4 ms·

I don't get why this is news.. the ARJ21 has been flying commercially in China since 2016. So another airline bought some and started flying it... and? Anyway,

by sho 6y ago

I don't get why this is news.. the ARJ21 has been flying commercially in China since 2016. So another airline bought some and started flying it... and? Anyway, China still can't make the complex parts, like engines, which I believe it sources from Russia.

ma2rten 6y ago
If I understand correctly the news is about their new plane the C919.
missedthecue 6y ago
They are making their own engines now. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aero_Engine_Corporation_of_China https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aero_Engine_Corporation_of_C...
- bluedino 6y ago
  Copies of 50/60's engines from France and Russia?
  - ardy42 6y ago
    > Copies of 50/60's engines from France and Russia? You have to start somewhere. I mean, it's not like new software developers start off writing state of the art programs. They write a hello world program like everyone else, and build up from there. Same thing with spinning up industrial capacity in a new area. Also, IIRC, a lot of the tricky high tech in jet engine production isn't so much in the engines themselves, but in the manufacturing process of the components and materials. That means reverse engineering will only get you so far.
    - Pasorrijer 6y ago
      And maintenance. The biggest differentiator between American and Russian aircraft is that the American aircraft were better maintained. The Russian aircraft were likely more reliable for their given level of maintenance... but they were very, very poorly maintained.
      - varjag 6y ago
        No, right until the fall of USSR, Aeroflot fleets were properly maintained. American aviation had technological advantage at any point in history.
    - keanebean86 6y ago
      Yeah exactly metallurgy is really hard. There's not really a software equivalence except maybe some magic algorithm could possibly fit but it's a stretch. As a seemingly simple example it was only a few years ago that china got good enough at metals to make good pen tips: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/01/18/finally-china-manufactures-a-ballpoint-pen-all-by-itself/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/01/18... Edit: metallurgy
      - ardy42 6y ago
        > Yeah exactly metrology is really hard. I'm a little confused. Do you mean metallurgy?
        dlgeek 6y ago
        Metrology is the science of measurement. In context, it means machining very, very precise parts with super-tight tolerances.
        keanebean86 6y ago
        I just used the wrong word. It was a typo and I fixed it.
        keanebean86 6y ago
        Yes I'll edit my comment.
      - dirtyid 6y ago
        >a few years ago that china got good enough at metals to make good pen tips: IMO this anecdote has been severely misinterpreted by western media. The narrative seems to be lol China only learned to make ball point pen recently, when really it was Premier LiKeQiang politicized importance of precision manufacturing for national security, and 2 years later Chinese industry developed tungsten carbide manufacturing capabilities for advanced munitions. There was no economically sensible reason for domestic ballpoint manufacturing, the entire market dominated by Japan and Swiss was only worth 20M. Zero rationale for Chinese industry to coordinate tons of resources for this project outside of national security. The TLDR should be China is scarily efficient at pursing national security goals. That said metallurgy for engines is hard. My impressions from following Chinese aviation and semiconductor development is that engines are harder. At least on the military front there has been a lot of movement in domestic turbofans this year, they're sufficiently performant, and exceeds in some categories that it looks like they will be replacing Russian engines going forward.
    - dv_dt 6y ago
      I would suspect that materials science is underfunded in the West as is any endeavor that takes long investment for long term payoff. China and Japan have been extremely good at patient long-view investment.
  - sudosysgen 6y ago
    Their latest copies are of the CFM56, which is 70s/80s. The CJ-1000A is a mix of the CFM56 and the CFM LEAP, so if it works it will bring them to 2000s' level of engine tech.
    - lstodd 6y ago
      Well, they still didn't manage to replicate the AL-31 despite massive leaks of documentation _and_ it being a late-70-s design. What makes you think they would fare better with the CFM56 which is of the same vintage? There was much boasting for the last ten years, but nothing actually serviceable.
      - dirtyid 6y ago
        New batch J10s have switched to indigenous WS-10B, the AL31 replacement, early this year. WS-10s was being used on twin engine J16s and J11 years before that.
      - sudosysgen 6y ago
        The AL-31 was first put into service in 1981, and of course that isn't the same version that is being built under licence (not stolen - they bought the rights to it). That being said, the WS-10 is thought to now be operational, and has been fitted on operational airplanes successfully for almost a decade. So that fits perfectly with them being at 70s/80s level of tech for established, used engines.
        lstodd 6y ago
        > and has been fitted on operational airplanes successfully for almost a decade Sort of hard to believe this given the Chinese were buying AL-31FNs by the thousands since early 2010s. As it is, I think they hit the metallurgical problems with the hot part from the get go and are struggling with them ever since. Given that the hot part (final compressor stages, combustion and the turbines) aren't that dissimilar from the cores of commercial turbofans I'm inclined to think it's all hot air as is was for the last 10-20 years. Sure they can assemble some CFM56 derivatives around imported cores and that's it.
  - rasz 6y ago
    So just like the majority of private US aviation then. Nothing says progress like manufacturing "new" Cessna and Robinson aircrafts in 2020 using unchanged designs from the fifties.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
- LargoLasskhyfv 6y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aero_Engine_Corporation_of_China#Controversy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aero_Engine_Corporation_of_Chi... The United States Department of Defense believes the AECC is linked to the People's Liberation Army.[5] In November 2020, Donald Trump issued an executive order prohibiting any American company or individual from owning shares in companies that the United States Department of Defense has listed as having links to the People's Liberation Army, which included Aero Engine Corporation of China.[6][7][8] Err... LOL? And the the US MIC isn't? Their TLAs aren't using espionage to outbid competitors? /me giggles...
whoevercares 6y ago
Chances are China might still not be able to make complex engine in the next 20 years with focuses on AI and decline of manufacturing. IT/Engineers positions earns 5x more and there are lots more positions than mechanic engineer
- whimsicalism 6y ago
  China has over a billion people in rapidly improving material conditions. I suspect they will be able to make a complex engine in 20 years.
fallingfrog 6y ago
It won’t take them long to develop that capability. So far there hasn’t been anything they can’t do.

by sho 6y ago

ma2rten 6y ago

If I understand correctly the news is about their new plane the C919.

missedthecue 6y ago

They are making their own engines now. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aero_Engine_Corporation_of_China https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aero_Engine_Corporation_of_C...

bluedino 6y ago
Copies of 50/60's engines from France and Russia?
- ardy42 6y ago
  > Copies of 50/60's engines from France and Russia? You have to start somewhere. I mean, it's not like new software developers start off writing state of the art programs. They write a hello world program like everyone else, and build up from there. Same thing with spinning up industrial capacity in a new area. Also, IIRC, a lot of the tricky high tech in jet engine production isn't so much in the engines themselves, but in the manufacturing process of the components and materials. That means reverse engineering will only get you so far.
  - Pasorrijer 6y ago
    And maintenance. The biggest differentiator between American and Russian aircraft is that the American aircraft were better maintained. The Russian aircraft were likely more reliable for their given level of maintenance... but they were very, very poorly maintained.
    - varjag 6y ago
      No, right until the fall of USSR, Aeroflot fleets were properly maintained. American aviation had technological advantage at any point in history.
  - keanebean86 6y ago
    Yeah exactly metallurgy is really hard. There's not really a software equivalence except maybe some magic algorithm could possibly fit but it's a stretch. As a seemingly simple example it was only a few years ago that china got good enough at metals to make good pen tips: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/01/18/finally-china-manufactures-a-ballpoint-pen-all-by-itself/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/01/18... Edit: metallurgy
    - ardy42 6y ago
      > Yeah exactly metrology is really hard. I'm a little confused. Do you mean metallurgy?
      - dlgeek 6y ago
        Metrology is the science of measurement. In context, it means machining very, very precise parts with super-tight tolerances.
        keanebean86 6y ago
        I just used the wrong word. It was a typo and I fixed it.
      - keanebean86 6y ago
        Yes I'll edit my comment.
    - dirtyid 6y ago
      >a few years ago that china got good enough at metals to make good pen tips: IMO this anecdote has been severely misinterpreted by western media. The narrative seems to be lol China only learned to make ball point pen recently, when really it was Premier LiKeQiang politicized importance of precision manufacturing for national security, and 2 years later Chinese industry developed tungsten carbide manufacturing capabilities for advanced munitions. There was no economically sensible reason for domestic ballpoint manufacturing, the entire market dominated by Japan and Swiss was only worth 20M. Zero rationale for Chinese industry to coordinate tons of resources for this project outside of national security. The TLDR should be China is scarily efficient at pursing national security goals. That said metallurgy for engines is hard. My impressions from following Chinese aviation and semiconductor development is that engines are harder. At least on the military front there has been a lot of movement in domestic turbofans this year, they're sufficiently performant, and exceeds in some categories that it looks like they will be replacing Russian engines going forward.
  - dv_dt 6y ago
    I would suspect that materials science is underfunded in the West as is any endeavor that takes long investment for long term payoff. China and Japan have been extremely good at patient long-view investment.
- sudosysgen 6y ago
  Their latest copies are of the CFM56, which is 70s/80s. The CJ-1000A is a mix of the CFM56 and the CFM LEAP, so if it works it will bring them to 2000s' level of engine tech.
  - lstodd 6y ago
    Well, they still didn't manage to replicate the AL-31 despite massive leaks of documentation _and_ it being a late-70-s design. What makes you think they would fare better with the CFM56 which is of the same vintage? There was much boasting for the last ten years, but nothing actually serviceable.
    - dirtyid 6y ago
      New batch J10s have switched to indigenous WS-10B, the AL31 replacement, early this year. WS-10s was being used on twin engine J16s and J11 years before that.
    - sudosysgen 6y ago
      The AL-31 was first put into service in 1981, and of course that isn't the same version that is being built under licence (not stolen - they bought the rights to it). That being said, the WS-10 is thought to now be operational, and has been fitted on operational airplanes successfully for almost a decade. So that fits perfectly with them being at 70s/80s level of tech for established, used engines.
      - lstodd 6y ago
        > and has been fitted on operational airplanes successfully for almost a decade Sort of hard to believe this given the Chinese were buying AL-31FNs by the thousands since early 2010s. As it is, I think they hit the metallurgical problems with the hot part from the get go and are struggling with them ever since. Given that the hot part (final compressor stages, combustion and the turbines) aren't that dissimilar from the cores of commercial turbofans I'm inclined to think it's all hot air as is was for the last 10-20 years. Sure they can assemble some CFM56 derivatives around imported cores and that's it.
- rasz 6y ago
  So just like the majority of private US aviation then. Nothing says progress like manufacturing "new" Cessna and Robinson aircrafts in 2020 using unchanged designs from the fifties.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
LargoLasskhyfv 6y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aero_Engine_Corporation_of_China#Controversy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aero_Engine_Corporation_of_Chi... The United States Department of Defense believes the AECC is linked to the People's Liberation Army.[5] In November 2020, Donald Trump issued an executive order prohibiting any American company or individual from owning shares in companies that the United States Department of Defense has listed as having links to the People's Liberation Army, which included Aero Engine Corporation of China.[6][7][8] Err... LOL? And the the US MIC isn't? Their TLAs aren't using espionage to outbid competitors? /me giggles...

whoevercares 6y ago

Chances are China might still not be able to make complex engine in the next 20 years with focuses on AI and decline of manufacturing. IT/Engineers positions earns 5x more and there are lots more positions than mechanic engineer

whimsicalism 6y ago
China has over a billion people in rapidly improving material conditions. I suspect they will be able to make a complex engine in 20 years.

fallingfrog 6y ago

It won’t take them long to develop that capability. So far there hasn’t been anything they can’t do.