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Behaving as a human would is often more important than staying strictly in line with absolute and relative positioning with a road. The semi-permanent snow cov

Behaving as a human would is often more important than staying strictly in line with absolute and relative positioning with a road. The semi-permanent snow cover on many roads in 1/3 of the USA that lasts weeks if not months in duration. Humans driving on these snow covered roads form emergent lanes having little to do with absolute positioning or even relative positioning of the curb. They form lanes based on what other humans do. Self-driving cars that depend on knowing absolutely where they are and relatively where they are simply don't and won't function. We need self-driving cars that can behave as a human will for that. And that is a long way off. No autonomous car has shown it can handle these common situations. Until then self-driving cars should not be approved nationally and probably be restricted to the arid and warm states that do not have winter.

randmeerkat 6y ago
Tesla just dropped a snow driving beta: https://www.teslaoracle.com/2020/12/29/fsd-beta-8-tested-for-self-driving-performance-in-snowy-conditions/ https://www.teslaoracle.com/2020/12/29/fsd-beta-8-tested-for...
rootusrootus 6y ago
I think this is a good point. The best lesson my dad ever gave me back when I was learning how to drive was to 'be predictable.' People don't get in wrecks when everyone behaves as expected. And the rules of the road are largely aimed at guiding that predictability. But in the end, regardless of the written rules, humans behave as humans and a robot driver should behave like other drivers. And it may change based on locality.
cmrdporcupine 6y ago
Yes, exactly, this is always the same example I give (in my case the 401 here in Ontario, Canada) -- blizzard in the middle of February, lane markings covered, highly unpredictable road surface, spontaneous temporary lanes, cars working at a crawl, snow plows coming through that you have to move over for, and can't pass, cars or trucks jack-knifed or half in the ditch. This kind of thing happens to varying degrees at least once a year, and I honestly don't think that these scenarios are actually properly in the imagination of the primarily-California-based engineers who work on self-driving. For context, the greater Toronto region is 6 million people, and Great Lakes region from here over to Chicago is multiples of that. Winter is 4-6 months. This is not an insignificant edge case for a small population, and if self-driving can't handle it, no thanks from this driver.
- renewiltord 6y ago
  Yeah, you will be last in line. An insignificant market with high entry costs. You won't have to decline, you won't get the chance. You're probably behind Tahoe in the line. Just like you don't get Google Fi or Google Fibre. And just like some countries don't get YouTube Premium or whatever.
  - cmrdporcupine 6y ago
    Nice snark, but what I said applies to the bulk of the US northeast and midwest as well. (As for Google Fibre, that's a fun one as I actually worked on that product, though of course I couldn't get it...)
    - renewiltord 6y ago
      It isn't snark. It's just blunt truth. Those places won't get it first either. If self driving cars come about, their full feature set may well be geo-limited. Even covering just California, Arizona, and Texas would make the technology amazing. Not to speak of the Chinese, who will simply build their cities to include road beacons or whatever is necessary to keep AVs effective.
      - cmrdporcupine 6y ago
        I'm sorry but it's troll-level behaviour to slap the "insignificant market share" label on the entire northeast and midwest which includes 6/10 of the largest "urban agglomerations in North America": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_urban_agglomerations_in_North_America https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_urban_aggl...
        renewiltord 6y ago
        You're just not important enough for how hard it is. Why is that so offensive to you? You don't even want it and you're upset no one cares to offer it to you? Bizarre. Is this like not being invited to a party you didn't want to go to? Okay, then, maybe Tesla's snow driving test will give you the chance to ostentatiously decline.
albntomat0 6y ago
Does self-driving have to handle all weather conditions right away? A sensible implementation needs to take the current conditions into account, such as the weather and the status of the road and car. If those are bad, it would refuse to active itself, similarly to how a responsible human would choose to not drive in bad conditions.
- ghaff 6y ago
  Driving in a whiteout blizzard is one thing. But people do need to get around in northern states in the winter and they absolutely sometimes have to drive in snow (and sometimes snow happens mid-trip or you have to get home from another location). I certainly don't go out of my way to dive in substantial snow (and fortunately I don't need to commute any longer) but it sometimes happens. If it's just the autonomous system that doesn't work that's fine but now you really can't depend on the car unless there's a competent licensed driver who can take over.
  - albntomat0 6y ago
    I think we're in agreement. My comment was in reference to a more advanced version of what exists currently: a car that can be driven manually and always requires a licensed driver, but can activate its automation on command. I think we'll have versions like that for a long while before we arrive at autonomous vehicles that do not require a licensed driver at all.
- cmrdporcupine 6y ago
  No, they do not need to operate in those conditions, but we have people seriously making proclamations about the imminent end of the truck driving employment industry as we know it, because "trucks will have no need for drivers." Those people are fantastically wrong. And that's just one example.
  - albntomat0 6y ago
    Definitely not all truck driving, but an autonomous truck that's able to handle highway driving in good weather is a much easier problem that would put a significant number of truck drivers out of work

randmeerkat 6y ago

Tesla just dropped a snow driving beta: https://www.teslaoracle.com/2020/12/29/fsd-beta-8-tested-for-self-driving-performance-in-snowy-conditions/ https://www.teslaoracle.com/2020/12/29/fsd-beta-8-tested-for...

rootusrootus 6y ago

I think this is a good point. The best lesson my dad ever gave me back when I was learning how to drive was to 'be predictable.' People don't get in wrecks when everyone behaves as expected. And the rules of the road are largely aimed at guiding that predictability. But in the end, regardless of the written rules, humans behave as humans and a robot driver should behave like other drivers. And it may change based on locality.

cmrdporcupine 6y ago

Yes, exactly, this is always the same example I give (in my case the 401 here in Ontario, Canada) -- blizzard in the middle of February, lane markings covered, highly unpredictable road surface, spontaneous temporary lanes, cars working at a crawl, snow plows coming through that you have to move over for, and can't pass, cars or trucks jack-knifed or half in the ditch. This kind of thing happens to varying degrees at least once a year, and I honestly don't think that these scenarios are actually properly in the imagination of the primarily-California-based engineers who work on self-driving. For context, the greater Toronto region is 6 million people, and Great Lakes region from here over to Chicago is multiples of that. Winter is 4-6 months. This is not an insignificant edge case for a small population, and if self-driving can't handle it, no thanks from this driver.

renewiltord 6y ago
Yeah, you will be last in line. An insignificant market with high entry costs. You won't have to decline, you won't get the chance. You're probably behind Tahoe in the line. Just like you don't get Google Fi or Google Fibre. And just like some countries don't get YouTube Premium or whatever.
- cmrdporcupine 6y ago
  Nice snark, but what I said applies to the bulk of the US northeast and midwest as well. (As for Google Fibre, that's a fun one as I actually worked on that product, though of course I couldn't get it...)
  - renewiltord 6y ago
    It isn't snark. It's just blunt truth. Those places won't get it first either. If self driving cars come about, their full feature set may well be geo-limited. Even covering just California, Arizona, and Texas would make the technology amazing. Not to speak of the Chinese, who will simply build their cities to include road beacons or whatever is necessary to keep AVs effective.
    - cmrdporcupine 6y ago
      I'm sorry but it's troll-level behaviour to slap the "insignificant market share" label on the entire northeast and midwest which includes 6/10 of the largest "urban agglomerations in North America": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_urban_agglomerations_in_North_America https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_urban_aggl...
      - renewiltord 6y ago
        You're just not important enough for how hard it is. Why is that so offensive to you? You don't even want it and you're upset no one cares to offer it to you? Bizarre. Is this like not being invited to a party you didn't want to go to? Okay, then, maybe Tesla's snow driving test will give you the chance to ostentatiously decline.

albntomat0 6y ago

Does self-driving have to handle all weather conditions right away? A sensible implementation needs to take the current conditions into account, such as the weather and the status of the road and car. If those are bad, it would refuse to active itself, similarly to how a responsible human would choose to not drive in bad conditions.

ghaff 6y ago
Driving in a whiteout blizzard is one thing. But people do need to get around in northern states in the winter and they absolutely sometimes have to drive in snow (and sometimes snow happens mid-trip or you have to get home from another location). I certainly don't go out of my way to dive in substantial snow (and fortunately I don't need to commute any longer) but it sometimes happens. If it's just the autonomous system that doesn't work that's fine but now you really can't depend on the car unless there's a competent licensed driver who can take over.
- albntomat0 6y ago
  I think we're in agreement. My comment was in reference to a more advanced version of what exists currently: a car that can be driven manually and always requires a licensed driver, but can activate its automation on command. I think we'll have versions like that for a long while before we arrive at autonomous vehicles that do not require a licensed driver at all.
cmrdporcupine 6y ago
No, they do not need to operate in those conditions, but we have people seriously making proclamations about the imminent end of the truck driving employment industry as we know it, because "trucks will have no need for drivers." Those people are fantastically wrong. And that's just one example.
- albntomat0 6y ago
  Definitely not all truck driving, but an autonomous truck that's able to handle highway driving in good weather is a much easier problem that would put a significant number of truck drivers out of work