need a seperate and ongoing strategy to prevent re-introduction, and an outbreak management strategy, but those are seperate concerns. Ideally, if your neighbouring countries/states/whatever were similarly effective, then re-introduction management shouldn't be too difficult (cf 'pacific travel bubble', etc).
- josephcsible 6y ago