4 ms·

What's so magical about 5? Why not 4x or 6x. 2x safer will be 500,000 lives saved yearly. We can see that even 1.25x safer is very significant. Just weird seein

What's so magical about 5? Why not 4x or 6x. 2x safer will be 500,000 lives saved yearly. We can see that even 1.25x safer is very significant. Just weird seeing that magic number 5x...

Traster 6y ago
I don't think it's useful to talk about global traffic deaths in this context. Since obviously regulation will change by country, the difficulty of developing self driving will change by country, and road safety varies enormously by country. The US is likely to get self-driving first, but is already way safer than the average country, and the countries where deaths are higher are less likely to be able to afford the roll out of self-driving cars. In the US there are ~36,000 deaths from motorvehicle accidents. To give some context, America could improve their fatality right by 5x by bringing themselves into line with the safety standards observed in Western Europe whose fatality rate is already at around 2.7 per 100,000 people. It's also important to remember that self-driving is likely to represent the safest journeys - highway commutes etc.
Tempest1981 6y ago
Something psychological I guess? Or maybe one group said 2x and another said 10x? > psychological mechanisms influencing the decision-making regarding acceptable risk
sliken 6y ago
Not magical, but you have to pick something. I suspect the goal is to pick a number that most would think is better than an experienced, awake, attentive (not looking at a phone) human at the wheel. So even the safest drivers would be safer on the road as the number of autonomous driven cars increases. At only 1.25x it might well be worse than you. Keep in mind that the average safe human driver includes people that are tired, high, drunk, unlicensed, mentally ill, physically compromised, etc. While common, someone getting killed because someone is drunk or asleep is much more acceptable than having a computer make a mistake. If we want society as a whole to accept autonomous cars it's best to show a clear benefit to society, not just better than 51% of drivers.

What's so magical about 5? Why not 4x or 6x. 2x safer will be 500,000 lives saved yearly. We can see that even 1.25x safer is very significant. Just weird seeing that magic number 5x...

Traster 6y ago

I don't think it's useful to talk about global traffic deaths in this context. Since obviously regulation will change by country, the difficulty of developing self driving will change by country, and road safety varies enormously by country. The US is likely to get self-driving first, but is already way safer than the average country, and the countries where deaths are higher are less likely to be able to afford the roll out of self-driving cars. In the US there are ~36,000 deaths from motorvehicle accidents. To give some context, America could improve their fatality right by 5x by bringing themselves into line with the safety standards observed in Western Europe whose fatality rate is already at around 2.7 per 100,000 people. It's also important to remember that self-driving is likely to represent the safest journeys - highway commutes etc.

Tempest1981 6y ago

Something psychological I guess? Or maybe one group said 2x and another said 10x? > psychological mechanisms influencing the decision-making regarding acceptable risk

sliken 6y ago

Not magical, but you have to pick something. I suspect the goal is to pick a number that most would think is better than an experienced, awake, attentive (not looking at a phone) human at the wheel. So even the safest drivers would be safer on the road as the number of autonomous driven cars increases. At only 1.25x it might well be worse than you. Keep in mind that the average safe human driver includes people that are tired, high, drunk, unlicensed, mentally ill, physically compromised, etc. While common, someone getting killed because someone is drunk or asleep is much more acceptable than having a computer make a mistake. If we want society as a whole to accept autonomous cars it's best to show a clear benefit to society, not just better than 51% of drivers.